Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#121 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:38 am

GOM to Senegal completely flat dead negative.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#122 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 28, 2009 10:14 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:JB still thinking a much slower than normal season, but with a somewhat enhanced threat to the East Coast and possibly a Gulf storm of non-tropical origins.


The Gulf has had, it seems, more than its share of upper disturbances dropping in and fronts reaching the coast, but nothing has seemed interesting, yet.

As far as a Northeast system, unless things change, cooler than normal water temps offshore and we are now a month past peak insolation, and the rate of change of sun angle and day length is starting to increase.

Image


Notice the much warmer than normal water off of Atlantic Canada. If we see a 2006 analog, that region could have to prepare themselves...
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#123 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:10 pm

Just one of those years, anecdotal (just my memory) don't remember things this quiet approaching Aug 1st. I know all the stats etc. just the potential activity and factors in the Atl. basin look quiet. WxMan's prediction of Aug 8th looks to be a lock, might be underdone if the current wave emerging busts. (I think it will)
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Re:

#124 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:14 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Just one of those years, anecdotal (just my memory) don't remember things this quiet approaching Aug 1st. I know all the stats etc. just the potential activity and factors in the Atl. basin look quiet. WxMan's prediction of Aug 8th looks to be a lock, might be underdone if the current wave emerging busts. (I think it will)

Yeh, I am starting to think even wxman57 is gonna miss the mark on this one. Definitely a much quieter year overall than any in a long time. There has been VERY LITTLE to even watch and/or comment on/prognosticate about.
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#125 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:39 pm

I find interesting that in an El Niño year the Pacific is so pacific.
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Re:

#126 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:42 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I find interesting that in an El Niño year the Pacific is so pacific.


That makes me think we're in for a burst of activity. El Nino is weak and not really a common event, plus waters are near normal.

I think the delay is because much of the US has been experiencing record cold temperatures and the jet stream stayed south for so long. With low shear the next pulse should provide some development.

In my amateur opinion.
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#127 Postby DanKellFla » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:17 pm

The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#128 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:23 pm

and spooky...don't forget that the tropics are spooky, too, because of this
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Re:

#129 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:27 pm

DanKellFla wrote:The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.


No no no. The Atlantic is dead.

The East Pacific has two systems and in the West Pacific we might see the strongest TC of the entire year this week.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#130 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:27 pm

This year the ITCZ was running a little further south than usual. Is there any correlation between ITCZ position and tropical storm formation? The ITCZ latitude still looks like a July pattern to my eyes but apparently it has moved north into the early August mean .
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Re: Re:

#131 Postby Category 5 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:31 pm

RL3AO wrote:
DanKellFla wrote:The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.


No no no. The Atlantic is dead.

The East Pacific has two systems and in the West Pacific we might see the strongest TC of the entire year this week.


The what? O_o :wink:
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Re: Re:

#132 Postby OpieStorm » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:41 pm

RL3AO wrote:
DanKellFla wrote:The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.


No no no. The Atlantic is dead.
That's all that counts.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#133 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:50 pm

Remember seasons when august would look like this....healthy-appearing low latitude wave and another about to emerge off of africa?

Image

Oh wait....this is the current satellite...who knew


Does amtrak offer service in africa now or is that another type of train emerging?
Image
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#134 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:16 am

The convection near us in the SE GOM is a sign of the switch going on.


Pretty soon.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#135 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:02 pm

I don't think any switch is getting thrown in the Atlantic anytime soon...

I think Hawai'i will be the action state in 2009.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#136 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:10 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I don't think any switch is getting thrown in the Atlantic anytime soon...

I think Hawai'i will be the action state in 2009.

I want you to repeat this in 3 weeks with a straight face. :cheesy: :wink: And I do hope you are right about no switch being turned on.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#137 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:32 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I don't think any switch is getting thrown in the Atlantic anytime soon...

I think Hawai'i will be the action state in 2009.

I want you to repeat this in 3 weeks with a straight face. :cheesy: :wink: And I do hope you are right about no switch being turned on.



It might be different in 3 weeks.

I am cautiously optimistic that we in SE Texas will be spared any serious trouble this year. Just law of averages. Alicia in 1983, Ike in 2008. 25 years. Sure, there were Erins and Edouards and Jerry and, of course, Allison, in between, but as far as power failures and missing televised sports, well. Rita killed our power for about 12 hours, but Texas had a bye week and I missed no college football I really wanted to see. The 80 or 100 miles between here and Port Arthur really seems to make a difference. They got the full Rita, and also got most of Ike. Plus Humberto. For their sake, I hope they get an off year.

But if the tropics are still completely dead in the Atlantic at the end of August, that would be kind of unusual. But sort of cool. The analogy I use, although I no longer really follow baseball, is a 0-0 pitchers duel. Different kind of excitement from a home run derby kind of game, but exciting, none the less.

Non-scientific WAG, gut feeling, Florida and Hawai'i see most of the action. Maybe the Carolinas. Can't rule out an El Nino year Andrew or Betsy type storm that hits Florida with a second landfall in Mississippi or Louisiana. An Andrew or Betsy storm would also make an otherwise slow year quite memorable.

I have a feeling the UKMO range of 3-9, with a midpoint of 6, is about right, but if we already knew the ending of the game, that would be kind of dull.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#138 Postby OpieStorm » Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:26 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
I am cautiously optimistic that we in SE Texas will be spared any serious trouble this year.
Aw shoot, you've done it again. Get ready Texas.
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Re: Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

#139 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:51 pm

OpieStorm wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
I am cautiously optimistic that we in SE Texas will be spared any serious trouble this year.
Aw shoot, you've done it again. Get ready Texas.


LMAO!!!

Ed...Ed...Ed....
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#140 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:15 pm

I detect no pulse at this point in the Atlantic basin. Wind shear continues to be a problem for any systems that wish to approach the Caribbean. You can thank el nino for that. Dry air is everywhere.......models are showing nothing for at least two weeks. Situation is dismal for any tropical system in the Atlantic.

But it's only Aug. 6th though, so much more time left for the Atlantic to pick up. The tropics can change very quickly.
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