2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

0z GEFS... I don't think I need to say much before comments about SFL begin
https://i.postimg.cc/prc6ChBW/gefs-2024-08-20-00-Z-336-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Looks like at least three distinct clusters on there, and fairly visible on Tropical Tidbits map https://i.imgur.com/8PBlrfR.png

Time for work. That is a signal. 3 clusters. Not saying it happens, but the member near Miami, that is always interesting. The signal for activity in early September is picking up.

[aspen]

Welp, look at that. We hit August 20th and suddenly the models light up again.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Finally seeing signs of the long-awaited "switch" on the models in the long range.

[toad strangler]

The 6z GFS ensembles are bubbling with activity in the W basin long range. (1st week of September)

[SFLcane]

The 6z GFS ensembles are bubbling with activity in the W basin long range. (1st week of September)

[LarryWx]

Probably not worth that much but fwiw the last 4 Euro-AIFS suggest the area around Luis (PR) may have to watch for a nearby TC ~Sep 3. Again, fwiw.

Will be interesting to see what todays Euro weeklies show after yesterday’s sudden pretty sharp downturn (ACE fell to 28 from 40, which is about where it had been for 7 days) for 3 weeks ending mid Sep. So, it still had some activity but was BN. Was that just a blip?

[Teban54]

The 6z GFS ensembles are bubbling with activity in the W basin long range. (1st week of September)

https://i.postimg.cc/GhZND8q9/IMG-9281.png

The ensembles are also much further south of the operational GFS, and much less of a clear-cut recurve.

[skyline385]

I said August has been dead since Ernesto. I didn't say this year was dead. I lost power 5 days in Beryl. I am saying after an active start, this year has slowed considerably. If you read my posts you'd see I am looking into September for an upturn and I still expect above average ACE and NS, just well below the April-June forecast of a near record active season. Please read in context.

You said literally "just noting how dead this year is."
And while we are at it, Ernesto is still alive so how can it be dead since Ernesto?

I'm not trying to nudge you. I'm just confused at some of your statements. I'm sure you understand it all. Maybe typing too fast?

Ernesto passed Bermuda, and is now causing high surf and riptides, but is moving away from Newfoundland and isn't really tropical anymore. I'm more addressing people that for at least 7 days plus now looking at 15 day ensembles, seeing one or two members with a storm, and calling it a signal. There is a signal now, but it isn't until the very end of August, most likely September. Posting a cluster of 1010 mb 20-30 knot ensemble members with a couple of strong members, not much of a signal. There is a signal, but beyond 10 days.

The GoM signal on the Euro is in 5 days.

The MDR wave developing in the models comes offshore in 2-3 days and it is too early to assume that it won't develop for another week after that. 6z GFS first develops it at 168hrs or 7 days from now which is also close to when the Euro 0z showed a tight vorticity signature.

These are all the first runs showing the switch flip. Models will uptrend a bit more in the next few days as more of the the changing conditions enter initialization. This happens every single year. Just look at 6z GFS vs 0z GFS as an example.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS with another Bermuda hurricane. Cat 3 this time.

Ensembles with most of the action east of 70W but all have a couple members in GOM or SFL. Still, not bad for this time of year.

[Teban54]

12z ICON continues to spin up a brief TD/TS near 45W in 3 days. This time, there's also a low near 30W around the same time frame, which is a little bit more pronounced than earlier runs. It's still the only model that show either system developing this far east.

Fun fact... If both become short-lived named storms as well as the ECMWF GoM system, the possible MDR long-tracker that GFS, GEFS and some EPS members are showing would become the I storm. Of course, that's very unlikely and pure speculation at this point.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: again looks rather active for first few days of Sept.

[TomballEd]

The 6z GFS ensembles are bubbling with activity in the W basin long range. (1st week of September)

https://i.postimg.cc/GhZND8q9/IMG-9281.png

It isn't until September, but there is a consensus for one or more MDR storms GEFS mean ridge would seem to put E GOMEX up the East Coast in play early September. The missing image is the STR extending almost all the way to Florida.

[SFLcane]

The 6z GFS ensembles are bubbling with activity in the W basin long range. (1st week of September)

https://i.postimg.cc/GhZND8q9/IMG-9281.png

It isn't until September, but there is a consensus for one or more MDR storms GEFS mean ridge would seem to put E GOMEX up the East Coast in play early September. The missing image is the STR extending almost all the way to Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024082012/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_us_56.png

You can use this to post images and just add the img tags

https://postimages.org/

[ConvergenceZone]

The question is, will the Bermuda High continue to be weak as WxMan pointed out and allow the Atlantic storms that form to recurve? I guess we will know before too long.

[Teban54]

FWIW, 12z operational GFS drops all hurricanes from the past two runs, except for a TS trying to intensify offshore Tampa Bay that ran out of time. 12z GEFS still seems to show a similar number of strong members at 16 days, but the tracks seem further SW, and it also seems to have a slightly stronger preference for a later wave than recent runs (which results in delayed development). It also shows a few more strong hurricanes in the Caribbean proper.

Keep in mind, this is a period of time when models can flip-flop often, especially at the lead times we're discussing.

[Stratton23]

it also depends on where it forms, a weaker bermuda high doesn’t necessarily mean a recurve is likely, especially if a wave waits to develop in the western part of the caribbean, just have to watch and see how this plays out, but its about to get busy

[crownweather]

12Z EPS for Labor Day looks pretty active IMHO

[IcyTundra]

12Z EPS for Labor Day looks pretty active IMHO

https://i.postimg.cc/V6tqppgz/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-318.png

It sure does the basin will be more favorable by then for sure.

[Stratton23]

ICON and Euro both show some slight development of the mid level disturbance that crosses the gulf next week, as the energy pinches off from the trough and moves into the gulf, the ICON and Euro models do attempt to tighten up the vorticity signature just a bit, while most guidance really doesnt show development, it will be crossing over the hottest part of the gulf as it moves west towards texas, has 2-2.5 days over water, worth watching as upper lows over the gulf can be very tricky and sometimes develop even when models dont expect it

[Blown Away]

It’s been a while since we had a true happy hour 18z GFS… I think we are due!!