Tropical Wave (Pouch 12L) E Atlantic - (Is Invest 98L)

[gatorcane]

63 hours on the 00Z GFS:

[gatorcane]

GFS is out to 90 hours now and the system is fully in tact heading west in the MDR. Let's see where it ends up and how strong it gets.

[RL3AO]

Not only are sst anomolies overrated, so are sst maps. Water will support a major in 99% of the worlds tropics. Atmospheric conditions determine everything.

[SFLcane]

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[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

recurves pretty quickly..

Very similar track there that we have seem last couple seasons

[AtlanticWind]

recurves city..not even close

It means nothing once the models are out past 160 hours or so. Too many variables .This is why run it takes into Mexico and another run it recurves

[SFLcane]

recurves city..not even close

It means nothing once the models are out past 160 hours or so. Too many variables .This is why run it takes into Mexico and another run it recurves

Indeed! Very little skill that far out in time but that weakness is very notable in the models of recent atleast in my take. Heres this afternoons european at 240 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f240.gif

[blp]

00z CMC now has it all the way to Hispaniola were it tears up. Also under a strong ridge.

[BigB0882]

If the storm forms that far out there to the East then I would imagine that climatology STRONGLY favors a recurve. A recurve may or may not be a signal of a major pattern change. It was only a few runs ago that this went all the way to Mexico. I will not even worry about landfall worries until this thing forms. If it wait to ramp up much further West then we will need to take a totally different look.

['CaneFreak]

Recurves and then retrogrades back to the coast...gets within 100 miles of the MA coast and then heads out to sea...this is definitely still one to watch...this model has now projected several times over the past few days that Dorian will come from this wave and track very far to the west and possibly impact land in the Lower 48 and/or the Caribbean. This pattern is NOT ANYTHING LIKE what we saw in 2010, 2011, or 2012. Not even close. And I know what you are going to say, Sandy. But this is not October; this is AUGUST. We didn't have this pattern in August in the past few seasons. This is a different year now - (in my opinion) a year of trouble for the US and Caribbean.

recurves pretty quickly..

Very similar track there that we have seem last couple seasons

[Hurricane Alexis]

GFS has a weaker system this run.

[cycloneye]

GFS has a weaker system this run.

Yes,this 06z run was a bust for development from the start. Let's wait for the 12z to see in which camp it is. (Strong, weak or shows nothing)

[RL3AO]

Sorry to go off topic, but if you look at the NRL site you will see there are no active invests worldwide at the moment. Hard to tell its late July.

[Alyono]

finally some sanity from the GFS. Was clear yesterday that this was a modelcane

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agree. It was only a few weeks back when we had Chantal and the gfs had a tropical storm train coming behind her through the mid Atlantic. And yet we have never had so much an invest since then

[NDG]

Most likely the 06z GFS run shows a weaker system after it passes to the south of CV Islands because it shows the system on a much further northerly track over sub 26 deg C waters between the 30th and 40th longitude.
Which brings up a good point, that if this disturbance wants to organize as it tracks westward it better stay closer to the 15th latitude between those longitudes, closer to the warm waters and moist environment.

[cycloneye]

A big bust for GFS?

This is the NHC Marine discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

LOOKING WAY AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL GFS
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
ATLC. WHILE CONSISTENT...THE GFS REMAINS A STARK OUTLIER WITH
EVERY OTHER MODEL INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE GFS AND THE USUALLY
BULLISH CANADIAN. THIS SEEMS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK FAVORS
THE ECMWF SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. NWPS DOES NOT
GO THAT FAR IN TIME...SO FORECAST SEAS ARE HEAVILY MODIFIED FROM
THE WAY OVERDONE WW3 WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS.

[ninel conde]

finally some sanity from the GFS. Was clear yesterday that this was a modelcane

yea, its bone dry in the tropics. when Joe doesnt even mention a modelcane you know things are dead.

[ninel conde]

Most likely the 06z GFS run shows a weaker system after it passes to the south of CV Islands because it shows the system on a much further northerly track over sub 26 deg C waters between the 30th and 40th longitude.
Which brings up a good point, that if this disturbance wants to organize as it tracks westward it better stay closer to the 15th latitude between those longitudes, closer to the warm waters and moist environment.

it doesnt appear moist anywhere in the tropics. Bastardi is harping on that non stop now. i think its going to be his excuse for a bad preseason forecast.