2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Well tonights model runs are very interesting so far lol , CMC has a TS in the gulf moving toward central- northern mexico, GFS buries it into BOC, but has another low riding wave developing in the caribbean, not seeing any troughs on the models for october, lots of ridging, not a typical upper air pattern for october

Yea I was looking at that as well. It's really looking like this year is the year that the USA mainland escapes any tropical disasters.

This is the kind of comment that is destined to age like milk lol

I'm going out on a limb here, there have been 2 October hurricanes IMBY (1949, Cat 1 sheared Jerry 1989) but Upper Texas Coast season is over. I think Kate was 1985, I could be wrong, but that hit the Panhandle in November, Tallahassee area still had electric issues at Thanksgiving. It is looking better for the US but Florida season is not over. Nor is ECUSA if Sandy is any guide. The later it gets, the less the chances, of course.

[hurricane2025]

Yea I was looking at that as well. It's really looking like this year is the year that the USA mainland escapes any tropical disasters.

This is the kind of comment that is destined to age like milk lol

I'm going out on a limb here, there have been 2 October hurricanes IMBY (1949, Cat 1 sheared Jerry 1989) but Upper Texas Coast season is over. I think Kate was 1985, I could be wrong, but that hit the Panhandle in November, Tallahassee area still had electric issues at Thanksgiving. It is looking better for the US but Florida season is not over. Nor is ECUSA if Sandy is any guide. The later it gets, the less the chances, of course.

6 storms have hit upper Texas

[TomballEd]

This is the kind of comment that is destined to age like milk lol

I'm going out on a limb here, there have been 2 October hurricanes IMBY (1949, Cat 1 sheared Jerry 1989) but Upper Texas Coast season is over. I think Kate was 1985, I could be wrong, but that hit the Panhandle in November, Tallahassee area still had electric issues at Thanksgiving. It is looking better for the US but Florida season is not over. Nor is ECUSA if Sandy is any guide. The later it gets, the less the chances, of course.

6 storms have hit upper Texas

I said hurricanes. I remember Allison and Imelda, of course. Some TS's do have impacts away from the coast. My attention now is on recurving East Pac storms. Remnants of Hurricane Rosa set the San Jacinto River on fire.

[SFLcane]

That is as big as a CAG signal as you see for Oct right around the time when things turn more favorable. We shall see what comes from it.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1973097433589563882

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has an MDR storm developing in about a week. Impacts the islands as a hurricane and then becomes a major north of the islands. 18z had it too but weaker and further east. Euro doesn't have much yet but could be something to keep an eye on. Interesting how we've seen quite a bit of October MDR activity in recent years.

[wwizard]

I'm going out on a limb here, there have been 2 October hurricanes IMBY (1949, Cat 1 sheared Jerry 1989) but Upper Texas Coast season is over. I think Kate was 1985, I could be wrong, but that hit the Panhandle in November, Tallahassee area still had electric issues at Thanksgiving. It is looking better for the US but Florida season is not over. Nor is ECUSA if Sandy is any guide. The later it gets, the less the chances, of course.

6 storms have hit upper Texas

I said hurricanes. I remember Allison and Imelda, of course. Some TS's do have impacts away from the coast. My attention now is on recurving East Pac storms. Remnants of Hurricane Rosa set the San Jacinto River on fire.

Only 4 storms have made official landfall on Texas soil past Sep. 30, period. Since official records started in 1851, that is.

1867 Galveston hurricane (Oct. 2)
1912 Hurricane 6 (Padre Island) (Oct. 16)
1949 Freeport hurricane (Oct. 4)
1989 Hurricane Jerry (Oct. 15)

At least a couple more pre-1851 including 2 possible November landfalls.

1848 SE Texas (Oct. 17)
1839 Galveston hurricane (Nov. 5)
And then there’s;
1527 Galveston/Matagorda ?? (Nov.)

So it can happen, but with 6 known Texas landfalls past Sep. 30 in the last 185 years, it would be a very, very rare occurrence.

It should also be noted that’s there’s been a few landfalls close to Texas, like just south of the Rio Grande or in extreme SW Louisiana, that still have big impacts, so Oct. 1 doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the season for Texas, but it would be almost as likely as a hurricane forming in December. And at quick glance there’s “officially” just been 7 of those since 1851.

[kevin]

06z long-range GFS doing its usual thing. Forms around +192 hr in the MDR and hits Florida from the east. Moves east to west and intensifies in the Gulf at the end of the run.

[Travorum]

06z GFS is hitting the bottle early, the MDR storm it's had for several runs intensifies into a hurricane in the ECAR, passes up north over the Bahamas and into SEFL as a major hurricane, then intensifies in the gulf heading west at the end of the run:

[WeatherBoy2000]

06z GFS is hitting the bottle early, the MDR storm it's had for several runs intensifies into a hurricane in the ECAR, passes up north over the Bahamas and into SEFL as a major hurricane, then intensifies in the gulf heading west at the end of the run:

https://i.imgur.com/eEz5vHA.gif

Although this is clearly just the gfs being the gfs, it comes from a legit signal. The eps has a sizeable amount of members developing something in the mdr and even the euro has vorticity. The CPC has also highlighted the mdr for the second week of October as well. It looks like we'll have another season where mdr ts to even hurricane opportunites extend well into October.

[otowntiger]

06z GFS is hitting the bottle early, the MDR storm it's had for several runs intensifies into a hurricane in the ECAR, passes up north over the Bahamas and into SEFL as a major hurricane, then intensifies in the gulf heading west at the end of the run:

https://i.imgur.com/eEz5vHA.gif

will be interesting to see if the gfs continues to show that scenario or something remotely similar in future runs. If I were a betting man I’d put my money on the next run showing nothing or something wildly different. Since it’s so far out I guess that is actually the norm, but if it does have a little consistency then it would ‘bear watching’ as they say.

[tolakram]

euro AI has it at the end of the run. I have yet to see the AI version more accurate this far out but here it is.

[SFLcane]

06z long-range GFS doing its usual thing. Forms around +192 hr in the MDR and hits Florida from the east. Moves east to west and intensifies in the Gulf at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/LMPqc6e.png

This is a highly unlikely scenario lol in mid Oct I’d watch for a piece of that wave maybe gets into the western Caribbean rather then a hurricane hitting SFL from the east in mid Oct lol. GEFS recurves near the easternmost islands maybe Bermuda again? All speculation at this point but living in SFL going on 48 years this month a hurricane hitting Florida from the east is not very likely at all.

[AutoPenalti]

06z long-range GFS doing its usual thing. Forms around +192 hr in the MDR and hits Florida from the east. Moves east to west and intensifies in the Gulf at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/LMPqc6e.png

This is a highly unlikely scenario lol in mid Oct I’d watch for a piece of that wave maybe gets into the western Caribbean rather then a hurricane hitting SFL from the east in mid Oct lol. GEFS recurves near the easternmost islands maybe Bermuda again? All speculation at this point but living in SFL going on 48 years this month a hurricane hitting Florida from the east is not very likely at all.

Forecast seems to be for anomalous upper level ridging across the NE.

[SFLcane]

06z long-range GFS doing its usual thing. Forms around +192 hr in the MDR and hits Florida from the east. Moves east to west and intensifies in the Gulf at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/LMPqc6e.png

This is a highly unlikely scenario lol in mid Oct I’d watch for a piece of that wave maybe gets into the western Caribbean rather then a hurricane hitting SFL from the east in mid Oct lol. GEFS recurves near the easternmost islands maybe Bermuda again? All speculation at this point but living in SFL going on 48 years this month a hurricane hitting Florida from the east is not very likely at all.

Forecast seems to be for anomalous upper level ridging across the NE.

na...

[WeatherBoy2000]

This is a highly unlikely scenario lol in mid Oct I’d watch for a piece of that wave maybe gets into the western Caribbean rather then a hurricane hitting SFL from the east in mid Oct lol. GEFS recurves near the easternmost islands maybe Bermuda again? All speculation at this point but living in SFL going on 48 years this month a hurricane hitting Florida from the east is not very likely at all.

Forecast seems to be for anomalous upper level ridging across the NE.

na...

https://i.imgur.com/KFZvL56.png

One thing to note is that ensemble suite forms it way out in the Eastern mdr while the gfs is much further west (Antilles/Ecar). A gfs solution would make an east coast landfall relatively more likely.

[AutoPenalti]

This is a highly unlikely scenario lol in mid Oct I’d watch for a piece of that wave maybe gets into the western Caribbean rather then a hurricane hitting SFL from the east in mid Oct lol. GEFS recurves near the easternmost islands maybe Bermuda again? All speculation at this point but living in SFL going on 48 years this month a hurricane hitting Florida from the east is not very likely at all.

Forecast seems to be for anomalous upper level ridging across the NE.

na...

https://i.imgur.com/KFZvL56.png

The AI suite wants to develop this early. There’s a break in the Bermuda ridge (thanks to the two lovebirds in the subtropics) that would allow for that to happen, GFS on the other hand develops this later which has the ridge build in late in the run.

[SFLcane]

Forecast seems to be for anomalous upper level ridging across the NE.

na...

https://i.imgur.com/KFZvL56.png

The AI suite wants to develop this early. There’s a break in the Bermuda ridge that would allow for that to happen, GFS on the other hand develops this later which has the ridge build in late in the run.

GFS says its Oct gyre time!

[TomballEd]

Not sure the point of the post. If long range ensembles completely flip from one run to another they are both suspect until consistency appears. More gut and recent history than anything else, a mid-month Eastern Gulf storm sounds like the more likely solution.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1973704701620400354

[WeatherBoy2000]

There might be another spin up in the same area as the one currently marked by NHC:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1973840900796129637