2015 Global model runs discussion

stormlover2013 · #1101 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:44 pm

What are the euro ensembles showing?

#1102 Postby **crownweather** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:52 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:What are the euro ensembles showing?

I can't post the actual maps but the Euro Ensemble TC Probability charts show 40% chance for TD development in Bay of Campeche by 9/27 with a forward motion slant towards the NNE & NE towards the north-central/northeast US Gulf Coast.

#1103 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:54 pm

I also agree with Gatorcane although you have to give shear the benefit of the doubt because there has been so much of it in the Western basin this year. Having said that, you pretty much need shear in the Gulf to get a hybrid system in most cases. That's the nature of the beast. Sure, once in a while a cold core can transfer to warm through warming processes in the Gulf, but you see that more in the open Atlantic. Additionally, besides shear being a near requirement for Gulf subtropical systems (not saying this will or won't be that), it also matters where the shear is relative to low pressure center(s). People forget that shear can be an enhancing factor just like it can blow the top off a system. It depends on the juxtaposition. StormExpert, I'm looking your way. You are an expert and should know that.

HURRICANELONNY · #1104 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:01 pm

caneman wrote:Agreed Gator. Saying the shear will be bad 7 or 8 days out is about the same as saying you know who will win the super bowl. You can guess but it would be nothing more than a guess at this point.

At this point. I'd say GB/NE in superbowl. :lol:

#1105 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:11 pm

18Z GFS has it and bringing the timeframe in. Looks to have a closed isobar just east of Belize in the NW Caribbean by hour 129 that the run is out to so far.

#1106 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:13 pm

Hour 138:

#1107 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:22 pm

168 hours, slightly to the east of the 12Z run. Trough looks stronger over the Midwest:

#1108 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:26 pm

18Z GFS; +156hr

#1109 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:The long-range GFS shows an upper anticyclone just about on top of this low in the Gulf so the shear profile looks quite favorable if this were to verify

I usually don't like to go by the windshear forecast, I like to go by h85 vorticity and h20 winds.
At the same hour the gfs shows the UL anticyclone to be centered near the western tip of Cuba while the h85 vorticity is a good 200 miles NW from it under 15-25 knots of SW winds and as the vorticity moves further north the more it shows to encounter stronger UL winds.
That's if even if this UL forecast comes to fruition, we all know they do a horrible job past 72 hrs in forecasting UL winds.

#1110 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:30 pm

A little more to the east on the 18Z run:

#1111 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:34 pm

got to run somebody else can post the graphics

floridasun78 · #1112 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:36 pm

my miami weather man have tv models have nw carribbean with alot moist in that moving nne into eastern gulf by sat and sunday he see rainy weekend here

#1113 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:40 pm

+219hr

stormlover2013 · #1114 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:46 pm

I'm just going to wait till Friday with models runs and wait till something actually develops

#1115 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:50 pm

Note that 850's are warmest at and near the center throughout its journey in the Gulf at +20 C+. Surrounding 850's are cooler than +20 C. I assume that is support to consider this to be pretty close to pure tropical even if sheared/has non-symmetrical convection. Am I looking at this correctly?Opinions?

#1116 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:53 pm

Weaker and slower as it approaches N Gulf coast on this run. Still not inland at +240hr.

#1117 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:55 pm

18z GFS shows the possible system getting decapitated as it tracks north across the GOM.

#1118 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:57 pm

+288hr

#1119 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 6:47 pm

Getting a Tropical Storm Harvey (1999) vibe off that run.

#1120 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 6:57 pm

Had the GFS turned it NE in the EGOM into the west coast of Florida, it would still be under a big anticyclone, it's just in this run it moved north and got hit by shear over the Northern Gulf.

For example, the center of the upper anticyclone is over peninsula Florida (Tampa area) but the low tracks north of that.

This is all very long-range so certainly interesting what I am seeing as far as the upper-air pattern over the Eastern Gulf next week:

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