Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[South Texas Storms]

That's probably the old run that you're looking at. The new run should be plotting on weather.us here in a few minutes.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/usa-east/precipitation-6h-in/20180902-0600z.html

[Clearcloudz]

00Z ICON Precipitation accumulation map

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/2018090200/usa-east/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

[djones65]

Without a surface low pressure area.... what would any agency be tracking? Think about it... the coordinates don't come out of the a@@ air???
Of course there must be a trackable low level entity....
"A few puff of clouds" declared an invest... bull... only if there was a trackable low level circulation to detect....
SMH

[MississippiWx]

Without a surface low pressure area.... what would any agency be tracking? Think about it... the coordinates don't come out of the a@@ air???
Of course there must be a trackable low level entity....
"A few puff of clouds" declared an invest... bull... only if there was a trackable low level circulation to detect....
SMH

You don’t have to believe it, but what we’ve told you is the truth about invests.

[djones65]

Regardless of what you believe about invest designations...
This system is something to monitor of course... but it doesn't have a very high ceiling... based on models, and movement...
Like I said, the NHC has a great grasp on this system and is giving it a coin flip of developing into a tropical cyclone. It's main potential is flooding rains, but I see no models that stall this system for significant period of time. This is good news in my opinion.
But if invest designations can be pulled out of the "a@@ air" then why not just designate every system models show potential development. They must have a low level entity to track... and thus far... this system obviously doesn't meet that requirement...

[Clearcloudz]

00Z UKMET on weather.us precipitation accumulation map. putting down 30 inches of rain in new orleans

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2018090200/usa-east/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-0000z.html

[MississippiWx]

00Z UKMET on weather.us precipitation accumulation map. putting down 30 inches of rain in new orleans

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2018090200/usa-east/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-0000z.html

And here is the biggest reason why this could be a lot bigger deal than some people are giving it credit. New Orleans could not handle that much rain...

[Clearcloudz]

00Z UKMET on weather.us precipitation accumulation map. putting down 30 inches of rain in new orleans

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2018090200/usa-east/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-0000z.html

And here is the biggest reason why this could be a lot bigger deal than some people are giving it credit. New Orleans could not handle that much rain...

100 percent agree with you.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Well, we just might come close to the page record if this system fails to "meet invest requirements" for a little longer.

[cycloneye]

2 AM=30%/60%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Clearcloudz]

ECMWF was one of the first models to show extreme rainfall totals and now we have the UKMET on the 00Z run showing that potential as well. Consistency is key and so now if the 00Z ECMWF continues to show that then it cannot be ignored even if this system doesn't become a hurricane.

[SoupBone]

ECMWF was one of the first models to show extreme rainfall totals and now we have the UKMET on the 00Z run showing that potential as well. Consistency is key and so now if the 00Z ECMWF continues to show that then it cannot be ignored even if this system doesn't become a hurricane.

Or, you know, the GFS and FV3-GFS is right, and it scoots on out quickly.

[Cpv17]

I think we’ll see the Euro start to cave more towards the GFS tonight. Models have all shifted east today.

[Clearcloudz]

ECMWF was one of the first models to show extreme rainfall totals and now we have the UKMET on the 00Z run showing that potential as well. Consistency is key and so now if the 00Z ECMWF continues to show that then it cannot be ignored even if this system doesn't become a hurricane.

Or, you know, the GFS and FV3-GFS is right, and it scoots on out quickly.

Best Case Scenario.

[Steve]

Hard to see how the UK rain totals would be right here unless we stayed under ridiculous nonstop moisture bands coming in from the east side. It seems like it’s just moving to fast for that amount of rain here. Maybe farther west if it got caught. JMO

[Cpv17]

Hard to see how the UK rain totals would be right here unless we stayed under ridiculous nonstop moisture bands coming in from the east side. It seems like it’s just moving to fast for that amount of rain here. Maybe farther west if it got caught. JMO

Yeah I wouldn’t really put much stock into it at this point. NOLA is definitely gonna get a lot of rain over the next week though, but I doubt that much.

[SoupBone]

Hard to see how the UK rain totals would be right here unless we stayed under ridiculous nonstop moisture bands coming in from the east side. It seems like it’s just moving to fast for that amount of rain here. Maybe farther west if it got caught. JMO

People talk about Hurricane Katrina for New Orleans as its worst case scenario, and I lived and worked through Katrina in the city. But a slow mover dumping over 2 feet of water over such a short amount of time would devastate the city's infrastructure. I'm hoping the GFS is right. San Antonio to Houston, nor New Orleans needs this kind of rainmaker. Even with Texas under a drought.

[Cpv17]

Euro is already starting to develop this through 24 hours SE of Florida.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF is weaker.

[Cpv17]

ECMWF is weaker.

More in line with the GFS now in terms of intensity.