Wave WSW of CV Islands

[Riptide]

All three tropical wave players in the Carib, at 40W and about to emerge Africa are flaring up nicely today.

I still think the wave at 40 W will develop in the Caribbean. Looks like the convection is spinning around a broad center that is breaking down.

[KWT]

If this convection persists than I think Code Yellow, maybe at 00z? If development occurs aren't most of the models showing enough weakness to lift this system N of the islands and recurve E of the CONUS or is this the wave the ECMWF was showing in a few runs in the NE Caribbean in about 240 hours?

The ECM sorta lifts it out but its noit the whole story with the ECM ,it seems to create an upper low that digs down towards the lower levels whilst the energy from this wave works northwards into that disturbance as the wave lifts up.

[blazess556]

do you have a link to that?

[cycloneye]

If the 18z surface analysis is right, wave axis is still just inland with a 1007 mb low in the northern extent. And shows no new wave introduction south of the CV islands.

[KWT]

Yeah the wind shift would suggest the wave is just about to exit the shore. The southern portion of the wave is the area to watch IMO givemn there is already convection close...remember there is some easterly shear so the convection is a little to the west of the axis.

[Dean4Storms]

Either my eyes are playing tricks on me or I see a LLC in that loop above moving west and ending up at about 20w 9.8n!!!!!!!!!

[RL3AO]

Either my eyes are playing tricks on me or I see a LLC in that loop above moving west and ending up at about 20w 9.8n!!!!!!!!!

You may be seeing some pretty serious convergence from the ITCZ, but I don't think there is a LLC yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

Either my eyes are playing tricks on me or I see a LLC in that loop above moving west and ending up at about 20w 9.8n!!!!!!!!!

You may be seeing some pretty serious convergence from the ITCZ, but I don't think there is a LLC yet.

prob not a llc, but theres a definite spin there, I saw it immediately. If that holds together that may be the thing to watch.

[KWT]

Yeah without a doubt there is a fairly sharp wave in that region, its pretty obvious as has been said.

[Ivanhater]

Poofing

[Riptide]

It was mentioned earlier that the wave axis was just exiting the coast so you are probably looking at the wrong area my friend. The convection looks quite heavy actually on the western flank of the system.

[Ivanhater]

It was mentioned earlier that the wave axis was just exiting the coast so you are probably looking at the wrong area my friend. The convection looks quite heavy actually on the western flank of the system.

The true wave axis is still on shore but the area some of us were looking at earlier that was impressive is the one dissipating. Well see, but if the new GFS and EURO are correct with nothing developing then I would start wondering why things cannot get going with such favorable conditions.

The 00z model runs tonight should be interesting to see if they back off of development or increase odds. Something has got to give one way or another...

[Wx_Warrior]

Couldn't find a good lid jpeg or I would have posted it for you Ivan....

The slow down will turn around in due time.....(or will it?)

[cycloneye]

No mention at the 8 PM TWO.

[cycloneye]

The only mention of convection is on the ITCZ paragraph at the 8:05 PM EDT discussion.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N25W 12N46W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 56W-58W.

$$
FORMOSA

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps still develops

[Vortmax1]

LOL...you keep posting those NGP images and they never show.

[Macrocane]

Yes they do, click on the yellow bar that appears on the top of your screen, well at least that works with me.

[Vortmax1]

[xcool22]

Vortmax1 lmao