2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

BOC development.

[ROCK]

12z NAVGEM also has something around Yucatán at end run. Similar to Euro but more SGOM

[Steve]

00z 8/3 QPF is again underplaying the 7 day rainfall totals from 30A down to Hernando/Pasco Counties. Highest total is offshore just WSW of Panama City Beach at 5.2" over 7 days. Anyone believes that... I'm willing to bet some locations recieve that amount over the next 24 hours much less 7 days. Best guess of highest rain threat would be from around Cape San Blas over to maybe Citrus County and then ENE of there across NE FL and S GA. I don't think the outline of the moisture surge is bad per se', but it's really not taking flood potential that seriously especially 3-4 days out as all the northern Gulf moisture heads out toward Jacksonville. In past years, QPF has been semi decent for indications of where the most rainfall could occur with tropical influence. But for whatever reason, it's been crappy this year which is what I expect for the next 7 days. Me vs GFS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1501728319

[Steve]

GFS is out to 324 hours. First system hits around 125-150 miles south of Brownsville, and the next one is a macdaddy hurricane heading for the GA coastline. Resolution on Tropical Tidbits shows 969mb with a SE weighted storm. I don't believe that but I don't have a problem with the idea of a threat of a longer tracked system mid month.

Edit - landafall between Savannah and Beaufort right about the GA/SC border at 330 hours Ish. That's what the model says. Again, obviously it's not going to be right but red flags should be up

[Steve]

The Canadian I have access to ends at 240 hours. After some minor league impulses and maybe a low across Arkansas into the Tennessee valley, a strong systsen is moving up toward the Bahamas but just east. Canadian sometimes has a somewhat East bias. So that makes two major models showing something big headed in the general direction of the Southeast. I don't usually go by that far out, but it's notable. If the European is on board, maybe we have a situation weekend after next.

[Hammy]

Euro barely develops the African wave now, showing only a depression (if even closed) but has increased intensity on the BoC system over the last few runs.

[caneman]

00z 8/3 QPF is again underplaying the 7 day rainfall totals from 30A down to Hernando/Pasco Counties. Highest total is offshore just WSW of Panama City Beach at 5.2" over 7 days. Anyone believes that... I'm willing to bet some locations recieve that amount over the next 24 hours much less 7 days. Best guess of highest rain threat would be from around Cape San Blas over to maybe Citrus County and then ENE of there across NE FL and S GA. I don't think the outline of the moisture surge is bad per se', but it's really not taking flood potential that seriously especially 3-4 days out as all the northern Gulf moisture heads out toward Jacksonville. In past years, QPF has been semi decent for indications of where the most rainfall could occur with tropical influence. But for whatever reason, it's been crappy this year which is what I expect for the next 7 days. Me vs GFS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1501728319

No way that is right. We.got pounded with even more rain than Emily yesterday in Pinellas-hillsborough

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Decent looking vort on the EC.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118543&start=1020

NDG This is an old run from Sunday night, last night's it drop it.

Same storm from the monsoon gyre


image from https://twitter.com/JointCyclone

[South Texas Storms]

I'm surprised the NHC still has not mentioned the possible BOC storm. Euro continues to be bullish on it's development.

[weathaguyry]

The Canadian I have access to ends at 240 hours. After some minor league impulses and maybe a low across Arkansas into the Tennessee valley, a strong systsen is moving up toward the Bahamas but just east. Canadian sometimes has a somewhat East bias. So that makes two major models showing something big headed in the general direction of the Southeast. I don't usually go by that far out, but it's notable. If the European is on board, maybe we have a situation weekend after next.

If the ridge is stronger this may go into the GOM, if the ridge is weaker this may affect the OBX all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes, it's still way too early to be thinking about this, but the overall setup is concerning, if anything were to approach the US Coastline

[Steve]

00z 8/3 QPF is again underplaying the 7 day rainfall totals from 30A down to Hernando/Pasco Counties. Highest total is offshore just WSW of Panama City Beach at 5.2" over 7 days. Anyone believes that... I'm willing to bet some locations recieve that amount over the next 24 hours much less 7 days. Best guess of highest rain threat would be from around Cape San Blas over to maybe Citrus County and then ENE of there across NE FL and S GA. I don't think the outline of the moisture surge is bad per se', but it's really not taking flood potential that seriously especially 3-4 days out as all the northern Gulf moisture heads out toward Jacksonville. In past years, QPF has been semi decent for indications of where the most rainfall could occur with tropical influence. But for whatever reason, it's been crappy this year which is what I expect for the next 7 days. Me vs GFS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1501728319

No way that is right. We.got pounded with even more rain than Emily yesterday in Pinellas-hillsborough

It's disappointing. On the one hand, I don't expect a global model to pinpoint exact rainfall totals. That's not the point. But it's really stuck out to me this year how much it has underestimated things. Even the 12z estimates are lower, like 4.5" just south of Mobile Bay. There are flood advisories SW of here down in the Bayou with estimates today of 5+ by the NWS in those locations which I don't think will see the most rain over the next 7 days anyway. I think we'll get 2" or so just today where we're shown to be 1.75" for the entire 7 days. I think the heaviest rainfall threat though remains over toward the central Panhandle and Big Bend and then down toward the Tampa metro if some of the feeder moisture sinks your way.

[Steve]

06z GFS doesn't drop development in the BoC, but it's not much. Maybe a TS hitting around Tuxpan or Tecolutla 12z August 12.

The real system hits a little farther south in Georgia than last night's run say around Ossabaw Island at 336 hours (14 days/2 weeks) as a strong hurricane. It moves up toward the Atlanta metro then moves north into Kentucky and southern Ohio. I'm guessing that it will continue to adjust the track south for a while for now as long as it continues to depict it.

[srainhoutx]

I'm surprised the NHC still has not mentioned the possible BOC storm. Euro continues to be bullish on it's development.

Watch the Twave in the Eastern Caribbean. In 72 hours it will be passing near and South of Jamaica. Environmental Conditions look to improve early next week as the wave approaches the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. There are also some indication that a bit of a monsoonal gyre develops over Southern Mexico, Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Bay of Campeche. TC Genesis Probabilities are about 50% in the 120-240 hour timeframe over the SW Gulf.

[AJC3]

We've made something of a command decision to shift discussion of the BOC system to the thread about the eastern Caribbean Tropical Wave...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118895

...since at least some of the vorticity that goes into the genesis of that system appears to be traceable from this wave.

[TheAustinMan]

For those itching to assign some sort of a name or number to tropical waves depicted on model guidance, pouch tracking is for you! Pouch tracking is automated this year and is available at http://96.127.43.56/global.php.

I believe various moisture pouches are assigned a designation like A10-2... I believe in that case A10 would be the designation while the -2 I would assume is some indication of the pouch's organization.

[OuterBanker]

The x appears in today's two.

[Steve]

Turned out Storm 2k was better than the GFS input to the QPF forecasts. It's flooding here again and we didn't get anywhere near what points east of here over to the Big Bend where some places got double the offshore max shown a few days ago for 7 days. I'll continue ranting on that output as warranted.

[jason1912]

A bit out in fantasy range but..

[AubreyStorm]

A bit out in fantasy range but..

When?

[TheStormExpert]

A bit out in fantasy range but..

When?

384hrs. (Day 16), will likely be gone in the next run.