Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[South Texas Storms]

Any idea when this could become our next Invest?

[LaBreeze]

18Z GFS long-range, 372 hours:

Dang this isn't good don't wanna see that in my backyard

is that todays GFS 18z run? I just looked at it and dont see anything in the GOM other than a TD or TS....

I know that this may be old, but I was wondering what sort of strength this model is showing of the system near the Louisiana coast? What sort of winds would this system contain according to this model? Thanks in advance.

[northjaxpro]

Any idea when this could become our next Invest?

This could take a bit of time to evolve. NHC TWD at 8 p.m. discussed that the tradewinds in the Central and Western Caribbean is creating convergence, along with an upper level low over Hispaniola enhancing the convection in the Central and Western Caribbean.

The overall convergence area will shift westward during the next 48 hours, where it is then forecast to interact with a surface trough which will be located around the Yucatan peninsula. This will be the time to watch for something to start to possibly brew down there.

[South Texas Storms]

Any idea when this could become our next Invest?

This could take a bit of time to evolve. NHC TWD at 8 p.m. discussed that the tradewinds in the Central and Western Caribbean is creating convergence, along with an upper level low over Hispaniola enhancing the convection in the Central and Western Caribbean.

The overall convergence area will shift westward during the next 48 hours, where it is then forecast to interact with a surface trough which will be located around the Yucatan peninsula. This will be the time to watch for something to start to possibly brew down there.

Thanks. Tonight's 0z NAM continues to show this system developing in the western GOM in a few days. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[BigB0882]

That NAM ends before any landfall but it looks like it would be very wet in my neck of the woods. Hope it will go into TX for all of them to get the much needed rain.

[South Texas Storms]

That NAM ends before any landfall but it looks like it would be very wet in my neck of the woods. Hope it will go into TX for all of them to get the much needed rain.

Yes please. Send it all to Texas!

[Nikki]

I would just like to thank all of you for the kind words and well wishes for us in Texas to get some rain! Even those of you that could use rain yourselves are "rooting" for Texas to get it instead! I know its weather, but still this Texan wants you to know how much she appreciates you all!

[psyclone]

it sure does look soupy down in the western caribbean. things can change very fast this time of the year so this is worth watching. hopefully the texas can get some much needed rainfall.

[tailgater]

I would just like to thank all of you for the kind words and well wishes for us in Texas to get some rain! Even those of you that could use rain yourselves are "rooting" for Texas to get it instead! I know its weather, but still this Texan wants you to know how much she appreciates you all!

Yeah I'm just hoping that you don't get to much at once time, I dont want to see yall try and make up all that at one time.

[Nikki]

I would just like to thank all of you for the kind words and well wishes for us in Texas to get some rain! Even those of you that could use rain yourselves are "rooting" for Texas to get it instead! I know its weather, but still this Texan wants you to know how much she appreciates you all!

Yeah I'm just hoping that you don't get to much at once time, I dont want to see yall try and make up all that at one time.

LOL! I agree!!!!

[Rgv20]

I believe this is the 850mb vorticity today's 12z models eventually develop in the Western Gulf. 850mb vorticity has really picked up the past 6-9 hours matching up nicely with the 12zECMWF&GFS forecast vorticity.

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Tallahassee describes the pattern which includes an E Coast trough and cold front. In the past such scenarios have picked up storms from the SW Gulf and shoved them Northeast

GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS BUT GENERALLY AGREE IN A RAPID
ERODING OF THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CARVES A
SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. THE ARRIVAL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FROM THE INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER HEIGHTS AND
GREATER POTENTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS.

NWS Mobile mentions the same Trough and Cold Front and thinks the potential low "Bears Watching"

HE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SWING A LONGWAVE TROF INTO THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES
BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WHILE THIS RESULTS IN A COOLING TREND TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN GULF WHICH BEARS WATCHING.
OTHERWISE...CHANCE POPS GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

[PTrackerLA]

Hmmm...

[jabman98]

Caught the 10 p.m. news tonight and the local met mentioned the tropical moisture but didn't say anything about potential development. Wouldn't have known if I hadn't checked here. Everyone in Houston is excited about the possibility of some rain, but it would be nice for planning purposes to know if we need to worry about wind too. Especially with this being a holiday weekend and people possibly going out of town. I guess time will tell.

[LaBreeze]

Hmmm...

My thoughts exactly. How strong, according to this model, whould that Low be?

[BigB0882]

Is that 132 hours on the GFS? Is that considered fantasy land for GFS or well within a trust worthy range?

[LaBreeze]

Is that 132 hours on the GFS? Is that considered fantasy land for GFS or well within a trust worthy range?

Yes, wondering the same here as well. I have a gut feeling it's fantasy land for GFS - am I wrong?

[PTrackerLA]

That's only 5 1/2 days away, not exactly fantasy land. Could be a huge rain maker in this scenario. Would be just what the doctor ordered as it drifts west into Texas. Definitely need to watch this.

[ROCK]

132 aint bad....but it aint good eitherfor the GFS...

I just tracked the 0z GFS run for TD12....looks like a 850mb vortex sits on top of Houston for 6 days...... like thats going to happen....never really developes into anything substantial.....wait a see....the GFS has missed storms before even when they were developed in the carib this year....

[South Texas Storms]

132 aint bad....but it aint good eitherfor the GFS...

I just tracked the 0z GFS run for TD12....looks like a 850mb vortex sits on top of Houston for 6 days...... like thats going to happen....never really developes into anything substantial.....wait a see....the GFS has missed storms before even when they were developed in the carib this year....

Yeah Rock. I'm interested to see what the almighty Euro shows tonight.