Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[NDG]

I guess we can dump 18z gfs because it starts 90E at 88W

[KWT]

The problem is for this system is that as long 90E keeps forming the whole complex is going to taken further and further westwards. This may only be a issue for another 24-36hrs as after 90E will landfall but obviously once over land your not going to see any development occur till it finds itself back over water.

Of course thats not to say that we won't see other centers try and develop within the broader area of higher voricity we have down there at the present moment and also we have to watch out in case 90E decides to make a visit into the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

Personally, I don't think one can draw "comfort" from it; the surface low is still situated slightly east of Nicaragua, and visible satellite data indicates a possible broad low level circulation developing east of Central America. It's not there at this time, but there are signs of initial formative stages. Low level convergence and confluence is highest in the vicinity, and cyclogenesis still very plausible after the broad/ill defined low level circulation in the EPAC moves inland shortly. INVEST for the Caribbean system is very possible within 24 to 36 hours, followed by slow development after that time frame.

The mid-level circulation center is definitely well inland over Nicaragua now, not east of the coast, and I feel better about that. We were never able to find anything but easterly winds at the surface through the region today. 21Z obs are straight easterly from Panama northward to Jamaica. No evidence of anything organizing east of Nicaragua.

[Aric Dunn]

Its a tricky situation coming for the next day or so .. and its all dependent on if the 90E ( should be a TD now) if it stays over water or not.. if not and it moves over land and the circualtion is disrupted and weakens , well folks there is a serious amount of convection that would be of some concern sitting over the western carribean!!! and if it stays over water the western carribean will have to wait until it moves away out to the west. and weakens which would just prolong everything.. because no matter what happens with 90E the convection and unsettled weather in the carribean is not going anywhere anytime soon so it will have to be watch either way..

i mean look at the amount of convection in the carribean !!!!

[Aric Dunn]

so everyone hunker down cause there is going to be a whole lot more model and satellite watching over the next few days LOL

[KWT]

Yep there is a lot of convection about in the Cariobbean though at least some of that is probably being enhanced by the tropical wave feature that is also in the SW Caribbean at the moment. Still yep got a feeling this could be quite a good test for us to get back into the routine of things before the true action really kicks off later in the summer.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS at H+204 DROUGHT RELIEF

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

90E looks better, and while there is plenty of stuff in the Caribbean still, it looks somewhat less organized.


NOAA Nesdis Western Atlantic Loop in pretty colors.

[Vortex]

90 E appears to be on the verge of becoming a TD if not all ready. Hats off to the Euro and UKmet as they predicted this a week out+ Now the question is once it moves inland will it make it back out over the water on the carribean or BOC?

[cpdaman]

perhaps 90-E has reservations later tonite to sit and spin over that large lake.


can't see this making it too the SW caribean, perhaps in a few days north of honduras.

[weatherguru18]

IMO, the sst's are marginal at best. For cyclogenesis to initiate, 78-80 degree surface waters are fine. However, anything more than a depression would cause upwelling therefore cooling the waters. Condusive conditions as far as sst's are about 150 meters of 80 degree water. Anything more than a weak tropical storm are slim at best.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8casha.png

From what I've seen, the llc is going to be absorbed by the more potent llc currently just off the coast of Costa Rica. Any established llc will be shredded as it crosses land. In saying that, the wave axis coming through the Caribbean right now may serve as a convergent asymtope which could serve as the ignition for something tropical from the remnants of the llc in the E. Pac currently.

(Excuse my spelling. Never was good at it)

[MGC]

Forget development in the Caribbean in the short term. 90E (soon to be TD-1E) will be the dominate circulation in the short term. Now, down the road, perhaps once 90E moves inland the remnants might redevelope over the BOC or GOM in a few days......MGC

[rainydaze]

My Bear is watchin' too!

[Aric Dunn]

new 48 hour forecast..

interesting...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nope, the Caribbean lost the race to the EastPac, and that looks like it is drifting more North than anything else.


The GFS was darned close, however, didn't miss by much.

[Evil Jeremy]

So it doesnt look like the Caribbean system will form, and the pro mets are saying no crossover. Is that it for hopes of a Florida system?

[NDG]

I still give a small chance of something redeveloping or forming in the Gulf of Honduras or BOC area later on the period, both GFS & ECMWF keep pressures low in that region through next week.

[Opal storm]

I think the bear has gone to sleep, not looking very promising anymore for the Caribbean situation. And a crossover of 90E into the Gulf seems like a big stretch.

[boca]

According to the model plots it turns NW and W over Central America.So Florida's drought woes will continue unfortunately. I need the link to the spaghetti model page?

[Ed Mahmoud]