2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

https://i.ibb.co/HnnJJ9V/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh150-192.gif

12Z CMC like the 12Z GFS shows a TD forming next Wednesday evening.

57 thinks it’s going to Louisiana already

[gatorcane]

Fortunately looks like alot of troughiness over the North-Central Atlantic / SE Canada / US East coast. The long-range GFS showed this today which turns the modeled Cape Verde storm to the north into the weakness. Let's see if the models continue to show this large break in the ridge or whether they back off as the time gets closer. The 00Z ECMWF in the long-range also has the weakness, we'll see if the 12Z does as well.

[ROCK]

https://i.ibb.co/HnnJJ9V/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh150-192.gif

12Z CMC like the 12Z GFS shows a TD forming next Wednesday evening.

57 thinks it’s going to Louisiana already

He was halfway joking. The GFS is showing significant ridging over the SE CONUS. All about timing and where the COC sets up. Just like 9L. the entire GOM needs to watch the son of IDA...

[IcyTundra]

Fortunately looks like alot of troughiness over the North-Central Atlantic / SE Canada / US East coast. The long-range GFS showed this today which turns the modeled Cape Verde storm to the north into the weakness. Let's see if the models continue to show this large break in the ridge or whether they back off as the time gets closer. The 00Z ECMWF in the long-range also has the weakness, we'll see if the 12Z does as well.

https://i.postimg.cc/28TNf6xv/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh168-252.gif

I'm thinking this is going to be another year where the primary threat is going to be homegrown systems in the Carribean and Gulf. Pattern for the first part of September looks like it will favor recurves in the MDR.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS recurves the 8/31 wave earlier than pretty much every model run before it, but that is due to 98L wandering around the Azores for a while and continuing to weaken the ridge, instead of quickly being ejected into colder waters and dying.

CMC takes it to the panhandle of Florida again.

Huh? Are you talking about the next MDR wave or the Caribbean one?

[IcyTundra]

GFS recurves the 8/31 wave earlier than pretty much every model run before it, but that is due to 98L wandering around the Azores for a while and continuing to weaken the ridge, instead of quickly being ejected into colder waters and dying.

CMC takes it to the panhandle of Florida again.

Huh? Are you talking about the next MDR wave or the Caribbean one?

Pretty sure he is talking about the Carribean one that could form next week.

[SoupBone]

GFS recurves the 8/31 wave earlier than pretty much every model run before it, but that is due to 98L wandering around the Azores for a while and continuing to weaken the ridge, instead of quickly being ejected into colder waters and dying.

CMC takes it to the panhandle of Florida again.

Huh? Are you talking about the next MDR wave or the Caribbean one?

The Caribbean Queen wave. CMC says Florida panhandle, GFS says west Louisiana.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro track with our first possible Cape Verde hurricane:

[toad strangler]

12Z Euro track with our first possible Cape Verde hurricane:

https://i.postimg.cc/8cDGGXnP/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif

Ya, that strong of a cyclone will sniff out the smallest of weakness to lift up and out but that one is GAPING wide.

[AutoPenalti]

It's a wait and see but I remember seeing this and thinking the same solution, we all knew what happened after.

2017 GFS


2017 Euro

[toad strangler]

It's a wait and see but I remember seeing this and thinking the same solution, we all knew what happened after.

2017 GFS
http://i.imgur.com/KPSadGg.gif

2017 Euro
http://i.imgur.com/0SSQ1DP.gif

Absolutely have to wait it out. Every single system really. Just commenting on the 12z Euro 500mb output that gatorcane posted.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF... Ensemble mean (thin line) recurves bit earlier than 0z.

[SFLcane]

It's a wait and see but I remember seeing this and thinking the same solution, we all knew what happened after.

2017 GFS
http://i.imgur.com/KPSadGg.gif

2017 Euro
http://i.imgur.com/0SSQ1DP.gif

Yea some similarities but I think the overall pattern is way different. The euro ensembles have been quite persistent turning the tc out to sea. You would need a typhoon in the western pacific to change the long wave pattern down stream.

[Kohlecane]

It's a wait and see but I remember seeing this and thinking the same solution, we all knew what happened after.

2017 GFS
http://i.imgur.com/KPSadGg.gif

2017 Euro
http://i.imgur.com/0SSQ1DP.gif

Ahh IRMA

[gatorcane]

12Z GEFS on the potential Cape Verde system:

[SFLcane]

12Z GEFS on the potential Cape Verde system:

https://i.postimg.cc/MGtDYdhf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-eatl-fh144-252.gif

Good agreement on a quick swift recurve. For now

[Category5Kaiju]

It's a wait and see but I remember seeing this and thinking the same solution, we all knew what happened after.

2017 GFS
http://i.imgur.com/KPSadGg.gif

2017 Euro
http://i.imgur.com/0SSQ1DP.gif

Yea some similarities but I think the overall pattern is way different. The euro ensembles have been quite persistent turning the tc out to sea. You would need a typhoon in the western pacific to change the long wave pattern down stream.

Hey, at least the die hard high-ACE hurricane trackers and the MDR fanatics would have the time of their life watching this Cape Verde system rack up a whole ton of ACE points without causing harm to land.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS completely drops the 2nd "Carla Cradle" cyclone.

[toad strangler]

I'm posting this two run snap shot of the GFS at 240 hours as anything after is just stupid. I mean even 240 is stupid but look at the difference from 12z around the basin. Don't assume anything from these global models. Just like with 500mb steering we were talking about earlier in the day.

[SFLcane]

I'm posting this two run snap shot of the GFS at 240 hours as anything after is just stupid. I mean even 240 is stupid but look at the difference from 12z around the basin. Don't assume anything from these global models. Just like with 500mb steering we were talking about earlier in the day.

http://i.ibb.co/mzZ3KPH/Diff.gif

Yea saw that.. but you’d think at that latitude it’s bound to catch a ridge which it does heading NW. parade of trofs up there waiting to turn it