2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

1) 1975 July 27th TS 03W Mamie
2) 1998 July 25th TS 03W (No Name)
3) 2016 July 17th TD 03W
4) 2020 July 16th or later TBD

2020 already ranks 4th all time for the latest formation of the 3rd TC. If GFS were to happen with something developing on the 23rd, it would be the 3rd latest all time.

Of course this won't matter if suddenly the WPAC springs to life later in the year.

[euro6208]

It probably won't be until early/mid-August that we'll see tropical activity pick up.

https://i.imgur.com/eAd2UkG.gif

With the season nearing its peak, SSTs/OHC remaining high and untouched for weeks, and other conditions becoming favorable, I think there’s a chance that there’ll be an extremely powerful Cat 5 Super Typhoon sometime in August. The WPac is locked and loaded, just waiting for favorable conditions to emerge for something big to explode.

Not just in August but also the later months. Historically, there is almost a guarantee of an extremely intense typhoon making landfall over the Philippines that is off the dvorak scale. You can see my post in the previous pages.

[aspen]

12z GFS develops a weak TC just south of Guam in 48-60 hours and tracks it W/WNW to the Philippines, peaking at ~1005 mbar. It’s not much, but hey, it’s something.

[euro6208]

12z GFS develops a weak TC just south of Guam in 48-60 hours and tracks it W/WNW to the Philippines, peaking at ~1005 mbar. It’s not much, but hey, it’s something.

18Z null as well.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

18Z as it peaking a little deeper. 972 mb.

[mrbagyo]

probably our next invest

[Hayabusa]

I still think July wouldn't be a nothingburger month, and instead produce at least a TS and if it happens it would tie with 1998 for only one storm reaching at least TS intensity, either way an unusually quiet July like 1998 or a new record breaking nothingburger July.
(And either of the two for such a thing to happen would make me doubt somethingx3 even more if this season turns out to be like or more quieter than {1998, 2010, 2017}).
Still 2 weeks more, enough time for atleast a single TS to pop up within July.

[euro6208]

Recent satellite imagery shows an area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of Guam, and multiple GEFS ensemble members depict a tropical cyclone formation. Therefore, an area of moderate confidence for tropical cyclogenesis was added to the outlook near Guam during Days 1-4, shifting slightly northwestward by Days 5-11. Confidence in this region is on the low side of moderate.

[1900hurricane]

That forecaster has an awesome name.

[euro6208]

The long tracking disturbance that GFS has been on and off for a couple days now crossing over from the CPAC is still there but weak. Whether or not this develops, the Marianas might get some beneficial rains.

Saipan and Tinian are currently in an exceptional drought, the strongest of 5 categories.

The weather will
change with the appearance of a new disturbance from across the
dateline. This system will cause scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms across the region. While very unlikely, the Navgem is
indicating that this system will begin to organize more across the
region. However, no other model shows any kind of development at
this time.

[euro6208]

Favorable KW to pass through preceding the MJO.

Will this be enough to spur development?

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1284258114779455488

[euro6208]

It's getting closer. The 3rd storm of the year in the WestPac is now just 6 days short of being the latest on record.

1) 1975, TS Mamie, July 27, 25 tropical cyclones
2) 1998, TS No Name, July 25, 27 tropical cyclones
3) 2020, N/A, July 22 or later.

And with no developments in the latest model runs, 2020 will likely surpass it.

[euro6208]

Looking very likely the 4th TC will get broken this year as well.

1) 1998, TY Otto, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 1975, STY Nina, July 31, 25 tropical cyclones (a super typhoon!)
3) 2016, TS Lupit, July 23, 32 tropical cyclones
4) 1983, STY Wayne, July 22, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 2020, N/A, July 22 or later.

[euro6208]

Any year can range from 20 to as high as 50 TC's.

The record low year of 2010 ended up with 20 TC's.

Northwest Pac: 22 TD's, 19 TS's, 12 typhoons ,& 6 major typhoons
All of these numbers are well below normal.

This just proves, it's not over until its over, and don't turn your back on the weather.

Thanks to NWS GUAM for all the stats.

[euro6208]

The world's most active basin seems to be confused with it's own mind.

[dexterlabio]

You know what, if it were up to me I am ready to give the crown to the Atlantic for the leading basin in terms of TC activity. This quiet period might be speaking volume to what we can expect in the remainder of 2020, especially if this La Nina is set in stone by the year end.

[dexterlabio]

Also, could not help but raise something that I spoke about last year. Based on what I saw in the ENSO thread, 2018-2019 is indeed a double-swing El Nino period. Looking back, the year after a double EN event tend to be a cool-neutral or La Nina year. And it appears that this kind of year features a record dud season in the WPAC.