Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[Nimbus]

12Z ECMWF had this coming off the tip of the Yucatan hr 87 after some apparent land interaction?
Looks like Agatha is going to cross into the BOC from the satellite imagery?
Or is this the expectation that the Agatha remnants will be sheared East before the surface low reestablishes?

[blp]

12z Hmon starting to pickup on the redevelopment in BOC. While the HWRF dissipates Agatha and develops further northeast similar to CMC.

Hmon


Hwrf

[cycloneye]

From the Agatha 4 PM CDT discussion:

The global models continue to
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1531364316364013575

[Cat5James]

18Z GFS coming around. More in line with CMC/Euro.

[AtlanticWind]

18z GFS solution further west skirts coast of SE florida, closer to EURO now.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS solution further west skirts coast of SE florida, closer to EURO now.

Yup, it’s playing catch up.

[SFLcane]

Is that a storm?

[AtlanticWind]

Would not be surprised if NHC goes up to 50% at 8pm outlook.

[toad strangler]

Is that a storm?

https://i.postimg.cc/JhJhJcXb/7-DDAB5-DA-F3-C0-48-DE-A3-A8-439-BA662-C023.gif

Verbatim there perhaps a depression? But, like others have alluded to already, just as good a chance if not better of just a sub tropical low flinging a bunch of moisture through the area. Once a low of some kind actually pops on this side we'll know more.

[Spacecoast]

median EC ensemble tracks over Cape Coral, LakeO, & Port St Lucie

[cycloneye]

50%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from
the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move
slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the
northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter
part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[AtlanticWind]

Up to 50% at 8pm

[NDG]

This might be the year the Euro leads the pack again.

[Iceresistance]

If it develops, it may not cause a noticeable cold water trail due to it’s forward motion. But there is some uncertainty to that as well.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This thing will likely be a sloppy sheared mess in the Gulf, but once it exits out into the open Atlantic it may encounter a better environment in the way of increased upper-level divergence and baroclinic support. We''ll also have to see if it can ride the Gulf Stream like some models are showing which would likely aid it as well.

[skyline385]

Looks like EURO might be caving in towards the GFS with the shift southwards

[cane5]

Unless your 24 hours out no place is safe and who the heck knows if we get a medium grade tropical system. As I ve said throw historical mean out the door this girl is lookin to go wherever she wants.

[Cat5James]

Looks like EURO might be caving in towards the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/hrAlfiU.png

The GFS has a much different look 90 hours out then the Euro.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

18z EPS: