Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
You can’t really take each run for face value in this infancy stage. The key here is that it’s still showing something.
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
The 18z GFS is starting to take a turn at 162 hours out, and deepening. Hurricane at 189 hours out. Right before it hits cuba it's down to 978 mb which is a pretty rapid drop for a day.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:32 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Keldeo1997
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Looks like it finally develops over Jamacia.
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StPeteMike
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Seems what does develop, or if, will be small and compact for a good amount of time. Which will allow pretty rapid intensification.
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Heads up Florida. Gaining latitude much earlier this run
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Keldeo1997
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Keldeo1997
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Massive Left turn
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Cpv17 wrote:You can’t really take each run for face value in this infancy stage. The key here is that it’s still showing something.
Yea not sure why single runs are being taken at face value as you are right, the key value here is that its showing something. Anything beyond 120 hours, one should be looking for trends between runs.
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
GFS showing the same East Coast trough that the 12Z Euro had in this time frame. Let’s see if it holds.
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skyline385
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tolakram
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
The GFS almost always intensifies storms past 5 days. The important part, in my opinion, is that some kind of storm is still forming in the same place. Regardless of how strong the GFS has been rather consistent with vorticity in this area in a similar time frame.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
The waters near the FL west coast are the warmest in the Gulf right now (30-31C+). The system is running right over them on 18Z.
Last edited by skyline385 on Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Keldeo1997
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Panama city about to get wrecked.
Edit: Right into Destin
Edit: Right into Destin
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
933mb, lower than last run even with delayed development
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cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
skyline385 wrote:The waters near the FL west coast are the warmest in the Gulf right now (31C+). The system is running right over them on 18Z.
https://i.imgur.com/l31eUj9.png
Also, just south of Cuba are very warm and that is why it gets going big time there.
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SunnyThoughts
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Thought this run would end up being much farther East. Didn't turn out that way. Few miles East from last run, but not much. I know location doesn't mean much this far out, but argg.
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