TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

as with Irene this too will go out to sea. I read some where that it is not a good year for East coast storms. Which is fine with me. Fish I will call it.

As I read this morniing I see alot of other are saying fish too or will not make it. I got shot down yesterday on this. But by it taking a path like Irene that is why I said what I did.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050814 1200 050815 0000 050815 1200 050816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 46.5W 14.7N 48.1W 15.8N 49.6W 16.7N 51.2W
BAMM 13.6N 46.5W 14.5N 48.0W 15.2N 49.5W 15.9N 51.0W
A98E 13.6N 46.5W 13.9N 48.1W 14.7N 49.8W 15.7N 51.8W
LBAR 13.6N 46.5W 14.5N 47.9W 15.7N 49.3W 17.0N 50.7W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 25KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050816 1200 050817 1200 050818 1200 050819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 52.7W 18.9N 55.8W 20.8N 59.7W 23.0N 63.5W
BAMM 16.5N 52.5W 17.4N 55.4W 18.8N 59.3W 20.7N 63.6W
A98E 16.7N 53.7W 18.9N 57.7W 21.4N 61.2W 25.1N 64.7W
LBAR 18.2N 52.3W 20.7N 56.0W 24.3N 60.2W 27.5N 62.2W
SHIP 34KTS 45KTS 55KTS 60KTS
DSHP 34KTS 45KTS 55KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 46.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 250DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models:

The question is if it will survive the very hostile conditions that are prevailing now.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 141259
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
B. 14/1131Z (68)
C. 13.5N/9
D. 46.3W/3
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/12HRS -14/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/ PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC IS 88NM FROM DG CNVCTN MAKING THE
DT UNCLASSIFIABLE. FT IS BASED ON PT.

AODT: T1.5 (SHEAR)

WHALING

[Thunder44]

This system is worse than Irene when it was sheared. I can barely make it out a center and it's looks very weak.

[storms in NC]

last few frames it is trying it best to make a come back

[Hyperstorm]

TD 10 does seem to have weakened to a wave this morning. The only thunderstorms are on the northern part of the wave axis. There's evidence of a boad dissipating low-level swirl to the southwest of those squalls.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose3.gif

This morning, there is still an identifiable LLC, but EXTREMELY weak near 13.5N, 46.5W. It has been weakening gradually since early this morning and it should definitely open up during the next 6 hours. It may have to be downgraded to a remnant swirl at 11am because it is so weak. The environment is still very hostile for continued development in the near future.

I don't think this is Irene-Junior, like it has been said. Irene had a much larger LLC that tightened up as each day passed. This one has an extremely tiny LLC, that will definitely NOT survive the environment it's in. That's not to say that a new LLC may develop LATER ON near the "deep" convection, but right now the current LLC will not survive. Even that convection may die off without a forcing mechanism.

I won't make any more speculations on this system until it shows signs of making a comeback, if ever...

[Scorpion]

I am getting sick of this BS happening in the Atlantic. Where is all the shear coming from? There is a favorable MJO, no El Nino, warm SST's. Why were conditions better in July? And when will they get good?

[wxman57]

Not by any stretch of the imagination is TD 10 still a depression. All that remains is a very weak eddy of low-level cumulus clouds that continues to separate from the convection well to the northeast. There is no way (no way, Jose?) that such a system would qualify for upgrading to a TD. One of the requirements is convection over an LLC. It does not appear as though any convection is building near the weak swirl of low clouds.

Here are a few McIdas images:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose6.gif

Zoome in more:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose7.gif

[cinlfla]

I am getting sick of this BS happening in the Atlantic. Where is all the shear coming from? There is a favorable MJO, no El Nino, warm SST's. Why were conditions better in July? And when will they get good?

I agree!!!!!

[Brent]

I am getting sick of this BS happening in the Atlantic. Where is all the shear coming from? There is a favorable MJO, no El Nino, warm SST's. Why were conditions better in July? And when will they get good?

I am too... it's Mid-August and I'm more than ready for something. This is pathetic right now.

[wxman57]

Keep your shirts on (please!), I think we're going to see quite a bit of action in another week or so. I doubt I'll get another weekend off through September (and I'm working today). We're still seeing the effects of that SAL across the tropics, but it's slowly eroding. As the NAO goes positive over the next 2-3 days, high pressure should build across the North Atlantic and I think we'll see action heating up across the deep tropics, including the Caribbean Sea and eventually the GoM. All hell will break out very soon!

[wxwatcher91]

All hell will break out very soon!

ah yes... these are the words that comfort our hurricane-watching community

[wx247]

It's toast!

[storms in NC]

It no more now lol

000
WTNT25 KNHC 141438
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005
1500Z SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.5W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...DISSIPATING
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.5W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 46.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

TD ten is dying??
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Things better get active soon.

Just kidding

[Brent]

Keep your shirts on (please!), I think we're going to see quite a bit of action in another week or so. I doubt I'll get another weekend off through September (and I'm working today). We're still seeing the effects of that SAL across the tropics, but it's slowly eroding. As the NAO goes positive over the next 2-3 days, high pressure should build across the North Atlantic and I think we'll see action heating up across the deep tropics, including the Caribbean Sea and eventually the GoM. All hell will break out very soon!

Good because I'm bored...