TD 10...Back Again

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#1161 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:00 pm

superfly wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Thanks XYNo. Yes, this is what I'm thinking too but I just can't figure out which option this will likely take. I'm very concerned though if it does #2 it won't be pretty.


It's kind of a toss-up right now.

I'd give odds of

35% - it stays a wave - never organizes again.

25% - it develops in the Bahamas and impacts SFL as a TS or TD

25% - it crosses FL as a wave and develops in the Gulf

10% - it doesn't cross FL


I think what jschlitz was asking was if it crossed into the gulf, where would it go?


Yeah, that's part 2 of my question. If it does make it into the GOM, then what? Prob. too far out at this point but I don't like the way the pattern looks next week.

Maybe I should see if it survives the Atlantic first :wink: :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

#1162 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:03 pm

Looking better, a least a little spin, their was none this morning!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#1163 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:04 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Typhoon_Willie wrote:Looks like some convection is starting to refire on the west side of the system. Lets see if this holds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


yeah its very slowly getting better organized. It could really be something at this time tomorrow.

<RICKY>


All the floater images look more promising than they did 4-5 hours ago. Remember people all I said is promising...Lets wait and see what happens as the night goes on.


Jim
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1164 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:29 pm

I'm thinking that a New LLC is starting to develop around 22.5/67.5. It is moving westward. Right now most of the convection is off to the East. But it has popcorn convection.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#1165 Postby artist » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:32 pm

here is a pick of the skies over Puerto Rico a little earlier today -

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/pr.shtml




cycloneye - is that how it looks where you are as well? Which coast are you near? n-s-e-w?
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#1166 Postby gkrangers » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:34 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm thinking that a New LLC is starting to develop around 22.5/67.5. It is moving westward. Right now most of the convection is off to the East. But it has popcorn convection.
It just looks like outflow boundaries moving off to the SW. Doesn't have any active convection over that spot at this moment.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1167 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:34 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm thinking that a New LLC is starting to develop around 22.5/67.5. It is moving westward. Right now most of the convection is off to the East. But it has popcorn convection.


yup that looks about right.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1168 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:38 pm

Also another fact is tropical storm Jerry formed on 22th of August. Then Hit Eastern Florida?

So we got 3 more days....


Also you can clearly see a spin around that area.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#1169 Postby gkrangers » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:40 pm

I was in disney world when jerry hit..10 years ago? It rained a lot.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1170 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:42 pm

I remember that Jerry.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1171 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:43 pm

well, if this does develop then fl would have to worry first then it may track all the way through the gulf
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1172 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:46 pm

Its kinda strange. The local mets here in South Florida are keeping an eye out on it but are not overly concerned with it.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#1173 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:47 pm

deltadog03 wrote:well, if this does develop then fl would have to worry first then it may track all the way through the gulf
Our local discussion says our flow will change west to east next week. If that happens I doubt it will go that far west. If it develops at all.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1174 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:48 pm

true, but that is the GFS talking...im still not buying that a front will make it all the way to FL...sorry guys
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1175 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:51 pm

deltadog03 wrote:true, but that is the GFS talking...im still not buying that a front will make it all the way to FL...sorry guys


Im sure folks in Punta Gorda, FL will not agree with that statement :D

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1176 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:59 pm

Shear seems to be favable around 5 to 10 knots over the system. With a developing LLC around 21.5/67.5(Right about where the nhc puts it) SAL is also very low over the system.

Overall I expect a slow coming together of the system over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then a possible faster one.

This is just a option....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1177 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Shear seems to be favable around 5 to 10 knots over the system. With a developing LLC around 21.5/67.5(Right about where the nhc puts it) SAL is also very low over the system.

Overall I expect a slow coming together of the system over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then a possible faster one.

This is just a option....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


Isnt the center plots you have further West from where the big convection currently is or am I wrong?

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1178 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:07 pm

Yes its a broad LLC to the west of the convection. But the convection appears to be trying to move closer to it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#1179 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:08 pm

Sorry, I do not see anything resembling an LLCC in any place you mention Matt or anyone else for that matter. Maybe I am blind in my old age, but JMHO. there is a definite mid-levle spin near 21,64 like talked about earlier, but that is all I see.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1180 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:09 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Yes its a broad LLC to the west of the convection. But the convection appears to be trying to move closer to it.


so what do you think of the future track of this thing provided it comes back?

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, lolitx, Tak5, TomballEd and 384 guests