Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep, 0z stronger ridge.

12z, weaker.

Flip, flop, flip, flop.

[Aric Dunn]

Ridge completely breaking down in the Gulf, if this were stronger (good possibility) it will be headed into the Gulf

if it forms its very likely to stronger.. the environment should very conducive for a strong hurricane..

[Vortex]

may get an invest out of this as early as later tonight...would not be surprised at all to see this on the doorsteps of PR... then bending back wnw...

[ColinDelia]

broken link vortex

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Aric...clear weakness in the Gulf (liable to change)

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, that is 0z run.

[Ivanhater]

That's this run

[Wx_Warrior]

My bad...

Ridge builds back over Texas....prob stays south.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I do believe this system will develop. EURO has Ridge holding along Gulf coast keeping it outh of the Mid and upper TX Coast. of course thats subject to change.

[Ivanhater]

My bad...

Ridge builds back over Texas....prob stays south.

Like Aric said, if this gets a LLC it will likely be stronger and cut right through that weakness.

[Ivanhater]

I do believe this system will develop. EURO has Ridge holding along Gulf coast keeping it outh of the Mid and upper TX Coast. of course thats subject to change.

The ridge is clearly breaking down on this run

[Vortex]

Its either heading into gulf by way of the western carribean, across cuba, or through the fl straits all seem viable options at this point.

[ROCK]

if the pattern is progressive as I think it will be heading into mid- Sept then the ridge could just as well slide east....

[wxman22]

It is indeed breaking down...

[rockyman]

I find it very hard to believe that this system will take 8 days to cross the Caribbean...especially if it begins to strengthen

[KFDM Meteorologist]

On that 240 Map the High is strong enough and the position of it should keep the system from S. Texas Southward.

[Ivanhater]

On that 240 Map the High is strong enough and the position of it should keep the system from S. Texas Southward.

I would agree with that if we have a weak system, but the break down in the ridge is more than enough for a stronger system to take advantage of.

[Vortex]

I think the euro is too far S and W....well see...

[srainhoutx]

Zonal flow across the lower 48 would tend to suggests a progressive pattern.