2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

Gif of 06z GFS run.By the way,this is a group in Puerto Rico that has a twitter account and I am part of it.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/757198604968734722

[JaxGator]

Gif of 06z GFS run.By the way,this is a group in Puerto Rico that has a twitter account and I am part of it.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/757198604968734722

The Atlantic comes alive on that run with the wave strengthening close to the Southeast coast and a Caribbean rider. Plus low pressures and robust waves in the MDR.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_45.png
Interesting that the Euro showed the wave too yesterday close to home.

[JaxGator]

http://i.imgur.com/SGhgiLa.jpg
Blobzilla?

[srainhoutx]

Looking at Meteosat full disk imagery yesterday and today, we can see the vigorous waves moving across Africa.

Metosat Yesterday:



Meteosat Today:

[tarheelprogrammer]

One thing of note is the 06z GFS shows less shear. This could be problematic if it were to stay that way.

Also, the wave the GFS develops and sends to the EC is the same wave I think or one that comes off of Africa around 42 hours from now.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep it is the tropical wave that comes off in about 42hrs. or so. You can track the vorticity in the loop below.

[Hurricaneman]

That wave over Nigeria needs to be watched as it has that looks for development which the GFS does in the Caribbean and even the one over Senegal too as it has it going in to the Bahamas and possibly close to the east coast on the GFS and even the 12zEuro showed that too

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[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS drops EC storm. Thank God.

[ninel conde]

12z GFS drops EC storm. Thank God.

I think we will see this alot. GFS showing storms while the EURO shows pressures quite high in the same area. Need both models to show a well developed storm in roughly the same place and time to get interested.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS drops EC storm. Thank God.

I think we will see this alot. GFS showing storms while the EURO shows pressures quite high in the same area. Need both models to show a well developed storm in roughly the same place and time to get interested.

Yeah GFS looks like it may keep the Atlantic quiet again. LMAO that model flip flops more than any of the other models. At least in my opinion.

[Siker]

Counting about 8/51 EPS members showing development of that first wave, with half ending up in the Gulf and half off the East Coast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Counting about 8/51 EPS members showing development of that first wave, with half ending up in the Gulf and half off the East Coast.

More than the runs before correct?

[gatorcane]

New GFS continues to show more storms for the EPAC. Those looking for development would want to look there not the Atlantic for the time being.

[JaxGator]

New GFS continues to show more storms for the EPAC. Those looking for development would want to look there not the Atlantic for the time being.

What about the other models? Just wondering.

[Yellow Evan]

New GFS continues to show more storms for the EPAC. Those looking for development would want to look there not the Atlantic for the time being.

What about the other models? Just wondering.

ECMWF has a storm around day 9 in the EPAC.

[gatorcane]

New GFS continues to show more storms for the EPAC. Those looking for development would want to look there not the Atlantic for the time being.

What about the other models? Just wondering.

The CMC is finally showing something in the long-range in the far eastern Atlantic. The ECMWF did have something, albeit weak in the long-range east of the Bahamas. What this is telling me is that global models are starting to detect possibly somewhat more favorable (still not great) conditions across the Atlantic out in the long-range which fits nicely with climatology (i.e. what one would expect) for early August. The models do agree the EPAC is where the great conditions should be at for the time being.

[RL3AO]

We're starting to see the changes in the models. GFS is producing a storm on some runs. Seeing a little more activity from the Euro ensembles. It's almost August and the models are starting to indicate this.

[chaser1]

We're starting to see the changes in the models. GFS is producing a storm on some runs. Seeing a little more activity from the Euro ensembles. It's almost August and the models are starting to indicate this.

Exactly, it really is more about watching "the tea leaves" rather than biting on any particular model - for any particular model run. Even having several model run consistancy along with some corroborating alternate model support, doesnt literally mean "a tropical cyclone" will definatly exist at that given forecast time frame (or even at all). I enjoy model watching but in the context of them indicating that certain dynamics are appearing favorable for development to occur. Seems to me that many continue to over-simplify the function and capable analysis of long range modeling, and then simply apply current regional or global conditions to rationalize their own perception whether long range forecasts may or may not ever validate.

[MetroMike]

06z GFS with a hurricane hit in eastern NC. Ensemble members showing OTS , EC, or GOM possibilities. No other model support. Hopefully a phantom storm.

If at 12z both the gfs and euro show a well developed SURFACE low then its time to worry a bit. JB hasnt tweeted anything about it.

Well lately JB seems bored with the weather. He mostly tweets about politics now much to my dismay.

[JaxGator]

Just a model run for the E-Pac but shear is hard to forecast. This may or may not happen at all.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_12.png