Disturbance over the eastern Atantic

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like the dry air and SAL is still causing poofage...Being that we are moving into the 2nd week of August shortly, I'm a bit shocked at this...Last night it looked as if the tropical switch had finally been turned on. False alarm I guess.

[HURAKAN]

The twist is unmistakable ... should be mentioned in the 2 pm TWO

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like the dry air and SAL is still causing poofage...Being that we are moving into the 2nd week of August shortly, I'm a bit shocked at this...Last night it looked as if the tropical switch had finally been turned on. False alarm I guess.

We're in D-Min right now, that always happens. The fact is that the convective cluster is still there and will most likely energize during D-Max. The dry air and poofing has decreased substantially in the past two weeks and should do so further if the MJO becomes favorable. Hopefully we'll get something out of that area.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously the ITCZ is seriously far north and very tilted... Not sure if i have ever seen it quite like this.. it has a very strong a long area of convergence. it will take some time for any system to get going from that large area.. especially since it will have to break away from the ITCZ..

[HURAKAN]

I guess the NHC is waiting to see if it breaks away before mentioning it

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC neglects to mention in the TWO and I don't blame em'. This TW is about to run into a massive zone of SAL and it don't matter if the shear is 5 or 10 Knots these waves cannot survive that without a surface circulation. This may just be another sacrificial wave.

No question the situation gets alot more confusing in the long term. You would wanna believe the entire Caribbean should be conducive towards this developing.

[cycloneye]

seriously the ITCZ is seriously far north and very tilted... Not sure if i have ever seen it quite like this.. it has a very strong a long area of convergence. it will take some time for any system to get going from that large area.. especially since it will have to break away from the ITCZ..

Is not a flat line like in 2009

[SoupBone]

The twist is unmistakable ... should be mentioned in the 2 pm TWO

I wonder the same thing. Even if it's only briefly mentioned it sure looks like it deserves at least a sentence or two. I guess we're still a few days from seeing what/if any this one's going to do.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously the ITCZ is seriously far north and very tilted... Not sure if i have ever seen it quite like this.. it has a very strong a long area of convergence. it will take some time for any system to get going from that large area.. especially since it will have to break away from the ITCZ..

Is not a flat line like in 2009

no lol.. its tilted...

[SoupBone]

NHC neglects to mention in the TWO and I don't blame em'. This TW is about to run into a massive zone of SAL and it don't matter if the shear is 5 or 10 Knots these waves cannot survive that without a surface circulation. This may just be another sacrificial wave.

No question the situation gets alot more confusing in the long term. You would wanna believe the entire Caribbean should be conducive towards this developing.

How many times so far has the SAL had an effect on an up and coming system? Seems to be the talk of the season so far. When is the SAL typically supposed to subside?

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC neglects to mention in the TWO and I don't blame em'. This TW is about to run into a massive zone of SAL and it don't matter if the shear is 5 or 10 Knots these waves cannot survive that without a surface circulation. This may just be another sacrificial wave.

No question the situation gets alot more confusing in the long term. You would wanna believe the entire Caribbean should be conducive towards this developing.

How many times so far has the SAL had an effect on an up and coming system? Seems to be the talk of the season so far. When is the SAL typically supposed to subside?

Well that's the thing. When you have an Azores High as strong as we have now...never? lol. I mean I remember the Azores High being strong in 2005 also....that's the paradox here. We STILL have the blueprint for a monster season set up...we just need minor tilts..

We need the MJO to come, the Azores High to weaken slightly or enormous amounts of moisture from the MJO to counter the SAL. We need lower pressures aloft. In general I would say we need the high pressure to weaken...and we may start seeing that with the troughiness that La Nina's bring.


All of this can quickly happen with a nice MJO pulse. I would even say ULL's would become less a factor as the Hurricanes can usually rob them of energy. You can literally wake up tomorrow and see this happen at this point in the season.

[Gustywind]

[chzzdekr81]

Alright, I'm confused now. What wave are we talking about? There's a train of them in the eastern Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing we should all learn not to do anymore(and I'm bad at this) is look at waves over Africa.
It really means nothing....

[tolakram]

Crazy tilt, really pushing the SAL north.

[Frank2]

Looks like the dry air and SAL is still causing poofage

LOL - sounds like an '80's term!!!

[Ivanhater]

Model support looks good..My gut tells me this will be Danielle , but at first glance looks like a fish...

GFS



Euro



UKMET



NOGAPS

[KWT]

Looks like energy will slowly re-enfore this convection in the ITCZ and cause a piece of it to split away...

Still feel very comfortable with the idea of development with this one, synoptic pattern probably isn't going to be much different to Colin really, but probably will recurve it develops early enough before it is any threat to land.

[RL3AO]

IMO Danielle is coming out of this somewhere.

[HURAKAN]

Consensus