WeatherEmperor wrote:Luis,
Are the forecasting an additional 11 named storms for a total of 16 or are they forecasting 11 overal for the entire season??
15 overall as EARL was not included.Total is 15/6/2.
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WeatherEmperor wrote:Luis,
Are the forecasting an additional 11 named storms for a total of 16 or are they forecasting 11 overal for the entire season??
FireRat wrote::uarrow: I think November could be big as well, especially coming off the El Nino and having analogs like 1998 & 1999. Both of those years had impressive Late Oct - Nov storms. I wonder if the season will be more active than forecast? So far we've seen the 5th storm, right around the time we did in 2012 which brought 18 storms. 2010 saw the 5th storm, also Earl, late in Aug I believe, and that season had 19 storms. Time will tell, 16 sounds very plausible already.
WeatherEmperor wrote:NOAA released its Aug 11th update. They are going with 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. They say 50% chance of near-normal hurricane season, 35% chance of above-normal hurricane season.
Source: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlan ... since-2012
centuryv58 wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:NOAA released its Aug 11th update. They are going with 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. They say 50% chance of near-normal hurricane season, 35% chance of above-normal hurricane season.
Source: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlan ... since-2012
Going to have to be a hellava fall then.
We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at belowaverage
levels (less than 70 percent of climatology). While Fiona will generate some
ACE, it is predicted to track through a fairly unfavorable environment and is not likely to
generate large amounts of ACE. The average ACE accrued during the period from 1981-
2010 for August 14-August 27 was 18 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next
two weeks is for less than 13 ACE units to be generated.
The below-average forecast is due to several factors. Fiona is not likely to
intensify beyond moderate tropical storm strength, inhibiting its ability to generate ACE.
An additional tropical wave is forecast to move off of Africa in a couple of days, but the
National Hurricane Center is only giving it a 10% chance of development in the next five
days. Most models do not significantly develop this system. The sub-seasonal
environment is still unfavorable for Atlantic TC development, as the MJO remains
stagnant in Phase 6, which favors convection over the tropical Pacific and subsidence in
the tropical Atlantic.
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