Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

The life of this thread is getting shorter and shorter as is clinging on life support as every minute pass by. We will have to shift the posting of models runs from here to the Global Model Runs Discussion Thread.

[wxman57]

12z GFS still spitting out a closed Low east of the Yucatan by the 5th and then takes it northward deepening it toward the Gulf.

Mmmmmm that would be nice. Sure could use the rain here in Texas.

Not in Texas, in Florida, maybe. West wind 50-60 kts aloft across Texas and northern Gulf wouldn't allow anything to come this way.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The fact that the GFS ensemble mean shows a 1005 millibar low in 288 hours is significant in itself. As was stated at the very beginning of this thread, the GFS was likely too progressive with the MJO pulse -- and thus development -- and the very late May/early June time period was a good time to watch development. I'm not sure why people are getting antsy, everything is going as forecast. The ECMWF has even began to show lower pressures in the northwestern Caribbean by the first few days of June.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS starts to develop something in the gulf of Hondoras at 180 hrs, this is the first run that shows a low forming before truncation which means this system is becoming more of a possibility

[cycloneye]

The 12zGFS starts to develop something in the gulf of Hondoras at 180 hrs, this is the first run that shows a low forming before truncation which means this system is becoming more of a possibility

If the ECMWF joins GFS developing in the same area and timeframe,then it would be a formidable consensus. But without the Euro,I can't jump into the developing bandwagon unless a low pressure with convection is present and then I would follow GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro only shows a broad area of low pressure at most, but it tends to be slow to join the development train so I guess around mid week we'll see if such a storm is in the cards

[cycloneye]

What may be a sure thing apart from any type of TC development that could occur is a good deal of moisture in the Western Caribbean going northward to reach the Florida Penninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

What may be a sure thing apart from any type of TC development that could occur is a good deal of moisture in the Western Caribbean going northward to reach the Florida Penninsula.

the CMC also has development in the same time frame though the track different. the navgem also showing development. clearly still needs to be watched and actually. the models are saying in as little as 72 to 96 hours we should see the first signs of the it.

navgem
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

euro
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Here is a discussion of all this situation by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... velopment/

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a discussion of all this situation by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... velopment/

very good discussion.

[Hurricane Jed]

12z GFS still spitting out a closed Low east of the Yucatan by the 5th and then takes it northward deepening it toward the Gulf.

Mmmmmm that would be nice. Sure could use the rain here in Texas.

Not in Texas, in Florida, maybe. West wind 50-60 kts aloft across Texas and northern Gulf wouldn't allow anything to come this way.

I'm -removed-?

[boca]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ip_p24.gif

The 00z GFS rolled out its getting interesting for Florida and its been consisitant.

[hurricanexyz]

remember what Levi said we can't be certain until the monsoon circulation is materializes

[bamajammer4eva]

4-9 days away

[NDG]

OK, I am back to paying more attention now that the GFS is showing development within 192 hrs or so.
I will pay more attention once is within 120 hrs and both the Euro and CMC/GEM show also development in the same area as the GFS is.
I know that the euro shows lowering pressures but it is still showing a broad circulation and CMC shows development but underneath the mid level low over the FL Straights.

[Dean4Storms]

From Crown.....

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7362

[boca]

From Crown.....

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7362

Thanks Dean4Storms I was looking for crowns info on the potential storm system in the Caribbean.I posted about this last night too.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS continues advertising a wet outlook for most of the caribbean and florida. we shall see

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NCEP ensembles indicate a greater than 95% probability of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean between days 5 and 10.



Over half of the GFS ensembles now show tropical cyclone development next week:

[psyclone]

the east pac is bubbling nicely. I hope something fires in the Caribbean next week but who knows. I'll settle for a plume of tropical moisture which has been and remains a good possibility.