Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

This isnt just FL either...the carolinas are going to deal with a hightened significant flood potential as well...

[gatorcane]

H72 low over FL straits...moving N...Rains continue...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

Wow it's been a long time we would have seen so much rain.

Flooding likely if this verifies

[SFLcane]

Aric what do make of the canadian's past few runs.

Its seems reasonable. track wise its not too different from the euro or GFS. intensity is a little stronger but is also possible..

Thanks for the quick reply dude...Upper conditions north of 25 look rather hostile so i guess the canadian seems possible.

[Vortex]

H78 first stoem moving over SFL...another Low forming SW of Jamaica...This looks similar to the GFS...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[SFLcane]

78hrs NAM 00z right up the spine of the state.

[Vortex]

If this 2nd storm forms and rides over the same region within days this would be unprescedented...

[Vortex]

This would be a huge deal up and down the east coast regarding flooding...

[Vortex]

H84(Thur 2am)..storm riding along the east coast of FL...flooding rains continue from FL north along the East coast of the US..indications a 2nd storm may be forming near Jamaica...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[gatorcane]

If this 2nd storm forms and rides over the same region within days this would be unprescedented...

Well I agree but let's face it: If there is no wind threat people generally lose interest. But when the gfs is showing up to 20 inches of rain for parts of south Florida just from this low alone, there could be some major issues we have not seen in some time here. Should these other lows hit as well, it would be unprecedented indeed. Think about it, 20 inches? That is insane

[ConvergenceZone]

H66 reamins S of Cuba...Flooding rains continue across the keys and S/central Fl...This is setting up to be a serious flood potential IMO...Along with strong gusty winds...There would likely be numerous power outages over a large area..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

Yea, they just said on the weather here that Florida is getting ready for a significant rain event. They did mention that it would not be a wind event, although it may be a bit breezy at time, but that they will get lots and lots of rain. I just hope the flooding isn't too serious.

[Vortex]

Gator, I think there would likely be a broad area of TS winds if the GFS/NAM were on spot with intensity..You take 35-60mph winds with 8-12" of rain and a heightened tornado threat and this would be a september storm to remember for many folks...

[hurricaneCW]

The NAM shows a fire hose of moisture up the east coast.

[Vortex]

and then you do it all over again a few days later according to several models...seems almost too insane to even phathom...

[Vortex]

Very interested in the 00z GFS out in 35...the game will get me there otherwise would probablly turn in with work hours away..

[gatorcane]

and then you do it all over again a few days later according to several models...seems almost too insane to even phathom...

Vortex the second low hangs around south Florida for 3 days straight according to the 18z gfs. Could you imagine?

The third low is the strongest and hits as a hurricane in two weeks to finish it off if you believe the gfs.

[Vortex]

and then you do it all over again a few days later according to several models...seems almost too insane to even phathom...

Vortex the second low hangs around south Florida for 3 days straight. Could you imagine?

the 18Z GFS had that solution..

[hurricaneCW]

This isn't the long range anymore, we're almost in the short range time frame and some of those model projections are downright scary not only for Florida but for the rest of the SE points north. However Florida appears to be in the cross hairs of all of these systems.

[gatorcane]

Surprised nobody comment on the ghost of Matthew. Deep convection is firing near the boc....While convection is waning in the nw Carib.

Wonder if Matthew is still preventing the nw Carib area from getting going.

[tina25]

We are talking about a matter of days here when this is supposed to unfold-- I am hoping it doesn't. A little rain can be good, alot of rain can be devastating.

[boca]

What about the area SW of Jamaica. Looks like convection is firing over there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg