Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[SFLcane]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/izBrY5Q.png

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

NDG that map is for a completely different time.

[NDG]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/izBrY5Q.png

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

NDG that map is for a completely different time.

No they are not, both your "map" and my "map" is the forecasted h50 heights for 12z Sept 18th.

If you meant to say that they are from two different runs, well here is the updated 06z GEFS if anything it shows more ridging than it previous 0z run that I posted.

[SFLcane]

Lots of ridging though on the EPS.

[SFLcane]

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

NDG that map is for a completely different time.

No they are not, both your "map" and my "map" is the forecasted h50 heights for 12z Sept 18th.

Yeah the FV3GFS is a bit of an outlier with the trough.

[invest man]

So 0z shows another ENC hit. 6z shows a curve out toward Bermuda. Difference is on the 6z it introduces another low coming of the Del/Mar/Va area which seems to allow for the further breakdown of the Atlantic high thus ithas the pimple effect between the east high and the high moving in from the west allowing it to find a more pronounced weakness and follow the western periphery of the Atlantic high. I think the key will be if that low does develop along the mid Atlantic coast. Something to keep an eye on in future runs.

[AnnularCane]

It may have been mentioned before, but rather than search through the thread, when is this supposed to move off Africa?

[LarryWx]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/izBrY5Q.png

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

Despite this hour 228 map of the 0Z GEFS, it is nearly unanimous that the members recurve away from the CONUS and threaten the Bermuda to Canadian Maritimes corridor. The 6Z GEFS continues with the idea of a very good chance at a similar recurve but unlike the 0Z GEFS threatens the CONUS with a strong H with ~20% of its members: 10% in Gulf and 10% close to the east coast (1 FL and 1 NC). The 0Z EPS is kind of similar to the 6Z GEFS.

Therefore, what the overall model consensus has been telling me since yesterday is to favor a recurve east of the CONUS but not to bet strongly on it at this early stage as there’s probably something like a 1 in 4 chance for the CONUS to be hit. So, I’ll keep watching this closely at least for the next few days. I’d at least like to get a better idea of the actual genesis location/timing as there’s still a lot of uncertainty there.

[SFLcane]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/izBrY5Q.png

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

Despite this hour 228 map of the 0Z GEFS, it is nearly unanimous that the members recurve away from the CONUS and threaten the Bermuda to Canadian Maritimes corridor. The 6Z GEFS continues with the idea of a very good chance at a similar recurve but unlike the 0Z GEFS threatens the CONUS with a strong H with ~20% of its members: 10% in Gulf and 10% close to the east coast (1 FL and 1 NC). The 0Z EPS is kind of similar to the 6Z GEFS.

Therefore, what the overall model consensus has been telling me since yesterday is to favor a recurve east of the CONUS but not to bet strongly on it at this early stage as there’s probably something like a 1 in 4 chance for the CONUS to be hit. So, I’ll keep watching this closely at least for the next few days. I’d at least like to get a better idea of the actual genesis location/timing as there’s still a lot of uncertainty there.

Really can't rule anything out until something forms. Which probably won't be til Sunday

[wxman57]

It may have been mentioned before, but rather than search through the thread, when is this supposed to move off Africa?

It's moving off the west coast of Africa today. Shows up well on the TPW loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

[SFLcane]

It may have been mentioned before, but rather than search through the thread, when is this supposed to move off Africa?

It's moving off the west coast of Africa today. Shows up well on the TPW loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

Fast forward motion and broadness will limit short-term development but the moisture field looks good. Should get a mention in the TWO maybe next 1-2 days.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171044203792687104

[NDG]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/izBrY5Q.png

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

Despite this hour 228 map of the 0Z GEFS, it is nearly unanimous that the members recurve away from the CONUS and threaten the Bermuda to Canadian Maritimes corridor. The 6Z GEFS continues with the idea of a very good chance at a similar recurve but unlike the 0Z GEFS threatens the CONUS with a strong H with ~20% of its members: 10% in Gulf and 10% close to the east coast (1 FL and 1 NC). The 0Z EPS is kind of similar to the 6Z GEFS.

Therefore, what the overall model consensus has been telling me since yesterday is to favor a recurve east of the CONUS but not to bet strongly on it at this early stage as there’s probably something like a 1 in 4 chance for the CONUS to be hit. So, I’ll keep watching this closely at least for the next few days. I’d at least like to get a better idea of the actual genesis location/timing as there’s still a lot of uncertainty there.

My post was more regarding the deep trough the last two runs of the GFS operational show for mid next week in which its ensembles and Euro ensembles don't agree with. Way too early to talk if it will recurve or not

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171044203792687104

To prevent confusion for the general readership, John’s tweet has been supported by just about every GFS and Euro ensemble the last few days. It is, indeed, a risky setup. If there were a TC forming from 94L, the timing would be of much greater concern as that would mean a TC getting too far west to recurve OTS. But what’s been happening is a breakdown of this dangerous E US ridging/WAR starting just after day 10 to just save the day for the CONUS with regard to the wave now about to emerge from Africa with most but not all ensemble members OTS. However, there are numerous OTS that are within only 500 miles of the east coast. It isn’t like these are, say, 1,000+ miles offshore, which would make me feel much more confident for OTS.
My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.

[LarryWx]

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/e477Sxe.png

Despite this hour 228 map of the 0Z GEFS, it is nearly unanimous that the members recurve away from the CONUS and threaten the Bermuda to Canadian Maritimes corridor. The 6Z GEFS continues with the idea of a very good chance at a similar recurve but unlike the 0Z GEFS threatens the CONUS with a strong H with ~20% of its members: 10% in Gulf and 10% close to the east coast (1 FL and 1 NC). The 0Z EPS is kind of similar to the 6Z GEFS.

Therefore, what the overall model consensus has been telling me since yesterday is to favor a recurve east of the CONUS but not to bet strongly on it at this early stage as there’s probably something like a 1 in 4 chance for the CONUS to be hit. So, I’ll keep watching this closely at least for the next few days. I’d at least like to get a better idea of the actual genesis location/timing as there’s still a lot of uncertainty there.

My post was more regarding the deep trough the last two runs of the GFS operational show for mid next week in which its ensembles and Euro ensembles don't agree with. Way too early to talk if it will recurve or not

I agree it is way too early to say if it WILL recurve or NOT, which is what I’ve been saying. But it is not too early to lay odds based on model consensus of what the actual 70+ ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS actually do, which is what I’ve been doing.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1171029878906314753

[Kazmit]

Big ridge blocking it on this GFS run...

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing I don’t like is the trend of stronger ridge and less troughiness in the long run on the GFS

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing I don’t like is the trend of stronger ridge and less troughiness in the long run on the GFS

[chris_fit]

Still running it directly into the ridge it seems... or it's not as strong as we think

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Damn! 06Z and 12Z GFS hinting to a Maria Part 2 scenario in relation to PR!