Possible development in the Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

Most likely this is going to be a halloween TRICK rather than a TREAT for those people like me who've been dying to track a decent TC all season.

[tolakram]

This isn't even a model storm anymore.

One of the objections I have for starting threads like this prior to any actual development is that the conversation will be lost. If this was in the global models thread then a look back would easily find the discussion, but this thread will soon be buried below all the other numerous threads in this forum.

I'm going to talk with the other mods to see if we can merge this into the global thread.

[CourierPR]

This isn't even a model storm anymore.

One of the objections I have for starting threads like this prior to any actual development is that the conversation will be lost. If this was in the global models thread then a look back would easily find the discussion, but this thread will soon be buried below all the other numerous threads in this forum.

I'm going to talk with the other mods to see if we can merge this into the global thread.

Recent model posts on Weather Underground still depict the progged storm.

[Hurricaneman]

This isn't even a model storm anymore.

One of the objections I have for starting threads like this prior to any actual development is that the conversation will be lost. If this was in the global models thread then a look back would easily find the discussion, but this thread will soon be buried below all the other numerous threads in this forum.

I'm going to talk with the other mods to see if we can merge this into the global thread.

I have a better idea, maybe it should get a % of development in the 5 day before a thread is started, because at least there is something thats a possibility. I dont see much possibility with this possible system

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[Sanibel]

The models can be blind to seasonal negativity.


This is good because right now my 3 remaining storms poll prediction is verifying.


Something could still come of this as it turns north (that is if the front draws it north).

[alienstorm]

At this rate the GFS will show a hurricane by Christmas, I don't see any more storms this year.

[Blown Away]

Latest FIM has hurricane force winds just off SFL coast...

[Steve H.]

Do you have a link to the FIM(s) please.

[floridasun78]

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsK ... 2013+-+18Z

[gatorcane]

CMC and GEM continue to be bullish on development starting later this week from the vigorous wave moving into the Windwards. Here is how those runs end. They both show a trailing low also which is interesting...

12Z GEM 240 hours with the system over the tip of the Yucatan:


NAVGEM 168 hours (will post the 180 hour image when it is available):

[Steve H.]

thanks sun78!

[gatorcane]

This isn't even a model storm anymore.

One of the objections I have for starting threads like this prior to any actual development is that the conversation will be lost. If this was in the global models thread then a look back would easily find the discussion, but this thread will soon be buried below all the other numerous threads in this forum.

I'm going to talk with the other mods to see if we can merge this into the global thread.

The CMC and NAVGEM are both showing similar ideas with development in the SW-Southern Caribbean area starting towards the end of this week into this weekend from the tropical wave approaching the Windwards today and have showed some decent run-to-run consistency the past several runs. The GFS has been inconsistent though but I don't think we should kill the thread just because of how inconsistent the GFS has been.

That said, the global models also seem to be flirting with the idea of some other development in the long-range from something in the Eastern Caribbean in about 10+ days from now. Maybe that is them reacting to the wet-phase MJO. That could be discussed in the Global Models Thread I guess.

[blp]

The 12z GFS has the voritcity although very weak running through the Carribean and then crashing into the Yucatan around 200+hrs. 12z CMC and NAVGEM still have strong systems in the W.Carribean and are similar. The FIM has a slower progression now and I believe may be developing another wave behind our current wave. I am going to wait for the Euro to settle the difference. If the Euro and GFS stay weak it will be hard to argue against the top two models IMO. I just have not seen a body of work with the FIM to know how good it is and I already know what to expect from the CMC and NAVGEM.

[gatorcane]

From what I can tell, the NAVGEM and CMC are both showing a very large anticyclone developing over the entire Western Caribbean by this weekend. The GFS has an anticyclone but it has it over the Central Caribbean instead. The low associated with the wave approaching the Windwards outruns this anticyclone and crashes into the Yucatan before it can develop on the 12Z GFS but that anticyclone does work it's way west into the Western Caribbean on the GFS also.

The 12Z NAVGEM and CMC both show a very similar upper-level pattern over the Western Caribbean and both show some kind of trailing low in the Central-Eastern Caribbean. There have been times before this season the NAVGEM and CMC have picked up on development before the GFS and Euro have and I just wonder if the GFS is having feedback issues and trying to make this trailing low too dominant and is missing on the development that could happen in the Western Caribbean.

The Euro is generally not good at predicting genesis so don't count on it settling the debate today

[blp]

From what I can tell, the NAVGEM and CMC are both showing a very large anticyclone developing over the entire Western Caribbean by this weekend. The GFS has an anticyclone but it has it over the Central Caribbean instead. The low associated with the wave approaching the Windwards outruns this anticyclone and crashes into the Yucatan before it can develop on the 12Z GFS but that anticyclone does work it's way west into the Western Caribbean on the GFS also.

The 12Z NAVGEM and CMC both show a very similar upper-level pattern over the Western Caribbean and both show some kind of trailing low in the Central-Eastern Caribbean. There have been times before this season the NAVGEM and CMC have picked up on development before the GFS and Euro have and I just wonder if the GFS is having feedback issues and trying to make this trailing low too dominant and is missing on the development that could happen in the Western Caribbean.

The Euro is generally not good at predicting genesis so don't count on it settling the debate today

Your right about this not being resolved today. Even though the GFS and Euro have had there problems recently, I still lean on them heavily. I just want to see something out of the Euro that leans toward the CMC and NAVGEM so that I feel more confident. The fact that the CMC and NAVGEM have been on the same page for several runs does lead me to think that maybe they are on to something.

[wxman57]

CMC and NAVGEM (and WRF) are the models I would trust the least for accurately predicting formation. And on the GFS, note that development always stays in that 360-384hr time frame since last week. Looks bogus.

[hurricanes1234]

CMC and NAVGEM (and WRF) are the models I would trust the least for accurately predicting formation. And on the GFS, note that development always stays in that 360-384hr time frame since last week. Looks bogus.

That's why I personally don't like to believe any development until it's mentioned in the TWO, particularly for the Atlantic, which has done quite well in tricking us this year with those phantom storms which are lowered and never develop.

[blp]

The mjo forecast continues to push a strong signal and now keeps it around into the second week of November. I would still be surprised if nothing ends up developing out of this.

[blp]

12z FIM continues with the W. Caribbean hurricane. Probably the strongest I have seen so far. So its the CMC, NAVGEM and FIM against the two top guns and the question is are they going to sink or swim. I am surprised by the consistency in the three models. I thought at least one would have dropped by now.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2013102812/244/wind_10m_f336.png

[blp]

The Euro, GFS, NAVGEM, CMC all have a low at 144hrs south of Jamaica.

Even in the low resolution Euro you can see it. So it is not like they totally disagree, just that the GFS and Euro do not develop the Low.