Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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Vortex
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#121 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:05 pm

At H84 200mb High sitting right over it....add the very warm oceanice heat content...look out...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif
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#122 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:05 pm

18Z NAM loop...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#123 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:24 pm

18Z GFS rolls in 10 min....
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#124 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:58 pm

18Z GFS Broad area of low pressure across the western carribean....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal042.gif
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#125 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:01 pm

H48 looks like the low may form between Honduras and Jamaica...models seem to be converging on this location...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal048.gif
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#126 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:12 pm

H96 Main low slowly organizing between jamaica and honduras....this looks like the hot spot looking at all the guidance..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
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#127 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:17 pm

H120 strengthening near jamaica...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
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#128 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:22 pm

H138 continue to organize and head N/NNW towards central cuba...further east this run...looks like a sfl hit again or maybe just east...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
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#129 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:28 pm

were getting some consistancy now on whats going to take place...where the exact low forms will be critical to any potential landfalls...as we move through the qweekend the picture should gradually become more clear...
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#130 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:29 pm

H150 just off the SE FL coast...reminds me alot of Hurricane King in 1950 as I've mention several times...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
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#131 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:31 pm

H156 strenthening hurricane very near Miami...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal156.gif
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#132 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:32 pm

H162 landlall over SE Florida....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal162.gif
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#133 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:33 pm

another view...The hurricane hits continue for FL



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
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#134 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:34 pm

H168 worst case scenario for FL..moving down spine of state...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
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#135 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:34 pm

Agree Vortex, the exact location where this low develops will mean the difference in an east coast vs west coast FL event as far as direct impacts/landfall. Just 100 miles further west could make a lot of difference.
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#136 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:35 pm

H174 near orlando moving NNW


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
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#137 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:36 pm

Absolutely SLAMs south Florida......on the 18Z :eek:

GFS is pretty consistent with a strong system (hurricane) into Southern FL......
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#138 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:40 pm

H168 500mb view...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif
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#139 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:43 pm

Folks really need to pay close attention here in FL...GFS has been very consistant Other models latching on....Some place in FL is likely to experience a hurricane late next week IMO....This appears to be the real deal...All residents in FL need to monitor this situation very closely...
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#140 Postby xcool22 » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:44 pm

new orleans need to monitor
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