Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF is weaker.

More in line with the GFS now in terms of intensity.

Yeah it might be another GFS over ECMWF situation. We shall see.

[Cpv17]

The east coast high is slightly weaker on this run and so is the high dropping south from Canada so far. Window could open up on this run for it to sneak out.

[Steve]

EC slightly SW of 12z @ 48

[Bayousaint]

Hard to see how the UK rain totals would be right here unless we stayed under ridiculous nonstop moisture bands coming in from the east side. It seems like it’s just moving to fast for that amount of rain here. Maybe farther west if it got caught. JMO

People talk about Hurricane Katrina for New Orleans as its worst case scenario, and I lived and worked through Katrina in the city. But a slow mover dumping over 2 feet of water over such a short amount of time would devastate the city's infrastructure. I'm hoping the GFS is right. San Antonio to Houston, nor New Orleans needs this kind of rainmaker. Even with Texas under a drought.

Not to mention, the ground is saturated right now in NOLA and SE Louisiana. Lafourche Parish and surrounding areas have been soaked for the past few weeks.

[Airboy]

Just woke up, still no invest? a bit of a suprise.

[MississippiWx]

Welp, just like that, the Euro caves. Barely tropical storm this run. The window between upper low to the south and upper low to the north is so narrow that any slight adjustment one way or the other can get the system out of a favorable location.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.

[SoupBone]

0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.

Does it still shunt west into SE Texas?

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.

Does it still shunt west into SE Texas?

We'll find out here in the next few minutes.

[Brent]

Looks like its making an exit at 120 definitely moving north

Definitely NE of the earlier runs when it was down near Houston

[Cpv17]

0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.

Does it still shunt west into SE Texas?

We'll find out here in the next few minutes.

My guess is no. High pressure isn’t as strong. Might be a window open for it to escape.

[Steve]

Runs not that far out. It cuts north and zigzags toward Shreveport (south of there) but is more western at that point. Looks like Grand Isle at a slightly different angle. Also, EC has slowed a bit showing landfall sometime Wed afternoon

[mcheer23]

Wow. More like the GFS

[Brent]

144 it moves southwest into Texas close to San Antonio the surface low anyway 850 looks closer to Dallas

So much for the exit

[mcheer23]

Turns west toward Dallas....hmm

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=144

[Cpv17]

144 it moves southwest into Texas close to San Antonio the surface low anyway 850 looks closer to Dallas

So much for the exit

That’s still a setup for a lot of rain

[Clearcloudz]

I'm very interested to see the 00Z ECMWF ensembles and how many members are further west with the track.

[SoupBone]

144 it moves southwest into Texas close to San Antonio the surface low anyway 850 looks closer to Dallas

So much for the exit

That’s still a setup for a lot of rain

True, but I don't think nearly as much as the last run. We'll see.

[Brent]

168 looks like it just stalls over NE TX

Rain totals are not as prolific so far max is around New Orleans at 8 inches