Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Frank2]

...I know we're in fantasy-land past a week but I wonder how much would be left of this system after seemingly traversing Hispanola. What is this like 8 of the last 10 runs have this system nailing the islands and eventually impacting the US? Hard to ignore.

Hard to ignore, but better to ignore them at this time, since the models change from day to day...

The media (TWC included), who seem to enjoy making the public nervous, are already making an issue of this - even though it's not even an invest...

Right now it's just a wave that has moved into the ITCZ, so it's a long way in more ways than one from becoming anything worth worrying about...

Frank

[Brent]

This system looks like a monster for the islands unfortunately. I know we're in fantasy-land past a week but I wonder how much would be left of this system after seemingly traversing Hispanola. What is this like 8 of the last 10 runs have this system nailing the islands and eventually impacting the US? Hard to ignore.

That is a good point but I'm not really getting into an exact track. 100 miles north or south and it's over water, and beyond 7-10 days it's sure to change. I'm just going with the trends which is obviously a major hurricane threat for somebody starting next week.

Until we actually have a storm I'm not going to buy into any solution, just looking for consistency which is hard to ignore here.

[KWT]

True Frank but as has been said before when every model is developing it you've got to suspect the wave will go on to do something even if the models are being too agressive with development. Reminds me Dean in some respects.

[ROCK]

Steve nice point...GFS is known for this...Once it developes I look at the EURO for my guidance......Also we must realize the longer it takes time to develope the more westward....might slip under the trof...or it might follow Ana out to sea....


BTW- will someone call ANA already sheesh....

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL in low resolution from TD 2 run shows it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cpdaman]

If it were not for hispanola or cuba........ S.FL would be a very dangerous place to live and we would have double the major cane strikes. JMO but really a blessing for us.....and usually the storms are not major's when they are out by Hispanola (some are) ....cuba more likely .....hispanola....the mudslides there are the real threats...same with inland cuba....but coastal cuba got blasted by what....3 major's just last year....crikey

it is crazy that a hundred mile jog north or south when a storm reaches 65 W can have such different implications on development and damage

cyclone eye it is interesting on that run that the GFDL shows something closing off saturday nite in the s. florida /keys area

[Frank2]

By the way, here's the VIS photo of TD2 and the wave just off the coast - sometimes I think everyone should only look at this type of photo, and not the IR-colorized-1/2 mile sector photos, since they can make an ant look intimidating (LOL):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/vis-l.jpg

except for the small swirl, it looks like a typical day along the ITCZ, to me...

[KWT]

True Frank and I think the models are being overhasty with development but still a typical day in August usually has a system that at least has a shot at developing on the ITCZ and this is probably just such an event.

UKMO shows a very interesting set-up where this system actually catches TD2 up and gets absorbed into TD2!
Something to watch even though the other models are suggesting this will not happen.

[Blown Away]

12z GFDL in low resolution from TD 2 run shows it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL develops the Central Atlantic Disturbance in the FL Straits.

[Aric Dunn]

well right now that wave looks pretty pathetic.. but its a low latitudes and there is still a lot of vorticity around .. that and it seems to be lagging behind and a piece of energy still over africa may come off the coast a tad farther north giving this some more rotation..

[gatorcane]

well right now that wave looks pretty pathetic.. but its a low latitudes and there is still a lot of vorticity around .. that and it seems to be lagging behind and a piece of energy still over africa may come off the coast a tad farther north giving this some more rotation..

wait a few days and I'm pretty sure something is going to develop, whether its a CAT3+ in the MDR is another story though. Keep in mind the GFS doesn't develop the low associated with this monster system for a few days. Latest two GFS runs show the Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles, and Southern Florida getting directly impacted by a monster system. Let's just hope the GFS starts to back off and/or it is wrong. GFS is very insistent on this major hurricane developing though.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has a strong hurricane like GFS

South America Animation

North America Animation

[ROCK]

12z EURO has a strong hurricane like GFS

South America Animation

North America Animation

I shudder when you type in large font....gives me the willies....

[KWT]

Yep looks like that one is heading out to sea a few hundred miles to the east of the east coast thankfully on that run.

The 12z GFS and ECM both have rather similar broad synoptics, the ECM is more agressive in the weakening of the high and also lifts the system quite a bit before the 12z GFS does, infact its very close to the 0z GFS as it happens.

Just too early to know what will happen BUT the ECM moves this system very slowly in the first 72hrs which may suggest it gets a little further west then the ECM expects perhaps. We shall see!

[Scorpion]

Not sure how people can doubt a wave that has had unanimous model support for the past several days

[ROCK]

BILL follows ANA right out to sea.....nice...seems reasonable....

[KWT]

Only according to the ECM though Rock, which is rather slow with this wave in the first 72hrs, as I said in my previous post that could make a big difference for the Bahamas even IF the 12z ECM is spot on.

Just too early to tell what will happen with the ridge, I've got a sneaky feeling the models have the correct idea but are a touch progressive with it.

[ROCK]

Only according to the ECM though Rock, which is rather slow with this wave in the first 72hrs, as I said in my previous post that could make a big difference for the Bahamas even IF the 12z ECM is spot on.

Just too early to tell what will happen with the ridge, I've got a sneaky feeling the models have the correct idea but are a touch progressive with it.

Oh I agree...just making a comment on the run....way to soon to latch onto a track.

WE NEED MORE RECON!!!

[gatorcane]

BILL follows ANA right out to sea.....nice...seems reasonable....

The ECMWF for the past couple of runs thinks a large trough will develop along the Eastern CONUS around 240 hours. That would clearly turn the hurricane out to sea avoiding the islands ans the CONUS. The GFS shows the trough but later in the run, too late to avoid a Florida landfall. One thing is for sure model support is there. Something is likely to develop but long-term track is just nearly impossible to predict at this point. Stay tuned.

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However, I am tempted to go with the scenario of recurving before the CONUS (and even Bahamas) at this point with more of a threat to the Leewards and maybe Bermuda. That is because both GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a large trough along the Eastern CONUS in the long-range but good ridging across the Central Atlantic in the medium and short-range. My confidence in this forecast is about 5% certainty though.

[cycloneye]

There is a good consensus among the global models but not a unaninous one.

ECMWF=Yes
CMC=Yes
GFS=Yes
GFDL=Yes
NOGAPS=No
UKMET=No