Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[bamajammer4eva]

for the first time, the Canadian is developing this

UKMET has dropped it in favor of development east of Florida. Of course, Canadian develops BOTH

Canadian showing at least some consistency since the 12z showed something similar



This is the same timeframe on the 00z for next Thur morning. It develops the NE gulf system and already moved it well inland with a 2nd system inbound for later on.

[Steve]

Gfs doesn't do much, it just lingers

[bamajammer4eva]

Last 4 Tropical outlooks keep nudging this eastward towards the Atlantic. Wasnt it said latest UKMET favored this developing in the Atlantic instead of the gulf? Most models seem to randomly place Lows so anything may be possible!

Latest outlook

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located near Veracruz, Mexico.

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. If
the disturbance remains over water, some gradual development is
possible while it meanders near the coasts of the eastern Florida
panhandle and the northern Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Beven

[psyclone]

The HPC QPF maps just stepped it up another notch..

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
gradual development is possible before the system moves inland over
the southeastern United States in a couple of days. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall over northern Florida is anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[N2FSU]

:eek: The HPC QPF maps just stepped it up another notch..

[NDG]

I wouldn't doubt this forecast, the Euro probably paints even higher precip totals for the Nature coast by looking at its run from last night.

[NDG]

Very noticeable vorticity over the Bay this morning.

[tropicwatch]

Could be a beginning.

[ronjon]

Looks like a broad weak low beginning to form off the coast of Dixie and Taylor counties in Fl based on Radar.

[Dean4Storms]

That is the Vort we saw yesterday between PC and Tally, very slow drift ESE.

[tropicwatch]

A different look at it.

[Dean4Storms]

You do a tour of the buoy sites right along the extreme NE gulf coast and 42036 and SGOF1 and you have a closed Low. North wind, West wind, East and South winds!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[northjaxpro]

Is it just me, or does it appear that the trough axis is drifting farther S-SE into the GOM the past 6-8 hours? Also, it seems that the vort in Apalachee Bay continues its slow southest drift as well late this morning.

[gatorcane]

Is it just me, or does it appear that the trough axis is drifting farther S-SE into the GOM the past 6-8 hours? Also, it seems that the vort in Apalachee Bay continues its slow southest drift as well late this morning.

It is not you. CIMSS 850mb vort analysis confirms.

[psyclone]

Notice on those HPC maps that the axis of heavy rain moves westward with time...very little additional rain for cedar key after day 5 but Panama city goes way up from day 5 to day 7. I've always envisioned this as a heavy rain event with TC development a secondary possibility. ..but if you look at the extent of the heavy rain potential this could be a big deal even in the absence of a designated TC...reiterating a point often made...we need not have a number or a name for a memorable and potentially destructive event.

[cycloneye]

No missions planned at this time.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 06 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[tropicwatch]

I think the high sitting to the north of the system is starting to influence movement and will probably keep what low there is offshore.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[gulf701]

If anyone would like to view local weather data related to this area, here is a link that you can access. This is a Davis system we maintain at our fire station. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/saintjoebeach/

[psyclone]

Something else worth noting is the relative dearth of lightning strikes in the convective mass...a good indicator of a warm, tropical, high PWAT environment capable of extremely efficient rainfall production. I'm going to make a not-so-bold prediction of some flood watches coming out with this afternoon's forecast packages.