Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[Abdullah]

Can anyone tell me the criteria for a disturbed area to be declared an invest and who is tasked with the job? I think it should be an invest... But I know nothing of that.

There is no formal protocol to declare an invest, it's technically an internal method to track systems between the NHC and other branches under NOAA. Starting a few years ago, they've now used GENESIS tags before declaring a system an invest (as they have done for this wave).

How do NOAA publish invest declarations?

[AutoPenalti]

The 8 PM TWO is unusually late. The NHC has a lot to deal with!

It was out since 7:30. They have not updated the graphic. Who is Latto?

A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over
the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Maybe an intern while the seniors are occupied with other storms.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1169425078062391302

[Hammy]

Euro back to weak development at 144h.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro makes it a powerful Hurricane next week

[Sambucol]

Euro makes it a powerful Hurricane next week

Any indication it could come into the GOM?

[jlauderdal]

Euro makes it a powerful Hurricane next week

yes and there is a significant break in the ridge and ots on this run, gfs sends the energy all the way across but keeps it week until the end of the run and tries to do something with it...conditions appear good for development

[GCANE]

Looks like it setteled into a standard wave with some decent convection.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro +48hr



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[N2FSU]

+240


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[N2FSU]

0z GFS +240


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[N2FSU]

+384hr; Gulf bound


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[SFLcane]

European finally onboard with some development but thankfully recurves it pretty quickly before getting close to the Caribbean islands.

[Chris90]

A little off topic, but just to clear this up real quick since there have been some questions in this thread recently about NHC staff:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutstaff.shtml

That link will answer any questions you may have about who is who. Latto became a hurricane specialist last year, although he worked in other positions at the center before that. Hagen is a surface analyst forecaster at TAFB. One of Gabrielle's recent advisories was his first time being an author on an advisory, so it's new for his name to be attached to any advisories/outlooks.

Hope that helps.

Back to the wave.....

[TheStormExpert]

European finally onboard with some development but thankfully recurves it pretty quickly before getting close to the Caribbean islands.

Would call that more than some development. Shows nearly a major hurricane now. Thankfully like you said it recurves on this run.

[chris_fit]

I'm no Pro Met, but couple things...

#1 - This is 10 days out so this scenario likely won't be the case by the time the 12Z run comes out....
#2 - If it WERE the case, I wouldn't call this a recurve/OTS so quick..
- The trough is lifting out REAL quick and I think the storm will miss it
- The ridge to the W is building in quickly, would expect the storm to move W or even WSW if it misses that trough.
#3 - See #1

[SFLcane]

Makes perfect since to me it’s going to recurve pretty quickly with all these storms spinning to its north it should to continue to weaken what ever ridge there is.

[GCANE]

Very broad, low-spin TPW envelope. Nearly down to the equator.
This won't be lifting north anytime soon.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS


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[N2FSU]

Canadian +240hr


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