2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#121 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 01, 2026 9:45 am

cycloneye wrote:The April CanSIPS run for ASO has very warm waters in the subtropics and not so warm for MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/8AAO2XO.png

Honestly we've seen worse, the MDR is still in decent shape there even even with the warm subtropics. With that being said I don't think that'll be enough to trigger a 2023-level countermeasure against ENSO.
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Re: 2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#122 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 01, 2026 10:03 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The April CanSIPS run for ASO has very warm waters in the subtropics and not so warm for MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/8AAO2XO.png

Honestly we've seen worse, the MDR is still in decent shape there even even with the warm subtropics. With that being said I don't think that'll be enough to trigger a 2023-level countermeasure against ENSO.



No matter how warm the MDR may be by peak time, the El Niño shear will be plenty.

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Re: 2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#123 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Apr 03, 2026 10:17 am

It's trying...again the CFS and CanSIPS do think we're gonna see a decent warmup in the MDR headed into the season. I would like to believe this might give the basin some sporadic opportunities for MDR activity (again, E of 55W or so) in an otherwise hostile background state if it sustains itself.
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Re: 2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#124 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Apr 03, 2026 10:17 am

I know that there's rightfully a lot of interest in this upcoming season's total activity/ACE/impacts and that jazz. But what I'm personally very curious to see is if this season keeps the Atlantic's 11-year streak of producing a borderline or bona fide Category 5 system alive or not. 11 consecutive years of 155+ mph hurricanes is absolutely unprecedented in Atlantic recorded history, and one ought to think that such would come to an end at some point.

Whether it's pure luck that the Atlantic managed to generate a storm or more in the right place at the right time that they blow up into monsters the past 11 years or if something changed back in 2015 that ultimately raised the potential ceiling for storms in general, I think this year will be a good litmus test to the nature of this particular pattern. I think it would be quite telling if this season lives up to its below-average expectations, yet somehow produces a storm or two that attains such powerful strengths despite generally unfavorable background conditions.
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