Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[Blown Away]

pretty big cluster near FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/HLvdMfZN/VVVV.gif

222 hours out, we will take it then recurve on the next few cycles. What we dont want to see is a repeat of 1935.

Yeah, the SW Atlantic is ripe for development and this has the potential to be a TD to hurricane in a 3 day period like the GFS has shown. Many Bahama/SFL examples of quick developing storms in the past.

[jlauderdal]

pretty big cluster near FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/HLvdMfZN/VVVV.gif

222 hours out, we will take it then recurve on the next few cycles. What we dont want to see is a repeat of 1935.

Yeah, the SW Atlantic is ripe for development and this has the potential to be a TD to hurricane in a 3 day period like the GFS has shown. Many Bahama/SFL examples of quick developing storms in the past.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/zBVJxkLv/06z-GEFS.jpg [/url]

Cycloneye and msbee will be joining us here shortly. All Erin is doing in SE Florida is bringing in more dry air and seaweed, which is the last thing we need.

[Blown Away]

GFS keeps flipping back n forth from GOA to off FL East Coast depending on the strength of the 591 HP. The speed of Erin's departure into the N Atlantic I believe is a big factor.

[Cpv17]

When will we get a number for this system?

I would imagine either today or tomorrow.

[Teban54]

Judging by the current conditions alone, the wave certainly seems to be focusing on the southern lobe.

[HurricaneBelle]

Getting concerned about this in Florida, so I'm having the next model run of the GFS delivered to my house

[Stratton23]

Convection is really starting to consolidate more around the far southern end of the wave, around 7-8 N latitude which is really far south, almost on the same latitude as northern SA, global models might be too far north where they try to develop this, just based on seeing where the convection is concentrating, i have a suspicion this will going into the caribbean at a farther south latitude than what global models have happening

[SFLcane]

Convection is really starting to consolidate more around the far southern end of the wave, around 7-8 N latitude which is really far south, almost on the same latitude as northern SA, global models might be too far north where they try to develop this, just based on seeing where the convection is concentrating, i have a suspicion this will going into the caribbean at a farther south latitude than what global models have happening

I'd like an invest right about....now

[cycloneye]

The only thing I say is that southern area looks very interesting and yes, let the invest be up.

[StPeteMike]

The southern AOI definitely seems to be getting its act together, mind that it’s still dealing with the interaction of the ITZ and will likely do so for the next couple days.

I think we will see the NHC move the orange blob further south and flatten it out some once they tag this as an invest.

[BobHarlem]

The 12z icon doesn't develop this wave at all. Reflection gets into the Turks and Caicos and turns north. Same with the canadian.

[SFLcane]

The 12z icon doesn't develop this wave at all. Reflection gets into the Turks and Caicos and turns north.

Icon is trash

[Cpv17]

It should be tagged later today, for sure by tomorrow, IMO.

[KAlexPR]

ASCAT-B pass from about 4 hours ago.

[SFLcane]

Here is another one..

[Beef Stew]

Have to imagine this gets tagged pretty imminently. Definitely has the makings of a another system to watch closely- and we haven’t even hit 8/20 yet! Early/mid August seems to have finally come alive after a decade.

[Weathertracker96]

If the southern lobe wins out, that’ll be interesting because it’s pretty far south. Hopefully we get an invest soon.

[Stratton23]

GFS looks like its still developing the northern portion of the wave, based on satellite imagery, i have my doubts that global models are seeing this in real time all that good, if this southern portion becomes the dominant low, that will have absolutely significant effects on a track

[LAF92]

GFS looks like its still developing the northern portion of the wave, based on satellite imagery, i have my doubts that global models are seeing this in real time all that good, if this southern portion becomes the dominant low, that will have absolutely significant effects on a track

That’s what I was thinking. Also the 12z ICON has a strong trough bring a front to the gulf coast, I’m not buying that on August

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS attempts to "bridge the ridge" across the Gulf Coast which prevents an immediate recurve. Westward it will likely go as a result. Several ensembles from both camps (GFS and Euro) show this possibility.