Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[wxman57]

12Z GFS & Euro are still worlds apart in their respective solutions. GFS develops a low in a couple of days, Euro develops a very weak low in 7-9 days, about when the GFS has it tracking up the east U.S. coast as part of a frontal system.

[stormlover2013]

guys nothing has developed yet, 8-10 days out nobody knows how the pattern will be, lets see if something develops first before we see what is going to happen.

[floridasun78]

so their add it again to outlook . so look like their support for area in gulf today after lost support on monday

[hurricanekid416]

Will Boris eventually combine with this

[blp]

You can discard the CMC. It is still showing Boris staying in the EPAC in the short run. The main difference between Euro and GFS is that the Euro takes ex Boris and drives him into Mexico after he emerges in the BOC and then takes some new energy from EPAC late in the run while the GFS keeps ex Boris over the BOC. Considering yesterday's 12z Euro had Boris staying in the EPAC for several days I would say the GFS solution looks to be verifying well so far. We will see how this continues to play out.

[hurrtracker79]

You can discard the CMC. It is still showing Boris staying in the EPAC in the short run. The main difference between Euro and GFS is that the Euro takes ex Boris and drives him into Mexico after he emerges in the BOC and then takes some new energy from EPAC late in the run while the GFS keeps ex Boris over the BOC. Considering yesterday's 12z Euro had Boris staying in the EPAC for several days I would say the GFS solution looks to be verifying well so far. We will see how this continues to play out.

Agreed.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My thoughts on latest developments. BOC development likely by 96 hrs.
Read more: http://goo.gl/AXz3qk

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Storm2k disclaimer added by cycloneye

[hurrtracker79]

Latest wind shear chart shows it has decreased by 5 knots as the upper low moves away. Slightly improving conditions...

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like some Vorticity down there in the BOC. Anyone have a Vorticity Chart? I can't seem to find my right link.

[Hammy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor

There is indeed increasing vorticity in the BoC, and it looks to be slowly separating from Boris.

[jlauderdal]

South Florida is in a huge drought so I hope the rain comes my way. Just an opinion not a forecast.

huh.. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

[northjaxpro]

Convection continues to slowly build down into the BOC. It appears to me that Boris is getting very close to moving ashore. Also, should Boris do just that, I am inclined to believe that regeneration in the BOC looks reasonable within the next couple of days. ULL continues to slowly pull away as well observing WV imagery. Shear I believe will at least drop to moderate levels which may allow a moderate strength TD or possibly minimum TS to get spawn in the BOC before this weekend.

[TheStormExpert]

South Florida is in a huge drought so I hope the rain comes my way. Just an opinion not a forecast.

huh.. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Were still drier than normal for this time of year, especially SE FL.

[cycloneye]

No change at 8 PM EDT.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A stationary trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is
producing cloudiness and disorganized showers. Strong upper-level
winds are expected to limit significant development during the next
few days while the system moves little. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of southeastern
Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM TWD:


GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N94.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE
LOW TO 23N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-94W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS OVER THE E GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE E OF 88W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SURFACE LOW TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N.

[northjaxpro]

Here is the WPC 21Z surface analysis map depicting what cycloneye pointed out above from NHC, showing the 1005 mb Low in the BOC, with the surface trough extending northward.

[Hurricane Alexis]

So the 18z GFS is moving two tropical systems through SFL? I find that hard to believe.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Looking better today. Convection going on in BOC and small spin.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

18z GFDL redevelops ex Boris in 36hrs. It then takes it close to the Texas coast at end of run. HWRF does not redevelop.

[stormlover2013]

Let's just see what happens when something develops, models won't get any grip of what will happen untill something forms, all I see right now is a lot moisture out we still have a long ways to go till something develops