Area Of Disturbed Weather In NW Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[tina25]

Still code yellow.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[MiamiensisWx]

Its interesting that the NHC forecasts this area to move west against climatology which would normally favor a north or northeast direction.I'm assuming that their taking into account the high pressure building in would force this westward into the Yucatan.So far I don't see any indication of westward movement.

Actually, the bolded portion represents a common egregious assumption. Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico (from Louisiana eastward) is only one of the three primary track regions, as illustrated by long term climatology for all Caribbean TCs in October. An equally large quantity of October TCs have stayed south of the CONUS and moved west into Mexico or Central America. See 1922 #4 (Cat 2 in Mexico), Joan 1988 (Cat 4 in Nicaragua), Roxanne 1995 (Cat 3 on the Yucatan Peninsula), Keith 2000 (Cat 1 in Belize), Iris 2001 (Cat 4 in Belize), and others as examples. In addition, numerous October TCs have moved northeast and passed east of the Florida peninsula and CONUS, although they did impact the Greater/Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, or eastern Canada. 1932 #10, Katie 1955, Lenny 1999, Michelle 2001, Odette 2003, and Noel 2007 (intense extratropical cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes) are classical representatives and examples. Some TCs have also impacted the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, including Hazel 1954 and the Great Gale of 1878.

Climatology for all October TCs that originated from the Caribbean during 1851-2007:

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6802/octobercaribbeanclimo1mg2.png

[Blown Away]

Its interesting that the NHC forecasts this area to move west against climatology which would normally favor a north or northeast direction.I'm assuming that their taking into account the high pressure building in would force this westward into the Yucatan.So far I don't see any indication of westward movement.

Actually, the bolded portion represents a common egregious assumption. Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico (from Louisiana eastward) is only one of the three primary track regions, as illustrated by long term climatology for all Caribbean TCs in October. An equally large quantity of October TCs have stayed south of the CONUS and moved west into Mexico or Central America. In addition, numerous October TCs have moved northeast and passed east of the Florida peninsula and CONUS, although they did impact the Greater/Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, or eastern Canada. 1932 #10, Katie 1955, Lenny 1999, Michelle 2001, Odette 2003, and Noel 2007 (intense extratropical cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes) are classical representatives and examples.

Climatology for all October TCs that originated from the Caribbean during 1851-2007:

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6802/octobercaribbeanclimo1mg2.png

Early October tracks normally go W or towards extreme SFL/Straits.

[Sanibel]

Weak formation struggling to hold on to convection.

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear to be drifting westward, it needs much more convection persisting near that low for at least a full day while staying over water and not moving ashore. I give it 5% at best right now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Model Support:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu-m ... =Animation

mm5fsu Merge shows a tropical storm in the NW caribbean by 120 hours,
and a trough getting ready to lift it up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I smell, in my unofficial and amateur sense of smell, no Caribbean development in the next 3 days, at least.


new GFS shows East Pac development

[caneman]

wOW! I woulddn't be so sure of that Ed. What a blow up of convection overnight. Can it maintain? That is the question.

[HURAKAN]

There is convection on both sides, Caribbean and EPAC.

[caneman]

still doesn't seem to be getting the model support on the 06 runs. Interesting.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 041145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Ed Mahmoud]

wOW! I woulddn't be so sure of that Ed. What a blow up of convection overnight. Can it maintain? That is the question.

Looks like the East Pac system has a head start...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd say the Pacific system South of this and East of 15-E is probably already darn close to being a depression. Looks like the future 16-E will move parallel to this as this crosses the Yucatan, at least in the short term.


In my unofficial and amateur opinion, 5% of less chance of this area becoming a TC.


However, as in past MJO pulses, the EastPac up-ticked first, and this area certainly showed a lot of convection, so I'd say the system passing the Lesser Antilles just North of Venezuela has a shot in a few days.

[Sanibel]

I wanted to say yesterday's nakedness was another giant 2008 d-min but didn't want to look stupid if it didn't pan-out. It did. This was another giant 2008 d-min with this wave.

Surprised that the direction is west which should give this disturbance problems in forming because of Yucatan. The MJO positive phase they were talking about is really showing up. I think it will carry this one whether it tracks over Yucatan or not.

Get ready Gulf.

[cycloneye]

I'd say the Pacific system South of this and East of 15-E is probably already darn close to being a depression. Looks like the future 16-E will move parallel to this as this crosses the Yucatan, at least in the short term.


In my unofficial and amateur opinion, 5% of less chance of this area becoming a TC.


However, as in past MJO pulses, the EastPac up-ticked first, and this area certainly showed a lot of convection, so I'd say the system passing the Lesser Antilles just North of Venezuela has a shot in a few days.

Is now invest 92E.

[Sanibel]

Early fall conditions and warm water weakned the front which allowed our wave to move west. I think some in here would agree it should turn N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd say the Pacific system South of this and East of 15-E is probably already darn close to being a depression. Looks like the future 16-E will move parallel to this as this crosses the Yucatan, at least in the short term.


In my unofficial and amateur opinion, 5% of less chance of this area becoming a TC.


However, as in past MJO pulses, the EastPac up-ticked first, and this area certainly showed a lot of convection, so I'd say the system passing the Lesser Antilles just North of Venezuela has a shot in a few days.

Is now invest 92E.

Double post from 92E thread

About time. I noticed this while thinking about the Caribbean system, and I think this has got a big start on the Caribbean system, and probably keeps it from developing.


For that matter, although a little behind, based on size, this may limit how much 15-E can strengthen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Early fall conditions and warm water weakned the front which allowed our wave to move west. I think some in here would agree it should turn N.

Only chance it has is to gain some separation from 92E.

[Sanibel]

I might be wrong but 92E could be a reflection of our Caribbean wave's energy. It could get sucked N behind our wave and transfer its energy to it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I might be wrong but 92E could be a reflection of our Caribbean wave's energy. It could get sucked N behind our wave and transfer its energy to it.

92E has at least a mid level circulation. I'd say it is time to watch this wave or my dark horse sub-tropical development from an upper low system.