Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

KWT · #121 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:46 pm

Probably, unless Don goes the full hog and blows up and takes every one by surprise...

But yeah it'll be an invest pretty soon, no reason for it not to be...will be another long tracker, this time we may have something to track before the Yucatan though...

#122 Postby **JtSmarts** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:46 pm

Wow! So we really do have a chance to squeeze out Emily before August.

Weatherfreak000 · #123 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:47 pm

Talk about bullish....anyone who has been around here for a while can tell you a first TWO like that from the NHC is flat out BULLISH.

I'm paying attention now

ConvergenceZone · #124 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:47 pm

JtSmarts wrote:Wow! So we really do have a chance to squeeze out Emily before August.

Yea, it will be a close call whether or not it will Emily by then, but it might barely make it....

ConvergenceZone · #125 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:49 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Talk about bullish....anyone who has been around here for a while can tell you a first TWO like that from the NHC is flat out BULLISH.

I'm paying attention now

Yea, I actually thought they would go 10% the very first TWO.

Gustywind · #126 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:53 pm

Really impressive to see this early call from the NHC. Something to continue to keep an eye islanders... even if we're far away from any imminent possible threat. Let's wait and see what could happen as usual.

#127 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:55 pm

KWT wrote:Probably, unless Don goes the full hog and blows up and takes every one by surprise...

But yeah it'll be an invest pretty soon, no reason for it not to be...will be another long tracker, this time we may have something to track before the Yucatan though...

Yes,invest at any time from now on. I thought they would start with 10%,but they are seeing things trending towards organization and also,the models are keen.

Aric Dunn · #128 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:56 pm

ITs too far along too be anything less than 20%. could havae gone 30%

#129 Postby **TexasF6** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:01 pm

the would-be Emily ehh? hmmmm....fascinating...

#130 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:03 pm

TexasF6 wrote:the would-be Emily ehh? hmmmm....fascinating...

Will do the same track as the 2005 Emily? I wont talk about intensity.

Gustywind · #131 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:
KWT wrote:Probably, unless Don goes the full hog and blows up and takes every one by surprise...

But yeah it'll be an invest pretty soon, no reason for it not to be...will be another long tracker, this time we may have something to track before the Yucatan though...

Yes,invest at any time from now on. I thought they would start with 10%,but they are seeing things trending towards organization and also,the models are keen.

Absolutely Cycloneye For a month of July things are really ramping up a bit quicker than predicted given my untrained eyes .

#132 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:07 pm

Off-Topic=Breaking News - We have a developing situation at Talking Tropics forum with a 20%.

I was looking at it on visible loop this morning and thoght it had a pretty decent chance.

knotimpaired · #133 Postby **knotimpaired** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:08 pm

Personally I cannot wait for it to become 91L and the models come out and they are all running very close to Vieques. We have lived here 7.5 years and at least a few times a year some model always takes a storm over us and I do not think any of them have gotten within 250+ miles, with the exception of Jeanne in 2004 and that was a rain event. So that means if models have it going over us, we do not have to worry

That said, my husband's 2 daughters and 4 grandchildren arrive in San Juan Sunday night and are due to arrive in Vieques monday on the 1pm ferry.

So bring it on models, take it over us so I can relax.

But to be serious for a moment, I think it will develop but stay south of PR.

#134 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:08 pm

I was expecting something out of this.

But 20% (?)

It surely has my full attention now :roll:

Gustywind · #135 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:12 pm

expat2carib wrote:I was expecting something out of this.

But 20% (?)

It surely has my full attention now

Hi my friend, how are you? It begins to have really my attention too. Let's watch it during the next couple of days.

#136 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:13 pm

8 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N35W TO 6N38W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSING ON A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 8N38W. AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MOSTLY N
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

#137 Postby **Jevo** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:22 pm

Looks like its time to bring this out

Future 91L

Gustywind · #138 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:23 pm

#139 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:26 pm

Gustywind wrote:
expat2carib wrote:I was expecting something out of this.

But 20% (?)

It surely has my full attention now

Hi my friend, how are you? It begins to have really my attention too. Let's watch it during the next couple of days.

I'm fine Gusty, thanks for asking.This one we have to watch. No doubt.

Gustywind · #140 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:32 pm

expat2carib wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
expat2carib wrote:I was expecting something out of this.

But 20% (?)

It surely has my full attention now

Hi my friend, how are you? It begins to have really my attention too. Let's watch it during the next couple of days.

I'm fine Gusty, thanks for asking.This one we have to watch. No doubt.

Glad to see that. Yeah that's the one to follow carefully... as the first virtual projections seems to put the islands on the possible path of this twave. For info in Guadeloupe we have water temps climbing at 30°Celsius (today).

Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

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