MJO

[Hurricaneman]

It looks lie the MJO might become more favorable in the next 3 to 7 days

[Jim Hughes]

However, there is one very big problem with this type of forecast - in a sense, the forecaster is forced to make a pledge to the public that a given season will behave a certain way, which is wonderful if it turns out exactly as they say it will, however, if it doesn't, the public will blame the profession for not knowing what it's talking about.

Frank

I also have to wonder if a conflict of interest could not arise within these agencies because of what their jobs are. I will dance gingerly around this since I do not want to disrespect anyone's integrity. I am just raising a question from my own perspective of what I have seen lately.

Irene is a good example. Many threads within this forum questioned her being a named a tropical storm prior to the 15z update. I am not sure about anyones expertise though.

In yesterday 5am discussion it more or less said she was no longer a TS but they were waiting for another satellite fly over before downgrading her to TD.

Would these things have occurred if we were in a strong El Nino year and NOAA had forecasted below average activity? I have noticed the past 2-3 years that re con planes are going out much more frequently to check out systems...not just because there are more or for research.

It's almost seems like they are trying to squeeze every MPH that they can get out of every system to pad NOAA's or Gray's pre-season forecast numbers.

You worked for the government and you know how allocated dollars can disappear especially with this tight fisted administration. Bad results mean no more dollars... Just a thought.

[Windtalker1]

here Brian Norcross states that the MJO will become more favorable next week .

[Frank2]

I believe that the NHC and other taxpayer-funded agencies should only be there in a "fire house" role (which has been the case since the NHC began many years ago), and not get themselves involved in making predictions (not forecasts, but predictions) that could possibly be sensationalized by the media or general public.

To me, a forecast is one that relies on what is on the map already, whether on a local, regional, hemispheric, or global scale (micro or macro-meteorology). On the other hand, a prediction is weather and related events which are foretold to happen sometimes many months or even a year in advance. Of course, this is an old practice, done since the late 1700's - and is called The Farmer's Almanac.

A good example is NOAA's Tsunami Warning Center. Their mission is to provide warnings when an earthquake has occurred - not to try to predict possible tsunamis weeks or months in advance.

In fact, the long-term goals of the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) are not to improved these long-range prediction skills, but, to develop better hurricane models used by the NHC to forecast in short term instances - such as a landfalling hurricane.

Frank

[x-y-no]

However, there is one very big problem with this type of forecast - in a sense, the forecaster is forced to make a pledge to the public that a given season will behave a certain way, which is wonderful if it turns out exactly as they say it will, however, if it doesn't, the public will blame the profession for not knowing what it's talking about.

Frank

I also have to wonder if a conflict of interest could not arise within these agencies because of what their jobs are. I will dance gingerly around this since I do not want to disrespect anyone's integrity. I am just raising a question from my own perspective of what I have seen lately.

Irene is a good example. Many threads within this forum questioned her being a named a tropical storm prior to the 15z update. I am not sure about anyones expertise though.

In yesterday 5am discussion it more or less said she was no longer a TS but they were waiting for another satellite fly over before downgrading her to TD.

Would these things have occurred if we were in a strong El Nino year and NOAA had forecasted below average activity? I have noticed the past 2-3 years that re con planes are going out much more frequently to check out systems...not just because there are more or for research.

It's almost seems like they are trying to squeeze every MPH that they can get out of every system to pad NOAA's or Gray's pre-season forecast numbers.

You worked for the government and you know how allocated dollars can disappear especially with this tight fisted administration. Bad results mean no more dollars... Just a thought.

Two reasons why this is nonsense.

First, as far as I know, there is no overlap between those doing season forecasts and those doing operational forecasts, so the personal motivation is not there.

Second, this hypothesis presumes that they have some foreknowlege of what the remainder of the season is going to do, else how could they know that padding the numbers won't cause a large error on the low side in the season forecast? IOW, it would take real skill in seasonal forecasting to decide whether it would benefit them mid-season to fake the numbers in order to demonstrate a phony skill at seasonal forecasting.

[x-y-no]

I believe that the NHC and other taxpayer-funded agencies should only be there in a "fire house" role (which has been the case since the NHC began many years ago), and not get themselves involved in making predictions (not forecasts, but predictions) that could possibly be sensationalized by the media or general public.

To me, a forecast is one that relies on what is on the map already, whether on a local, regional, hemispheric, or global scale (micro or macro-meteorology). On the other hand, a prediction is weather and related events which are foretold to happen sometimes many months or even a year in advance. Of course, this is an old practice, done since the late 1700's - and is called The Farmer's Almanac.

A good example is NOAA's Tsunami Warning Center. Their mission is to provide warnings when an earthquake has occurred - not to try to predict possible tsunamis weeks or months in advance.

In fact, the long-term goals of the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) are not to improved these long-range prediction skills, but, to develop better hurricane models used by the NHC to forecast in short term instances - such as a landfalling hurricane.

Frank

I'm trying to understand what your point is here. Do you oppose all research in climatology, or just government involvement in such reasearch, or what exactly?

[wxwatcher91]

latest:

[cycloneye]

latest:

It looks like the Atlantic is out of the very unfavorable MJO but still the favorable phase has not entered the basin.All the pacific is in the wet phase and as a result there are now 3 invests in the WPAC and a TD at the EPAC.Those conditions slowly but surly will spread into the atlantic and I estimate by the ladder part of august meaning from the 20th and beyond we will begin to see activity picking up.

[Jim Hughes]

Jan,

You took part of what I said out of context. I was referring to when one is sitting on the fence on a very tough call regarding whether a system should be either named or bumped up 5 mph to become a hurricane.

I know very well that these are two separate organization but they may possibly tend to be swayed subliminally. Come on this is human nature. Any group of individuals watch out for their own in an indirect manner. I do not care if you are talking about religion or the police having a Blue Flu day.

BTW I seriously doubt anyone would find fault in either NOAA's or Gray's forecast if 25-30 storms occurred. So your comments about over forecasting do not hold water with me just like mine evidently do not with you.


Jim

[x-y-no]

Jan,

You took part of what I said out of context. I was referring to when one is sitting on the fence on a very tough call regarding whether a system should be either named or bumped up 5 mph to become a hurricane.

So why didn't they upgrade Arlene to a hurricane? Lots of people argued they should have. If ever such a hidden bias ought to have manifested, that would be the time, IMHO.

I know very well that these are two separate organization but they may possibly tend to be swayed subliminally. Come on this is human nature. Any group of individuals watch out for their own in an indirect manner. I do not care if you are talking about religion or the police having a Blue Flu day.

BTW I seriously doubt anyone would find fault in either NOAA's or Gray's forecast if 25-30 storms occurred. So your comments about over forecasting do not hold water with me just like mine evidently do not with you.

Jim

I disagree. That result would be a huge bust of the season forecasts.

[TampaFl]

latest:

It looks like the Atlantic is out of the very unfavorable MJO but still the favorable phase has not entered the basin.All the pacific is in the wet phase and as a result there are now 3 invests in the WPAC and a TD at the EPAC.Those conditions slowly but surly will spread into the atlantic and I estimate by the ladder part of august meaning from the 20th and beyond we will begin to see activity picking up.

Cyclone, what link has this map that is posted showing the MJO?

(Suggestion, Could we post the map some where on Storm2K so I (we) do not have to hunt for the post to veiw the current status of the MJO).

Thanks for your help.

Robert

[Jim Hughes]

remember though that Arlene, Cindy, and Frankin all reached 70mph just 4mph under hurricane threshold...

another big question is whether anything will form at 5pm or 11pm today... if not today is the first day in I think 27 ot 28 days with no tropical activity...

I believe we had a slight lull between Franklin and Harvey late last month. Not much just a little over a day.

[Jim Hughes]

So why didn't they upgrade Arlene to a hurricane? Lots of people argued they should have. If ever such a hidden bias ought to have manifested, that would be the time, IMHO.

Well if one was to look at it from a cynical way and I am NOT since I specifically said subliminally I will answer your question since you seem to think that my comments were so important. Your question could be easily answered by the timing.

Lets see... early forecast numbers were above average but way lower than August updated numbers.......It's only late June....Models show good chances of a couple of systems developing very soon ....maybe even more if you believe the outlooks.....A-Storm not important at all in the whole scheme of things ..... Especially if they think like you.... that a final total well above their outlook .....would be considered a bust....your words not mine.

Five weeks later....seven days into August...several days right after the new updated outlook calling for a big increase in all storm totals....

Models now show no activity ahead for quite some time...MJO will not be favorable etc....We need eight hurricanes and four majors....TS Irene is very important now in the overall picture.

Again ...I do NOT think that this occurs. I was talking about conflict of interests and how it might be perceived by the public.

In much the way a good deal of the public roasts OCM's when they go out and show pictures, of an area a 100 miles away , of a weather event, that they were forecasting locally. But it never occurred locally.


Jim

[WindRunner]

Interesting to note the extremely favorable MJO over TD-6E

[Jim Hughes]

Interesting to note the extremely favorable MJO over TD-6E

30 day SOI average recently swings negative ..MJO moves ....EPAC get more enhanced thunderstorms..TS forms...Just pointing out that it's really not that unusual if you follow everything as a whole....Last month opposite..


Jim

[TampaFl]

Bump

[wxwatcher91]

I know the image refreshes itself but for the purpose of bringing it down to the latest post here it is



wet MJO making a come back at least in the south and east Atlantic

[abajan]

...wet MJO making a come back at least in the south and east Atlantic

Yes indeed. I just noticed that myself. The next several weeks should be very interesting.

[WindRunner]

Very interesting could easily be a huge understatement, but we'll see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls...hop on board the Active train and get rrready for a wild ride!!