Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

[GCANE]

Well its about to run into some moderate shear, that will at least in the next couple days enhance the convection then depending on where the wave axis is will be a light shear again in the northern carrib or just north of carrib.

Agreed, shear may actually enhance MCS development.

Nice cluster of them this morning - looks better than yesterday.

Could also be moving in a more favorable SAL environment in the next day or so.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

Will be interesting to see what happens when it gets on the SW side of that ULL.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

[GCANE]

Looks like it is just on the edge of the dust

http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... atest.jpeg

[wxman57]

I still think that actual development chances (becoming a TD/TS) within the next 48 hours are much closer to zero than to the 10% given in the outlook. Don't read too much into a 10% chance of development, the forecaster is being quite generous with his estimate. Beyond 48 hours, chances might be a little closer to 10% than to 0%, but that's still a good 90% chance it just brings a little rain to the NE Caribbean late this weekend into early next week. I still think we're in for a quiet next 3-4 weeks across the tropics.

[Dean4Storms]

Impressive dust plume for this time of year. I think the drought in Africa is going to play havoc with storms being able to form until they reach the Carib. Sea this year.

[Dean4Storms]

I still think that actual development chances (becoming a TD/TS) within the next 48 hours are much closer to zero than to the 10% given in the outlook. Don't read too much into a 10% chance of development, the forecaster is being quite generous with his estimate. Beyond 48 hours, chances might be a little closer to 10% than to 0%, but that's still a good 90% chance it just brings a little rain to the NE Caribbean late this weekend into early next week. I still think we're in for a quiet next 3-4 weeks across the tropics.

I agree, MJO gone and fronts not making it to the Gulf and this dust will be a TW killer.

The only area I think would stand a slim chance over the 3-4 weeks would be off the US East Coast, but they will be trucking it Northeastward.

[JPmia]

Aric,you agree that this wave may not develop,but it may send a signal about how the tracks of the future stronger ones may take and show the pattern when the peak of the season arrives?

Cycloneye that is a great question you pose and I would love to see some analysis about what the current setup means for the season.. this wave's path.. the very hot temps/high pressure over the Central US and parts of the Carribbean, etc.. perhaps another thread? I certainly don't have the expertise to begin that discussion.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS looks like it tries to get something going from this wave in the far western carrib.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking good today......this wave sure is persistent. 10% looks good to me.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=Up to 20%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TODAY...
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[wxman57]

Still about 20% too high for development chances during the next 24 hours. It's moving into increasing wind shear over the weekend. Development chances still near zero. Stacey Stewart is always way too aggressive with development potential.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah not surprised with the convection increasing... but a little surprised they did it so fast being that it just started to increase this morning. There is still clearly a small circ on the eastern side now being covered by convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Still about 20% too high for development chances during the next 24 hours. It's moving into increasing wind shear over the weekend. Development chances still near zero. Stacey Stewart is always way too aggressive with development potential.

to be honest. its low enough in latitude that the shear should not get above 15kts until its enters the eastern carribean and which time if it does not have a well defined circ it wont happen there anyway and the shear or upper divergence should help aid convection. So I believe thats what they are looking at.

[cycloneye]

They may tag it as 97L if convection persists.

[Aric Dunn]

They may tag it as 97L if convection persists.

yeah, wont hurt to run some higher res models on it. its pretty small and the global models may not be picking up on it.

looking at cimss the low level convergence has come up quite a bit as well at upper divergence if the convection maintains or even increases they might just make it an Invest.

[ROCK]

that convection is right over what I presume the center on the east side as Aric pointed out. I saw it yesterday when it was exposed. This should help it if anything. Shear is not too bad either.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

It's definitely looking weaker than yesterday. Take a look at the MIMIC-TPW loop. Getting elongated and moisture is decreasing. Less rotation, too:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Took a McIdas shot of it. No evidence of anything but a wave axis. If it was going to develop by noon Sunday then it would be demonstrating some low-level rotation:

[cycloneye]

Well Aric and folks,it happened! Thread is closed as is 97L.

Go to the invest 97L thread at active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113074&st=0&sk=t&sd=a