Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Hurricaneman]

the September CanSips is incredibly favorable, after an unfavorable June. That pattern could yield 7-10 Atlantic storms in September

Thankfully, it is the Canadian

One thing i agree with you on is the EPAC MDR SSTAs are going to hold the key to the hurricane season and we'll know more by June

[SFLcane]

Well spoke have spoken to phil k. few times on twitter and he seems not in a favor of a busy year infact I suspect he will be calling for below average season in his april update. Those cold anomalies starting to show up near Africa are ugly.

[tolakram]

Why would cold anomalies in the eastern MDR make a season slower rather than shift development west? Honest question.

I think that a more damning indication of poor conditions is the continued well below normal vertical instability. Perhaps the two are linked.

[Ntxw]

Cold anomalies in the eastern MDR that links or rings up to the cold north/northeastern Atlantic is -AMO enhancement

+AMO (in general) is ring of warmth in the eastern Atlantic and cold western Atlantic, though there are other forms of it such as an overall warmer Atlantic. However before we use this you must take into consideration SST's change seasonally. Cold now does not mean cold later. Have to use it in context of longer periods than daily or weekly

Using this standard the single most significant shift is the far north Atlantic of the expanding cold waters (Greenland to Europe). It came in 2013 and has grown since favoring a predominant +NAO. The last big -NAO during hurricane season was Sandy before the cold waters kicked in and flipped the switch up there

[SFLcane]

And those expanding cold anomalies in North Atlantic are not indicative of a busy season per Phil k. Personally I'd take any season forecast in the coming months (this year) with a huge grain of salt as it can go either way. We shall see

[WeatherEmperor]

The below average instability could be linked to drier air in the atmosphere. It makes sense because drier air is stable air whereas moist air is more unstable. Maybe somebody can post some water vapor or whatever information so we can see how much dry air is present.

Also, while it is true that the far eastern MDR is showing cooler than normal anomalies, the western MDR is showing very warm anomalies so we could see increased development chances closer to home

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree so much with this. There are so many different factors playing so many different roles that its so difficult to say how active the season will really be. For me personally I am going to go with an Average season to olay it safe because really it wont take much for it to go either way

And those expanding cold anomalies in North Atlantic are not indicative of a busy season per Phil k. Personally I'd take any season forecast in the coming months (this year) with a huge grain of salt as it can go either way. We shall see

[SFLcane]

Look at dr Ventrice Twitter...(In terms of the tropical base state, September is looking juicy for strong Atlantic Hurricanes.)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ce9qpLPWsAQXF2X.jpg:large

[WPBWeather]

Again, the "cold" spots you reference may not be real and seem to jump from run to run hundreds of miles. I hope for a slow year too, but these data are not sufficient to warrant anything but speculation at this point.

[Alyono]

Look at dr Ventrice Twitter...(In terms of the tropical base state, September is looking juicy for strong Atlantic Hurricanes.)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ce9qpLPWsAQXF2X.jpg:large

CANADIAN MODEL

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Again, the "cold" spots you reference may not be real and seem to jump from run to run hundreds of miles. I hope for a slow year too, but these data are not sufficient to warrant anything but speculation at this point.

"Yep share this with Phil K." I'am sure he knows a thing or two about tc's. Either way it's anyone's case what things will look like 4 months from now when " real " season is upon us.

[WPBWeather]

I'm sure he does too. The info on the cold spots you referenced was judged faulty by other Pro Mets elsewhere.

[cycloneye]

Maybe 2016 may look like the 1985 season when only two systems formed east of 50W and there were 11 named storms?

[SFLcane]

well......The CFS shows below-normal wind shear throughout most of the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the season.

[NDG]

A lot of people want to downplay this upcoming season.
The latest CFSv2, after its adjustment, paints a more friendly environment for the MDR during Aug-Oct period. Lets not compared 1983 to this upcoming season when that year happened during the heart of a -AMO period.

[Steve]

Well one of the main reasons for comparison as was shown on the previous page or two is the March global water temperature profiles. I wouldn't have thought 1983 was going to be in the conversation. But you can't ignore the similarities in a preseason prognostication. Obviously it's only one of several factors, but 2016 and 1983 are extremely close in that comparison. So in my mind, you have to include that year in the blend of factors. There are some dissimilarities as well (as you noted the cool amo), winter temperatures from the preceding winter etc. So it's not going to be a complete match by any stretch. But it's in the conversation.

[Hurricaneman]

My numbers in the poll are quite reflective of a 2003 and 1985 hybrid as I left room for adjustability as I see a slightly above normal year but a possibly dangerous year if things wait until farther west even with a -AMO look. The reasoning for using 2003 is that my numbers are quite reflective of that year - a few tropical storms and 1985 as a track guide as I think the MDR will be below normal during the hurricane season maybe one biggie from there but I believe it will be a Caribbean, GOM and Subtropical atlantic type season

1985 had 6 US hurricane landfalls
2003 had 2 US hurricane landfalls

So I hope that this year is nothing like those years and we go another year without a US landfalling hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I noticed from the tropical tidbits site is that theyre SSTA map seems to have errors and doesnt match the NOAA site so I would take the Tropical Tidbits map as slighty erroneous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

The thing I noticed from the tropical tidbits site is that theyre SSTA map seems to have errors and doesnt match the NOAA site so I would take the Tropical Tidbits map as slighty erroneous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I totally agree with you, I always go by the NOAA site better, it smoothes out the ups and downs that could happen withing a week in SSTs.
I know there has been some cooking at the MDR during the past few weeks but with the models indicating the NAO going to at least neutral if not negative over the next couple of weeks I would expect a warm up once again.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting conversation between these experts with tweets from Levi Cowan,Michael Ventrice and Dr Eric Blake. To put it simple,the 2016 Atlantic season will be difficult to forecast due to many factors that may be in favor for an active season but other ones may come to damp that.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 6m6 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice Starting to think Nino 1+2 will play a big role. If 1983-like, it's a non-season. If 1985-like, perhaps interesting




@EricBlake12

@TropicalTidbits @MJVentrice see 1998. Mega warm Nino1/2 irrelevant



Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 3m3 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice Irrelevant to the MDR, perhaps. I also think importance of remote forcings change when +AMO disappears.



Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 1m1 minute ago

@TropicalTidbits @MJVentrice if true -AMO then balance changes to below/normal seasons. Big shift. PDO also looks like EPac not quiet


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 4s4 seconds ago

@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits I'm not convinced AMO goes -


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 3m3 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits will be fun to watch!


‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice @TropicalTidbits cckws will be a lot more critical than last year I'd bet


‏@EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago

@MJVentrice @TropicalTidbits not saying the areal-averaged one. This leading mode of active/inactive


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 2m2 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice Probably. What I'm hypothesizing has more to do with PDO projection on EPAC north of Nino 1+2.


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 1m1 minute ago

@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice ...which would be bad news for this year. EPAC may win TC battle again.