2012 WPAC season

[euro6208]

possible development this week in the philippine sea while week 2 shows nothing...looks like we won't see any major storm euqivalent to guchol until july...

[euro6208]

2012 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Updated Jun 20, 2012 16:00

BASIN CURRENT YTD
N. Hemisphere
71.0750
Western Pacific
53.18
North Atlantic
5.7125
Eastern Pacific
12.1825
North Indian
0
Global
205.1170
*S. Hemisphere Season:
146.32
*season runs from October to June


Accumulated Cyclone Energy
1981-2010 Climatology
Calendar Year / Year To Date

BASIN NORMAL YEARLY ACE NORMAL YEAR TO DATE
Northern Hemisphere 562 51
Western North Pacific 302 35
North Atlantic 104 0
Eastern Pacific 138 7
North Indian 18 7
Southern Hemisphere* 209 209
Global 771 223


i got this from Dr. Ryan N. Maue http://policlimate.com/tropical/ and it shows each of the basin's ACE. so far the northern hemisphere has 71.0750 and the westpac has 53.18 (talim still active). the westpac sure knows how to rank up those ACE' westpac sure ahead, normal year to date is 35, already at 53...

[dexterlabio]

Mawar, and Guchol especially, really raked up those ACE..


if im not mistaken, at the early part of last year's typhoon season, we also had high ACE above average for some certain time, but the considered "peak" months did not show anything significant to rake more ACE for the WPAC... this time though we might see a different scenario, if typhoon season this year started active then I bet we are gonna also end it with such high activity. The brewing El Nino could give us a different setup in the coming months.

[dexterlabio]

but for now it seems we're gonna see our next storm after a week or two.....Euro and GFS show just some weak low pressure systems but just that..if the MJO returns to WPAC/Maritime Continent then that will be the time, I think....

[euro6208]

but for now it seems we're gonna see our next storm after a week or two.....Euro and GFS show just some weak low pressure systems but just that..if the MJO returns to WPAC/Maritime Continent then that will be the time, I think....

wow that was fun tracking guchol and talim alongside watching the NBA finals! here hoping oklahoma wins today

[Typhoon Hunter]

but for now it seems we're gonna see our next storm after a week or two.....Euro and GFS show just some weak low pressure systems but just that..if the MJO returns to WPAC/Maritime Continent then that will be the time, I think....

Yeah I won't be surprised if we have to wait 10 days + for our next big player given the MJO and model outlook. Suits me since I've got lots of Euro 2012 football to watch and quite a bit of filming work on next week!

[dexterlabio]

i could be wrong James. i've always admitted im a euro fanboy so anything "consistent" it shows always gets my attention. its previous runs only indicated weak lows but the latest run finally shows a decent system 5 days from now. i cant help but to rely mostly on it, it's been doing good at short to mid-range forecasts. its initial forecasts on Guchol's intensity was a bummer though.

[dexterlabio]

the other models (GFS, CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS, etc) been hinting low pressure system developing but just barely a TC. still my bias self focuses on Euro and see if they will consistently show that scenario.



EURO 2300z. extended run shows it hitting south of China (maybe HK?) as a weak system.

[dexterlabio]

lol euro i was rooting for heat to win the championship for i was quite disappointed on how last year's finals turned out. still a good job for durant and thunder, they'll definitely have a shot next season.

[euro6208]

lol euro i was rooting for heat to win the championship for i was quite disappointed on how last year's finals turned out. still a good job for durant and thunder, they'll definitely have a shot next season.

yes i am disappointed that my thunder team took on lebron and the referees...clearly the refs were on their side lol...but anyways, doksuri should be here in the next few days...

[euro6208]

lol...im watching debby and im thinking to my head that this is a wpac system. the highest dvorak estimate is only around 35 knots...wow! if this was in the west pacific, we will never know how strong it is (probrably only 35 knots from JTWC and JMA in agreement with dvorak) but look recon found 50 knots! it goes to show that dvorak estimates are always low and that true intensities can only be measured by recon...

[dexterlabio]

i also tend to base the intensity to the appearance of a storm. If Debby is a TS in ATL then maybe we'll have it as a mere invest in WPAC based on its overall structure.

by the way, I know we have a brewing TC right now but recently models are coming into agreement again about another low pressure system developing. though euro doesn't show anything significant yet in the long range. once euro joins the pack (NOGAPS, CMC, especially GFS) then i will probably be cautious about it.

[euro6208]

i also tend to base the intensity to the appearance of a storm. If Debby is a TS in ATL then maybe we'll have it as a mere invest in WPAC based on its overall structure.

by the way, I know we have a brewing TC right now but recently models are coming into agreement again about another low pressure system developing. though euro doesn't show anything significant yet in the long range. once euro joins the pack (NOGAPS, CMC, especially GFS) then i will probably be cautious about it.

interesting..a system develops southeast of guam near the equator and moves to the philippine sea...looks like another *monster*.

[dexterlabio]

Climate Prediction Center now also predicts TC formation in Philippine Sea and even in SCS for next week or so according to their global tropical hazards outlook.

[euro6208]

seems like the area around the philippines is a magnet this year.

[Typhoon Hunter]

That's interesting Dexter, must be Invest 96W? Other than that I'm not seeing much in the long range to suggest SCS formation next week.

[dexterlabio]

^Well I suppose that's it. 96W is looking good right now. I'm not also sure about the SCS formation but that could also pertain to 96W which has a chance to enter SCS late next week. By the way euro now hints a low pressure system and tracks it off Luzon on the 4th of July, but still keeping it very weak... Other models also still showing the same, with GFS having a decent TC tracking towards Southern Luzon.

[euro6208]

an anticyclone has developed over 96W...potential for development is now high...

[euro6208]

euro doesn't show anything developing in the near future...

[euro6208]

el nino is here! looks like the west pacific is starting to react as convection is blowing up all over the place even to the international dateline...