ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

The CFS shows a equatorial rossby wave retrograding westerly anomalies into the CPAC:


This could result in the Nino regions remaining warmer a little longer than what the models are suggesting.

[cycloneye]

The subsurface continues to cool.

[Kingarabian]

Also sustained trades over the dateline continue.

[gigabite]

The source for these SST rasters is the Climate Prediction Center. I've tried to equate the map legend symbology. Last year the change is sea surface presented an 9 degree spread. This year this month it is a 34 degree spread. The character of the change is unique to the last couple of months. The difference in the warming in the northern hemisphere is 6 times what it was last year and the difference in the cooling in the southern hemisphere is 2 times what it was last year. The symmetry along the equator is stunning. I'm not sure shifting wind is going to explain it.

[NotSparta]

[url]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/640x480q90/922/10Hdzy.jpg [/url]
The source for these SST rasters is the Climate Prediction Center. I've tried to equate the map legend symbology. Last year the change is sea surface presented an 9 degree spread. This year this month it is a 34 degree spread. The character of the change is unique to the last couple of months. The difference in the warming in the northern hemisphere is 6 times what it was last year and the difference in the cooling in the southern hemisphere is 2 times what it was last year. The symmetry along the equator is stunning. I'm not sure shifting wind is going to explain it.

Looks like something went wrong with your dataset. Anomaly period is probably too warm in the south hemisphere producing that look

[gigabite]

[url]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/640x480q90/922/10Hdzy.jpg [/url]
The source for these SST rasters is the Climate Prediction Center. I've tried to equate the map legend symbology. Last year the change is sea surface presented an 9 degree spread. This year this month it is a 34 degree spread. The character of the change is unique to the last couple of months. The difference in the warming in the northern hemisphere is 6 times what it was last year and the difference in the cooling in the southern hemisphere is 2 times what it was last year. The symmetry along the equator is stunning. I'm not sure shifting wind is going to explain it.

Looks like something went wrong with your dataset. Anomaly period is probably too warm in the south hemisphere producing that look

Okay I'll look....10 minutes later... Yes I'm using the actual SST not the anomaly. This is a second derivative product. I subtract last year from this year. I have classified it several ways it still looks like this. I'm thinking it is the magnitude of change that that is giving this look. The change of the previous year over year was a fraction of this change.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if El Niño comes as a huge surprise by ASO and all the forecasts by the experts bust bigtime. I am dreaming right? At the moment all the four areas are going up and three of them are above +0.5C or steady around that.










The SOI is down and that is good to have El Niño.




The only thing that is notable is the subsurface that is cool but so far it has not translated to the surface.

So what will be the trigger(s) to reverse all the above apart from the subsurface?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Let's see if El Niño comes as a huge surprise by ASO and all the forecasts by the experts bust bigtime. I am dreaming right? At the moment all the four areas are going up and three of them are above +0.5C or steady around that.

https://i.imgur.com/IByL5kz.png

https://i.imgur.com/65p2cpY.png

https://i.imgur.com/U5JMgVX.png

https://i.imgur.com/aCm5B2u.png


The SOI is down and that is good to have El Niño.


https://i.imgur.com/brwZ6pc.png

The only thing that is notable is the subsurface that is cool but so far it has not translated to the surface.

So what will be the trigger(s) to reverse all the above apart from the subsurface?

What you're seeing right now is a result of the warm pool being forced to the surface as the cold pool grows below.


With the MJO being forecast to remain distant from the WPAC, this likely means we won't see any substantial WWBs in the near future to keep the Niño regions this warm and/or warm them up some more, not to mention another prolonged trade burst is currently occuring at the Date Line which will only help to reinforce the cold pool.

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the subsurface as of April 13 shows plenty of cool waters that has pockets of -2C. The question is when it will reach the surface.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw , glad to see you in S2K again after a long absence. Waiting for your anaylsis on the state of ENSO and it's future in the next few months.

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if El Niño comes as a huge surprise by ASO and all the forecasts by the experts bust bigtime. I am dreaming right? At the moment all the four areas are going up and three of them are above +0.5C or steady around that.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/IByL5kz.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/65p2cpY.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/U5JMgVX.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aCm5B2u.png[url]


The SOI is down and that is good to have El Niño.


https://i.imgur.com/brwZ6pc.png

The only thing that is notable is the subsurface that is cool but so far it has not translated to the surface.

So what will be the trigger(s) to reverse all the above apart from the subsurface?

That's just a combo of the last downwelling Kelvin wave from February surfacing, along with weakened trades over most of the EPAC, and satellite derived SST's being noisy. It can take 2-3 months for a downwelling Kelvin to move from the WPAC->EPAC and fully breach the surface. The present upwelling Kelvin wave will start to breach by the end of May and will last well into June. Also a new upwelling Kelvin wave will likely be triggered as a result of this present phase of above average trades near the dateline. Euro and the GFS show relaxed trades over the dateline by April 26 though. So we're sorta seeing a chain reaction begin now which will act as foundation for cool neutral come summer time.

[Kingarabian]

Part of the reason why I think La Nina will probably need to wait till the fall:



^ Hovmoller is from Mike Ventrice

Trades have consistently been close normal. 2016 and 2017 our most recent La Nina years had much more robust trade bursts. I think this will start to occur in June and July.

[cycloneye]

From the NHC discussion about the trades by next week.

High pressure will then
build N of the forecast area, strengthening tradewinds W of 130W.

[Kingarabian]

From the NHC discussion about the trades by next week.

High pressure will then
build N of the forecast area, strengthening tradewinds W of 130W.

I think they're talking about the high west or south west of Baja. I don't think that'll influence trades near the equator. But it'll probably help push the EPO positive and support the -PDO signature by cooling waters there.

[Kingarabian]

BOM has Nino 3.4 up to +0.58C. Will likely mean CPC will have +0.5C again this week. And so for the ONI, FMA is probably on its way to +0.5C which would mean 5 tri-monthlies in a row of +0.5C. So that would indicate 2019-2020 can qualify as an El Nino.

[WeatherEmperor]

BOM has Nino 3.4 up to +0.58C. Will likely mean CPC will have +0.5C again this week. And so for the ONI, FMA is probably on its way to +0.5C which would mean 5 tri-monthlies in a row of +0.5C. So that would indicate 2019-2020 can qualify as an El Nino.

CPC has it even warmer at +0.7C. I know the models keep indicating it will drop to cool-neautral by Summer/Fall but how confident are we in this if temps keep rising like this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

This adds to WeatherEmperor question that he posted above.

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1252242486979899392

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Despite the +0.7C reading in the CPC update,the ocean is cooling at the subsurface.

[Chris90]

I think warm SST anomalies will persist for a few more weeks in all likelihood due to the fact that the top of the subsurface still has widespread warm anomalies down to roughly 50-75m across much of the ENSO regions, so slight additional warming in the shorter term can't be ruled out in my opinion. To sustain or increase these warm anomalies all the way through to ASO and the peak of hurricane season though we're going to need to see some westerly wind events that trigger a downwelling Kelvin Wave. I'm not sure that is in the cards. I'm guessing 3.4 will be somewhere around -0.3 to -0.5 for ASO, I'm in the cool neutral camp, for now anyways.