Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[KatDaddy]

From this mornings Hou-Gal AFD:

AS
FOR THE LONG-RANGE FCST WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE GULF.

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N61W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-69W INCLUDING BONAIRE AND
CURACAO ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM SAINT LUCIA TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO.

[lonelymike]

AFD from Tally:

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WORKING ITS WAY EWD INTO ITS BASE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE THIS TROUGH NO LONGER GAINS QUITE THE AMPLITUDE ALONG
THE E COAST THAT EARLIER RUNS SHOWED...IS STILL APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE DEEP S. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PULL UP STATIONARY ONCE IT REACHES THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND NRN
PORTIONS OF GA AND AL ON FRI. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE S OF THE AREA OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY HUMID AIR INTO THE GULF STATES. SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS LAST WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE
DEALING WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WILL SHOW
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...POPS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

LOOKING TO THE TROPICS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
AT LEAST ONCE THING CONCERNING TD 4...IT WILL RECURVE BEFORE
REACHING FL OR THE GULF. THE CANADIAN IS NOW THE LEFT OUTLIER
BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FL COAST...WHILE THE 02/12Z EURO
RECURVES THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. THE GFS IS
IN THE MIDDLE AND PRETTY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE HURRICANE THAT THE
18Z GFS BLEW UP IN THE GULF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS COMPLETELY
DISAPPEARED IN THE 00Z RUN. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
ANY TC THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE WEAK AND
DRIFT WNWWD TOWARD BELIZE BY THIS WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY... THERE ARE
NO OBVIOUS THREATS FROM THE TROPICS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

[HURAKAN]

430
ABNT20 KNHC 031142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Looks good at the moment but it is just coming out of Dmax so it could weaken as we go through the day as normally occurs with Dmin.

However if the system doesn't weaken too much, the NHC could well invest this one today, so we will see!

[Nimbus]

The TUTT north of the islands has been providing lift. Once it gets a little further west we'll see what happens. They seem to be concentrating on Colin at the moment but any persistent convection will make this area invest worthy.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

As the NHC has said the system at the moment is just a broad region of convection but if that holds then clearly that could need real close watching.

Seems to me like the convection at least is a little further north of where it was expected, though I'd imagine any turning would get going on the southern side. Going to have a little look at the Vorticity...

[chzzdekr81]

It will likely run into Central America before it can develop just like the last one

I think this one will lift.

[KWT]

Convection seems to possibly be influenced by the TUTT, its still drifting northwards, any attempted turning will probably occur right at the southern end which is currently weakening.

[HURAKAN]

loop



vorticity deeper

[KWT]

Almost as much Vort. as Colin at the moment.

As expected most of the turning is on the southern side of the convection....I think this one certainly has a fair shot down the line, but probably in the W.Caribbean and probably won't have long over water when that happens before it hits CA.

[HURAKAN]

impressive ULL, wow

[rockyman]

6z GFDL briefly hints at this system off the coast of the Yucatan:

[HURAKAN]

both, GFDL and HWRF, are hinting at possible development in the Caribbean Sea

[rockyman]

Here's a vorticity, divergence, covergence and track map from CIMSS. The "bullseye" over the southeastern Caribbean is obvious. I think this system has a fair chance at development as it pulls away to the WNW:

[cperez1594]

From JB this morning

In the Caribbean, folks in the western gulf should not yet write this off. Lets see where the system organizes, but the 18z GFS yesterday had a nasty implication. My feeling is this will be a storm if it can stay north of central America ( reach the coast Belize or north) COnvection should increase over the next 48 hours on its way wnw. At this time I think its final threat is from La Pesca south next week, but I am nervous about it.

[JonathanBelles]

This system should be an invest. It looks very good, and it doesnt seem to be effected by land. It is also moistening Colin's path it seems, which is an unexpected effect.

[MGC]

We'll have to just wait and see.....in a few days it should be far enough remove from the ULL to reduce shear a bit plus be away from South America too. I think the chances of this disturbance to develope over the coming days will increase.....MGC