ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

May Euro seasonal:

Nino 3.4:


ASO SSTs:


The Nino 3.4 forecast for May appears to be favoring warm-neutral more than the SST graphic, before dipping back towards cool neutral by the fall. The May Nino 3.4 plume also has much more spread between the members compared to the April and March forecasts.

[JetFuel_SE]

May Euro seasonal:

Nino 3.4:
https://i.postimg.cc/bv4Mk08f/image.png

ASO SSTs:
https://i.postimg.cc/G274Xp7R/image.png

The Nino 3.4 forecast for May appears to be favoring warm-neutral more than the SST graphic, before dipping back towards cool neutral by the fall. The May Nino 3.4 plume also has much more spread between the members compared to the April and March forecasts.

Wonder if advancements in quantum computers could help with breaking down the SPB, cause this is slightly infuriating. Like how are you gonna make a forecast when the spread is over 2°C

Also that's not SSTs, it's the air temperature at two meters up.

[USTropics]

Here is the ECMWF SSTA May forecast for ASO:

[Kingarabian]

May Euro seasonal:

Nino 3.4:
https://i.postimg.cc/bv4Mk08f/image.png

ASO SSTs:
https://i.postimg.cc/G274Xp7R/image.png

The Nino 3.4 forecast for May appears to be favoring warm-neutral more than the SST graphic, before dipping back towards cool neutral by the fall. The May Nino 3.4 plume also has much more spread between the members compared to the April and March forecasts.

Wonder if advancements in quantum computers could help with breaking down the SPB, cause this is slightly infuriating. Like how are you gonna make a forecast when the spread is over 2°C

Also that's not SSTs, it's the air temperature at two meters up.

Yeah but it usually is a good indicator of the rough temperatures at the sea surface.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

NMME in for May. Cool-neutral consensus for the summer with a possible double-dip Niña by the fall/winter:

[Kingarabian]

Very positive SOI for the past 5 days and will likely continue for the next few days.

A moderate strength CCKW passing through the Pacific will open up the possibility for a short term WWB around the dateline. CFS and the Canadian agree on this scenario while the Euro and GFS do not.


Other than that, above average trade winds centered over the dateline will continue for the majority of May.

Looking ahead, this ongoing trade burst must create upwelling and stop these downwelling KW's. Because it's looking increasingly likely that there will be a strong MJO and likely a WWB over the WPAC by the end of May, which would eventually re-enforce subsurface warming down the line.

[Kingarabian]

NMME in for May. Cool-neutral consensus for the summer with a possible double-dip Niña by the fall/winter:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313651302367242/nino34.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313767714881546/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season3.png

Dang that NASA model only predicts strong La Nina's it seems.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

NMME in for May. Cool-neutral consensus for the summer with a possible double-dip Niña by the fall/winter:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313651302367242/nino34.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313767714881546/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season3.png

Dang that NASA model only predicts strong La Nina's it seems.

Yeah tbf it is kinda skewing it more negative than it probably will be.

[Iceresistance]

NMME in for May. Cool-neutral consensus for the summer with a possible double-dip Niña by the fall/winter:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313651302367242/nino34.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313767714881546/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season3.png

Not again! This past winter was NASTY with a La Niña! As well as the Atlantic Hurricane Season!

[Kingarabian]

NMME in for May. Cool-neutral consensus for the summer with a possible double-dip Niña by the fall/winter:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313651302367242/nino34.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/840313767714881546/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season3.png

Not again! This past winter was NASTY with a La Niña! As well as the Atlantic Hurricane Season!

I would... try to eyeball the mean average without the NASA model forecast. It would be more in line with the other forecasts.

[Kingarabian]

A +PMM signature is slowly trying to materialize. This is a feature that is usually missing in years where El Nino/warm-neutral attempts fail.

[Kingarabian]

Another indicator (although it's not really factored much), the IOD is usually negative during La Nina events. It has come in more positive as of late.
 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1389663595278049283

During El Niño, the anomalous (departure from average) surface winds near Indonesia blow from southeast to northwest, helping to bring cold water to the surface near Java and Sumatra and initiating a positive IOD event, like what we saw with the extreme IOD event of 1997. Similarly, La Niña tends to trigger negative IOD events.

[Iceresistance]

Nino 1+2 has REALLY cooled down . . .

[NotSparta]

A +PMM signature is slowly trying to materialize. This is a feature that is usually missing in years where El Nino/warm-neutral attempts fail.

https://i.imgur.com/n27tjvf.png
https://i.imgur.com/hJPihud.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZpY0CrF.png

I believe usually successful +PMMs (that create +ENSO) show up around the equinox. A little late now. At least the Atlantic isn't warm which means no roadblock there

[DorkyMcDorkface]

MJO forcing in the Indian Ocean will likely induce a powerful westerly wind burst there (and a subsequent TC or two). Given that this corresponds with enhanced easterlies in the Pacific, this tells me that the Walker Circulation is still coupled with negative ENSO of some sort. An event like this would likely help to send in reinforcements to the current background state.

[Kingarabian]

The present MJO signal over the IO will likely adjust the -VP200 90 day average closer to the MC; per NotSparta's graphs it looks like the Walker Cell rising branch is currently situated between 150E-160E:



Sorta similar to 2018 so far in terms of rising motion, just without the warm north east Pacific waters.

[USTropics]

:uarrow: The present MJO signal over the IO will likely adjust the -VP200 90 day average closer to the MC; per NotSparta's graphs it looks like the Walker Cell rising branch is currently situated between 150E-160E:

https://i.imgur.com/L7afGJO.png

Sorta similar to 2018 so far in terms of rising motion, just without the warm north east Pacific waters.

https://i.imgur.com/QuYD4cr.png
https://i.imgur.com/psVL2HL.png

There is a bit of a discrepancy between using anomalies and a composite mean. Your statement is still accurate, but here is a more apples to apples comparison from the past 30 years:































































Composite link - https://imgur.com/a/mIbrCLW

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392099824347095040

[cycloneye]

BoM latest proyection goes to cool neutral for ASO.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... reau-model

[Kingarabian]

Current trade burst is doing a good job in keeping the surface temps cooler than normal, but there's still very little upwelling at the subsurface.


This is a "surface" La Nina/-ENSO presentation where the surface temperatures are cool and the subsurface is warm. This is the opposite of 2017's surface El Nino/+ENSO presentation, where the surface was much warmer than the subsurface.

Looking ahead, the models are coming into good agreement of another WPAC WWB during June. It'll likely trigger another downwelling KW if it occurs.