Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[Riptide]

Rarely a mention without model support, could be a sleeper system.

[Sanibel]

That convection will probably force its own Low and you'll see the models come on board fast.


Persistent convection usually doesn't twist like that in the Hurricane Belt without forming.

[chaser1]

...in most years

[gatorcane]

Lower level convergence on the increase:

[Hurricaneman]

Has more convergence than invest 99L and definitely looks better than 99L so this definitely needs to be watched as it could ba a problem for the lesser antilles if it develops and by the looks of it it could become a tropical storm whether in a few days or in the Caribbean.

I do have a question, if this does develop and become something of significence would this go north of the islands and out to sea or will it go into the Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[YoshiMike]

Was wondering that too. I am new so I am not trying to ask a ton of questions LOL. But this storm is starting to look good. I think the NHC gave up on it a little too early

[Hurricaneman]

Not to mention that it seems like some banding features on the south side and possibly some inflow there too

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

gatorcane,the 12z Euro at least has something from this but doesn't develop right?

[gatorcane]

Cycloneye, yes it is showing something at the surface in 24 hours though no development on the last run, moves it generally WNW to a position just east of the Northern Leewards in 96 hours:

24 hours:


96 hours:

[cycloneye]

Well,one example of a system that had ZERO model support and that was a major cane Michael of 2012. A caveat is it was in the subtropical area but anyway no model saw it.

[stauglocal]

I've been watching this wave and wondering why there isn't an invest at the very least. Convection has been firing for at least 24 hours. Sleeper in the works IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

I've been watching this wave and wondering why there isn't an invest at the very least. Convection has been firing for at least 24 hours. Sleeper in the works IMO.

Didn't Dean and Felix in 2007 have similar model support, they barely had closed lows in the models for those so maybe{God Forbid} we have a similar situation here where something significant develops but is not modeled as much more than a wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

Check out the deep wave coming out of Africa.

[gatorcane]

Check out the deep wave coming out of Africa.

Yeah I noticed they moved the floater over to that one. Looks impressive.

Saved image before the sun goes down, this is a very nice looking wave - cloud tops warming some but has held deep convection since last night, let's see if it builds some more convection tonight during DMAX:

[abajan]

I've been watching this wave and wondering why there isn't an invest at the very least. Convection has been firing for at least 24 hours. Sleeper in the works IMO.

I think that qualifies it as an area of disturbed weather at the very least. According to what I read in a book several years ago, any area of thunderstorms which maintains its identity for a minimum of 24 hours is an area of disturbed weather. Then again, the definition of what constitutes such an area may have changed.

[cycloneye]

I have news. A low was added at the 18z surface analysis.

[beoumont]

Maybe the NHC forecaster on duty didn't mention the disturbance at 37 west because it has been moving nearly 30 mph.

The disturbance (large mid-level swirl) that eventually became Hurricane Elena in 1985 came across the Atlantic at nearly 30 mph; then finally became a depression between Cuba and Haiti as it slowed down to 22 mph.

But this is rare.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS still not enthusiastic. Gradually winds down the convection over the next 48 hours.

[SFLcane]

Guys the environment ahead of this very nice looking wave is very hostile. GFS is predicting strong westerly winds as it approaches the islands. I'd also like to mention kelvin wave could also be contributing to convection. If this is still holding together tomorrow morning it might get a mention but i just see how this being a threat but we shall see.

Are we in peak?

[WPBWeather]

Guys the environment ahead of this very nice looking wave is very hostile. GFS is predicting strong westerly winds as it approaches the islands. I'd also like to mention kelvin wave could also be contributing to convection. If this is still holding together tomorrow morning it might get a mention but i just see how this being a threat but we shall see.

Are we in peak?

Actually, this looks quite GOOD for this system for the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... FP_024.gif