Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa (INVEST 99L is up)

[Kingarabian]

Looks even further north. Might be OTS sooner at this rate.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a possible fish according to the 0zGFS

[Kingarabian]

Running smack into dry air at 1004mb hour 180.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the mid level steering there is no route out to sea, almost straight west looking at it

[Kingarabian]

Moving due wnw hour 204.

[Dylan]

Let me tell you something. If you live in the USA, and there is a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic, this is not the pattern you want to see. This is a dangerous steering set-up historically, from a synoptic point of view, and is favorable for intensification.

[Kingarabian]

Slowing down, could be recurving soon.

[SFLcane]

Big old fish on thus run it appears.. developing this far out almost guarantee odds of impact on SE are minimal.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the steering it looks like the ridge is trying to build around it a it would have 2 options head west or stall out

[tarheelprogrammer]

Big old fish on thus run it appears..

CMC hinting at the same in the long range.

[Dylan]

Big old fish on thus run it appears..

The GFS is showing a 597dm ridge to the north of the system, which isn't a surprise considering intense TC's usually pump up the ridge that is steering it. That trough over the US better decay the ridge quickly if it goes out to sea on this run. The synoptic pattern being displayed is cause for concern from a meteorological perspective.

[SFLcane]

Indeed was looking at 18z... yikes turns westward with ridge overhead

[AtlanticWind]

It shows how quickly models can change this time of year.
They have being showing no development and now this.

[Dylan]

The angle that this needs to be looked at is the 0z GFS/CMC have a Cape Verde hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles in 10 days. The models also agree on a pretty potent Bermuda ridge that could steer this towards land in the long range. The UKMET also has the system but is much further south, and the 0z ECM has yet to come out but is also showing a similar scenario.

This needs to watched closely, especially when you consider the CMC/GFS has a significant tendency for right leaning tracks in the longer range.

[PTrackerLA]

Yikes hours 324

[SFLcane]

Ohhhh.... Frances 04

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS is battering the east coast this run.

[Hurricaneman]

At 336 has landfall in Savannah which is rare, look for left shifts beyond 7 days in future runs

[Hurricaneman]

Ohhhh.... Frances 04

I hope that doesn't happen, but it seems the GFS might be trending towards that so stay tuned

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting times ahead. It's amazing how much the models have changed today but it's that time of year. Time to get some rest now!