2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[GCANE]

Strong, persistent MCS approaching Africa's west coast.
Should hit water within 24 hrs.
SAL is cleared out to 30W.
Looks like it might slip under GFS's radar.
Could get a decent pouch out of this.

[GCANE]

Convergence and high TPW well north of CV islands

[emeraldislenc]

Any model support?

[GCANE]

Any model support?

I checked all 00Z this morning and nothing.
Might be better to wait and see after it hits the water to see what they come up with then.

[stormlover2013]

As of now?? Where can I find that at ?

[eastcoastFL]

Strong, persistent MCS approaching Africa's west coast.
Should hit water within 24 hrs.
SAL is cleared out to 30W.
Looks like it might slip under GFS's radar.
Could get a decent pouch out of this.

http://i68.tinypic.com/dm5yci.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/2nbt1dx.gif

How long is that SAL forecast to be in that area? Where it sits its a pretty good blocker for CV storms. I'm curious if it will be there for the next month.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like on the 0zGFS that maybe a trough breaks off around 30n 40w at about 228hrs and tries to form into a tropical entity in the Bahamas at 16 days combining with a tropical wave coming off Africa in a few days, probably a phantom but it’s getting to the time when something like that could happen, a few notable hurricanes formed in such a way such as

Bob 1991
Joaquin 2015
Belle 1976
Carol 1954

But as always models will change and if this remains on future runs of the GFS then it may be a change to more favorable conditions which would be right on time with climatology

[GCANE]

Strong, persistent MCS approaching Africa's west coast.
Should hit water within 24 hrs.
SAL is cleared out to 30W.
Looks like it might slip under GFS's radar.
Could get a decent pouch out of this.

How long is that SAL forecast to be in that area? Where it sits its a pretty good blocker for CV storms. Im curious if it will be there for the next month.

A weakening Bermuda High and no Lows in the west Sahara yielding to a flattening pressure gradient.
Looks like dust will start to settle this time next week.

[Shell Mound]

One factor might be overlooked that could affect global model runs: the possibility that the +AMO since 1995 has officially ended, possibly having done so as early as 2013. The models are acting as though we are still in a +AMO background signal, but do not take into account the changing global climate. Accounting for the emergence of an -AMO signal might have a bearing on the model solutions via modification of various factors (input), hence reducing the incidence of "phantom storms" that we see all too often, most often on the GFS but also on the ECMWF.

[TheStormExpert]

We should start to see the GFS latch onto things within the next few weeks. Whether they’re real or not is yet to be seen.

[SoupBone]

Strong, persistent MCS approaching Africa's west coast.
Should hit water within 24 hrs.
SAL is cleared out to 30W.
Looks like it might slip under GFS's radar.
Could get a decent pouch out of this.

How long is that SAL forecast to be in that area? Where it sits its a pretty good blocker for CV storms. Im curious if it will be there for the next month.

A weakening Bermuda High and no Lows in the west Sahara yielding to a flattening pressure gradient.
Looks like dust will start to settle this time next week.

This is fairly typical for SAL though as we head toward August though, right? I understand that SAL is pretty crazy during July, then starts to slowly ramp down toward the end of July, making way for Cape Verde season systems.

[GCANE]

GFS has this LL Vort hitting the water on Sunday

[GCANE]

180 hrs out with a surface low and strong OW

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, that ridge is parked right where it shouldn’t be...

[Dean4Storms]

ECM ENS Height Anom painting a ridge over eastern Canada out 360hr so I would start to watch underneath off the SE US and Gulf latter half of Aug. when you throw in climatology and SST's there. Similar to set up that helped that Low that ran up the EC up into NJ. but possibly further South

[Alyono]

GFS has some monsoonal trough development in the Gulf in the long range

[gatorcane]

Wow, that ridge is parked right where it shouldn’t be...

That’s for sure but nothing out there with this setup thankfully. The GFS shows something similar in its long-range also.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High- ... ent-Eddies

[TheStormExpert]

Wow, that ridge is parked right where it shouldn’t be...

That’s for sure but nothing out there with this setup thankfully. The GFS shows something similar in its long-range also.

This would be bad if something can manage to get to 60W and stay at or north of 20N out of the Caribbean.

One thing is for sure, we won’t be seeing any Irma-like storms this season tracking across the MDR.

[GCANE]

This time, next week, latest GFS is tracking a surface low developing near CV islands and moving into the MDR