![up arrow :uarrow:](./images/smilies/icon_arrowu.gif)
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1143915014992121862
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Ntxw wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Lack of coherent MC convection, is more Nino-ish (no surprise there) and South Pacific cooler (Nina-like sort of). But then again, would you expect anything different than a Nino with the label "Modoki" which means not the same?
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.
The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.
https://i.imgur.com/MwZDaqc.png
Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that
Kingarabian wrote:2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
Ntxw wrote:Kingarabian wrote:2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
2017 was coming out of the 2016-2017 Nina though. So it didn't take much to get back to the second Nina (2017-2018). The base start now is different.
Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.
The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.
https://i.imgur.com/MwZDaqc.png
Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that
2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
Code: Select all
June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00
Code: Select all
June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
LarryWx wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
King,
I'm estimating SLPs for June of 2019 as follows: Tahiti 1013.5, Darwin 1013.75. For Junes, avg. Tahiti is ~1014.0 and avg. Darwin is only ~1012.7. So, they both are consistent with somewhat favoring El Nino for the upcoming fall although Darwin moreso.
So, I looked at June Darwin SLPs as per this link:
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/ ... nmslp.html
- Only 9 of the last 143 Junes had a higher SLP at Darwin
- In the range of 1013.5-1014.0: 1885, 1911, 1914, 1929, 1940, 1941, 1949, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1988, 1993, 2011, 2017, 2018; 9 of these 15 had oncoming Nino, 2 neutral, 4 Nina
June SOI will be ~-10.
- Only 22 of the last 143 Junes had sub -10
- These were in the -8 to -12 range: 1882, 1899, 1911, 1914, 1919, 1946, 1949, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2012, 2015, 2017; 8 of these 17 had oncoming Nino, 6 neutral, 3 Nina
NotSparta wrote:Not saying this will happen, but fwiw, all these yrs had a -ENSO (ENS ONI < saw0 DJF) by the end of the yr
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1145375919512662016
Users browsing this forum: Brent, Cpv17, Craters, galvbay, HurakaYoshi, HurricaneBelle, jgh, KirbyDude25, MetroMike, ouragans, SFLcane, sphelps8681, Wampadawg, wwizard and 108 guests