Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[x-y-no]

also i'm ignornat on this....how much danger can a storm crossing cuba (south to north) pose to S.FL wind damage wise?......seems hits from the straight E or ESE are the worst.....followed by the SW (wilma) but from the south.....doesn't cuba usually knock these storms don't like 40%......anyone recall any bad storm to hit florida from close to DUE south?

If this were fall I'd be concerned, but it'd be very tough for a serious wind event to spin up and follow that track in early June.

If a track across SFL materializes, I'd be much more concerned about flooding - we've had a heck of a lot of rain these last couple of weeks and the ground is soaked.

[Derek Ortt]

Cuba knocks hurricanes down by 40%

It is NOT Haiti!

[cycloneye]

670
ABNT20 KNHC 062337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[jinftl]

irene back in '99...she was a wet mess...brought flooding and ts/cat 1 gusts to most of south fla...hit as a cat 1. Dumped 17"+ in rain in parts of south florida...knocked out power to about 750,000 and did about $1 billion in damage (in 2009 dollars). Death toll of 8 in florida (mainly due to post-storm hazards of down power lines in flood water) and 18 in total (Bahamas, NC)

I couldn't imagine what a wet storm like that would do given all the flooding we already have statewide.

I believe south florida actually gets more hurricane hits from the southwest than from the east...more wilmas and irenes than andrews in reality.

18Z GFS has quite a well organized system south of cuba..Several of the medium range models have been very consistent in formation of a TC over the western carribean. We now have lowering pressures, deeper convection over or near where the models depict initial development. From this point forward it should be quite interesting following the evoloution of this developing system. I think with warm enough SST's, climatologcally favored area, an improving environmental upper air pattern, model support, and now an area of deep convection with an associated low this all leads me to feel confident we have a decent shot at ana this upcoming week.

H+162 18Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

yes and that is why even though there is legitamicy to say "well the CMC doesn't show anything yet".......that thought IMO should be extended to say BUT ......even though it gives alot of false alarms ....it may just be getting a late start on catching this system....given the other models and relatively low pressure in the area.....no?

also i'm ignornat on this....how much danger can a storm crossing cuba (south to north) pose to S.FL wind damage wise?......seems hits from the straight E or ESE are the worst.....followed by the SW (wilma) but from the south.....doesn't cuba usually knock these storms don't like 40%......anyone recall any bad storm to hit florida from close to DUE south?

[AdamFirst]

It looks like this GFS track would curve it away from the Escambrays...it would still deal with terrain but not the 3,000-foot peaks it has to offer.

[HURAKAN]

If you want a cyclone to weaken by interacting with Cuba you would need a track like Ike's.

[brunota2003]

Talk about a strange way to hit Florida...as if it has not been hit from enough directions the past few years!

Yeah, I'd go with that 18Z GFS track, for sure! First impulse is moving inland into Nicaragua now, taking the convection with it.

What really catches my eye is the low developing off the Carolinas along that front. I don't think it'll develop into anything tropical, but it sure is spinning up.

I know what you mean there. I've been watching that batch of convection since yesterday, and the models seem to develop it further (though probably not into a tropical system, considering they were still showing it connected to the front) but certainly more than it is now.

[cpdaman]

thanks for the responses (regarding the due south hit intensity)......sounds like Hurr... king really packed a punch....cat 3 small compact storm

and while those are very bad....every year i pray that we avoid getting hit from a monster moving in from the E or ESE.....i think everyone would be walking around in a daze of disbelief should they return to S.FL shortly after that faitful day comes
knock on wood...my other big fear is that the keys get hit by a 4/5 that veers a bit off track and catches them a bit " off guard"....i think that has the highest potential for fatalities.....due to the lax nature down there.....sorry bout those less than wondeful thoughts....

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather is also taking notice.

[AdamFirst]

Accuweather loves to take notice to everything

[Derek Ortt]

Accuwx spins more storms up than the CMC

[AdamFirst]

Speaking to the CMC, has it caught on yet? I haven't seen it posted anywhere in this thread, amongst the GFS and NAM

[Derek Ortt]

nothing form the CMC

[NDG]

Shear is still high across much of the Caribbean, but is beginning to drop across its central & southern portions.

[HURAKAN]

GFS: 162 hr http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[jinftl]

NWS Miami continues to at least give a nod to what some of the models are suggesting in their latest Discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER
THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS EACH AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EAST COAST AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEK AND MOVING
NORTH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...DUE
TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME MORE MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE CWA AREA BY THIS
WEEKEND. SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE CWA FOR
THIS WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS WEEK.

[HURAKAN]

[brunota2003]

Storms organize? Is there a strike coming? Will they be holding up signs saying "SEASON CANCEL OR ELSE!!!"?

[BigA]

I'm a bit underinformed, but what does the above map represent? If it is a vorticity, what is that measuring? Much thanks.

[floridasun78]

so if this area grow we will have tropical system in carribbean right now south fl cannot take anymore rain speicaly miami beach that got 6 inch of rain on friday