Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1101 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:07 am

Cpv17 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:ECMWF is weaker.


More in line with the GFS now in terms of intensity.


Yeah it might be another GFS over ECMWF situation. We shall see.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1102 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:12 am

The east coast high is slightly weaker on this run and so is the high dropping south from Canada so far. Window could open up on this run for it to sneak out.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1103 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:12 am

EC slightly SW of 12z @ 48
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1104 Postby Bayousaint » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:13 am

SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:Hard to see how the UK rain totals would be right here unless we stayed under ridiculous nonstop moisture bands coming in from the east side. It seems like it’s just moving to fast for that amount of rain here. Maybe farther west if it got caught. JMO


People talk about Hurricane Katrina for New Orleans as its worst case scenario, and I lived and worked through Katrina in the city. But a slow mover dumping over 2 feet of water over such a short amount of time would devastate the city's infrastructure. I'm hoping the GFS is right. San Antonio to Houston, nor New Orleans needs this kind of rainmaker. Even with Texas under a drought.


Not to mention, the ground is saturated right now in NOLA and SE Louisiana. Lafourche Parish and surrounding areas have been soaked for the past few weeks.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1105 Postby Airboy » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:17 am

Just woke up, still no invest? :?: :double: a bit of a suprise.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1106 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:18 am

Welp, just like that, the Euro caves. Barely tropical storm this run. The window between upper low to the south and upper low to the north is so narrow that any slight adjustment one way or the other can get the system out of a favorable location.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1107 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:18 am

0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1108 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:20 am

South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.


Does it still shunt west into SE Texas?
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1109 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:21 am

SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.


Does it still shunt west into SE Texas?


We'll find out here in the next few minutes.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1110 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:22 am

Looks like its making an exit at 120 definitely moving north

Definitely NE of the earlier runs when it was down near Houston
Last edited by Brent on Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1111 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:22 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro much weaker than the past few runs...looks like a TD into southeast Louisiana. Main concern looks to be heavy rainfall with this system.


Does it still shunt west into SE Texas?


We'll find out here in the next few minutes.


My guess is no. High pressure isn’t as strong. Might be a window open for it to escape.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1112 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:25 am

Runs not that far out. It cuts north and zigzags toward Shreveport (south of there) but is more western at that point. Looks like Grand Isle at a slightly different angle. Also, EC has slowed a bit showing landfall sometime Wed afternoon
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1113 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:29 am

Wow. More like the GFS
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1114 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:30 am

144 it moves southwest into Texas close to San Antonio the surface low anyway 850 looks closer to Dallas

So much for the exit
Last edited by Brent on Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1115 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:31 am

Turns west toward Dallas....hmm
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1116 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:31 am

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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1117 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:35 am

Brent wrote:144 it moves southwest into Texas close to San Antonio the surface low anyway 850 looks closer to Dallas

So much for the exit


That’s still a setup for a lot of rain
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1118 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:36 am

I'm very interested to see the 00Z ECMWF ensembles and how many members are further west with the track. :spam:
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1119 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:37 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:144 it moves southwest into Texas close to San Antonio the surface low anyway 850 looks closer to Dallas

So much for the exit


That’s still a setup for a lot of rain


True, but I don't think nearly as much as the last run. We'll see.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas

#1120 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:37 am

168 looks like it just stalls over NE TX

Rain totals are not as prolific so far max is around New Orleans at 8 inches
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