Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Dean4Storms]

I hope the season is a bust as far as landfalling hurricanes go but it is fine with me if they form and stay out at sea. Even if we don't on the Atlantic side see any hurricanes we have plenty to view so far over in the Pacific.

But I am of the opinion that the season gets cranking by mid August based mostly on climatology and evidence in models of more favorable conditions as we move into August.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

I have mentioned my numbers before but will say it again 10/3/1 total numbers the whole season.

6/2/1 the rest of the way....? ( a gamblin man ) ( so am I ! ) I'll go with 6/4/2 in Sept by itself. My forecast of 2/1/0 for the rest of this month may bust though...? we shall see. I still see some breeding grounds shaping up in the Caribbean, Gulf, east coast, and east Atlantic http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Hammy]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

I have mentioned my numbers before but will say it again 10/3/1 total numbers the whole season.

6/3/1 the rest of the way....? ( a gamblin man ) ( so am I ! ) I'll go with 6/4/2 in Sept by itself. My forecast of 2/1/0 for the rest of this month may bust though...? we shall see. I still see some breeding grounds shaping up in the Caribbean, Gulf, east coast, and east Atlantic http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

This could change if we get another SAL outbreak, but I notice that big dry area in the middle of the Atlantic seems to be shrinking gradually.

[Ntxw]

1988, 1998, 1999, and 2010 are all years where by July La Nina was cranking into moderate to become strong or near strong. You can flip conditions very quickly with such powerful response in the atmosphere to the Ninas. I suspect this is how those years went busy in a hurry after August. This neutral-Nina is not at that echelon. I would be hesitant to say that kind of flip unless I saw the Nina really bloom (and it really needs to tank from where it is). Otherwise I would be cautious with a near normal approach.

[wxman57]

Looks perfectly normal across the tropics for mid-late July, to me. SAL is a good bit less than the past 2 seasons. Wind shear across the Caribbean is a lot less than 2014 or 2015. Atlantic will turn "on" after the East Pac settles down for a bit in early August.

[WeatherEmperor]

What does the steering pattern forecast across the Us East Coast look like for Aug/Sept? More ridging or trofing?

[blp]

I agree things are much better this year but the one factor that is very present this year as it has been since 2011 is the lack of Vertical Instability in the MDR. It has dogged the Atlantic and is very negative again this year. Some parts of basin are doing OK with VI but not having the MDR available to produce quality systems has had a major impact. There is a reason it is regarded as the primary breeding ground and it has shown how important it is over these years. Any improvement here will have a major factor in how this season will turn out.

[ninel conde]

What does the steering pattern forecast across the Us East Coast look like for Aug/Sept? More ridging or trofing?

I would bet on the multi-year trof. Click on this.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html

One of the strongest summer trofs i have seen. If this persists thru aug/sept which i think it will then east coast and gom are safe. That heat dome will suppress gom activity as its done for several years and nothing will form in the west atlantic till that trof is gone.

[RL3AO]

A multi-year trough? WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN? It's July. The jet stream is in Canada. The annual summer ridge has set up across the southern US. Where else can the troughs possibly be except propagating through Canada?

[Florida1118]

What does the steering pattern forecast across the Us East Coast look like for Aug/Sept? More ridging or trofing?

I would bet on the multi-year trof. Click on this.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html

One of the strongest summer trofs i have seen. If this persists thru aug/sept which i think it will then east coast and gom are safe. That heat dome will suppress gom activity as its done for several years and nothing will form in the west atlantic till that trof is gone.

Yeah, keep on harping on your multi-year trough; that'll make it all come true. The magic multi-year trough will save us all, and nothing will ever form again!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Stop using logic, guys. That trough is so strong it doesn't even show up on 500mb anomaly maps. The trough is so strong it has prompted widespread heat advisories and excessive heat warnings across the Central and East US. It's unbelievable how strong this feature is. /s

[Hammy]

This time in eventually landfall-heavy 1999.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This time in eventually landfall-heavy 1999.

No pacific activity and not as much dry air from what I can tell.

[Hammy]

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_ir/9907/99072200.gif
This time in eventually landfall-heavy 1999.

No pacific activity and not as much dry air from what I can tell.

Pacific activity is higher this year due to lingering Nino temperatures. Air is drier than 1999, but 2004 was even drier than this year especially over the eastern half of the Atlantic.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/MET-7/WV/2004-07-22-00
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/MSG-3/WV/2016-07-14-06

Still plenty of time for things to change, though I remain confident that this will not be until after the middle of August.

[RL3AO]

Look at all that dry air in 2005. I bet that season was really slow.

[ninel conde]

There are other things to look at however. 2016 is nothing compared to 2005 which had cat3 dennis hit florida and a cat 5 emily in the carib by this time. this year? Trust me, if this season already had a US landfalling cat3 and a carib cat 5 its safe to say the pattern in 2005 was totally different and no one would be saying it was going to be a slow season. Its possible it could still be a 1998. Time will tell.

Meant to edit my post and got a double post.

[euro6208]

What happen to the Atlantic? Seems like all negative conditions you can think of has taken over.

Oh how I miss tracking those beautiful hurricanes and seeing how much traffic the weather forums get. Now I see mostly depressed and complaining people not just on storm2k.

[RL3AO]

IT'S JULY 22ND

[tolakram]

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic



So over 158 years we've had 13 storms form in the deep tropics east of the islands. I count about 50 storms total, so there's aprox a 32% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during July 21st to the 31st.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic



So over 158 years we've had 13 storms form in the deep tropics east of the islands. I count about 50 storms total, so there's aprox a 32% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during July 21st to the 31st.

What is the chance for all of July?