Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[tolakram]

Based on the last visible loop it appears to me that 90E is staying offshore, moving north, and increasing in strength.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Last 5 frames.

I don't see anything exciting happening in the Caribbean except a swirl moving onshore.

[KWT]

That swirl to be fair though has got some decent convection that is starting to wrap around that low pressure just like 90E did yesterday so I can see why people are saying this could become worthy of at least an invest though its true that it is now moving onland.

As for 90E, its offshore but just according to the co-ordinates from the latest estimate but that isn't for this topic.

[cpdaman]

i hate how the ramsdis loop moves..... making the direction of the low more difficult to read.

[MiamiensisWx]

Bottom line: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personally, I believe the northern end of the tropical wave axis that has finally reached the southern Caribbean basin may serve as a focal point for a plausible low level circulation. Low level convergence will be greatest in that vicinity. There is an increasing amount of confluence over the extreme EPAC and S Caribbean as well. Additionally, the broad and diffuse low level circulation of 90E appears to be slowly drifting northeast; although I believe it will attain classification, its time over water is limited prior to "landfall" on western Central America. Since there are two defined surface lows with developing low level circulations in the EPAC and S Caribbean east of Central America, it is likely that the Fujiwhara interactions will place the S Caribbean system further north, which would aid cyclogenesis ENE of Honduras after 90E/developing EPAC TD moves inland. Additionally, data reveals that the upper ridge has built in over the S Caribbean, placing the Caribbean system in a conducive upper air environment with good divergence. Even if 90E likely develops prior to moving inland, everything seems to favor secondary cyclogenesis in the heart of the Caribbean Sea over the next 24 to 48 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Here's our wave axis and low level convergence!

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

...and don't forget the next wave axis in the eastern Caribbean that will also affect the western Caribbean over the next several days. My original argument for no EPAC development will likely bust, but the Caribbean area continues to warrant attention.

[Ptarmigan]

Bears watching for sure. Speaking of it, TS Allison in 2001 formed in early June. The tropical wave that became Allison left Africa on May 21st and even went over the East Pacific and moved into Mexico than the Gulf of Mexico. Had the wave stayed over the East Pacific, it could of developed. I remember before Allison forming, it was over unfavorable conditions was not even forecasted to develop. It was suppose to just be a upper level low and give us rain. Instead it became a strong tropical storm. Had Allison stayed over the water longer, it could of been a hurricane. Anyways, the end result was a 40 inches of rain and 22 people dead.

[MiamiensisWx]

For what it's worth, the NHC is mentioning the Caribbean system as a distinct entity for the first time. Many discussions with similar wording to the bolded portion have resulted in INVEST classifications and mentioning in the TWO within 24 to 36 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL EPAC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W ARE PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 72W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/281740.shtml?

They're essentially acknowledging an area of interest, and that usually receives attention in the upcoming TWO. An INVEST very late tonight or tomorrow is quite possible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Bears watching for sure. Speaking of it, TS Allison in 2001 formed in early June. The tropical wave that became Allison left Africa on May 21st and even went over the East Pacific and moved into Mexico than the Gulf of Mexico. Had the wave stayed over the East Pacific, it could of developed. I remember before Allison forming, it was over unfavorable conditions was not even forecasted to develop. It was suppose to just be a upper level low and give us rain. Instead it became a strong tropical storm. Had Allison stayed over the water longer, it could of been a hurricane. Anyways, the end result was a 40 inches of rain and 22 people dead.

[Ptarmigan]

[Evil Jeremy]

Shouldn't we start seeing the new GFS in about 15 minutes?

[Vortex]

yes sir

[MiamiensisWx]

yes sir

Were you alluding to my previous two posts and offering a nod of approval/agreement?

[cycloneye]

TAFB 18z synopsis. Very interesting.

[Vortex]

yes sir

Were you alluding to my previous two posts and offering a nod of approval/agreement?

actually referencing the gfs ? jeremy asked about. However, another excellent write up and tend to agree with most of your points. You back it with sound reasoning.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS initializes well.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

[KWT]

Very interesting cycloneye, those two low pressure systems are real close to each other, the EPAC system is better organised but the SWC system is getting better organised. Wouldn't be that surprising if one of the centers absorbs the other one but what one will try and become the dominant I wonder?

[wxman57]

The weak mid-level swirl I observed east of Nicaragua yesterday at this time has clearly moved inland into Nicaragua today. Nothing imminent as far as development in the SW Caribbean. Still just an area to watch. Something may develop there or originate from there eventually, but it could be a week or more from now. But I do feel better now that the mid level vortex is inland.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I don't think one can draw "comfort" from it; the surface low is still situated slightly east of Nicaragua, and visible satellite data indicates a possible broad low level circulation developing east of Central America. It's not there at this time, but there are signs of initial formative stages. Low level convergence and confluence is highest in the vicinity, and cyclogenesis still very plausible after the broad/ill defined low level circulation in the EPAC moves inland shortly. INVEST for the Caribbean system is very possible within 24 to 36 hours, followed by slow development after that time frame.

[Evil Jeremy]

Everyone has a diffrent opinion on if this will form, where it will, when it will, how strong it will be, where it will go, and tons of other stuff.

What are the chances of something actually forming in general over the next few days, at least as an invest (not counting 90E)?

[cpdaman]

nah two more weeks

rain would be very helpful to florida and then up the east coast (carolina's /georgia) but this will be a sloow event, time to take my patience pills

[MiamiensisWx]

Everyone has a diffrent opinion on if this will form, where it will, when it will, how strong it will be, where it will go, and tons of other stuff.

What are the chances of something actually forming in general over the next few days, at least as an invest (not counting 90E)?

INVESTs do not "form". They are declared.

Secondly, I highly doubt a surface trough would linger in the vicinity for more than one week. Personally, I place high probabilities of an eventual INVEST classification for the Caribbean system within 24 to 36 hours, but any development will likely occur during subsequent days. Development will be very slow, as mentioned in previous posts and analyses.