Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#121 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:30 am

Still all the debris from Katrina are in front of my house, and in front of many houses in my neighborhood to be pick up.

wzrgirl1 · #122 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:31 am

HURAKAN wrote:Still all the debris from Katrina are in front of my house, and in front of many houses in my neighborhood to be pick up.

Yes we still have many trees and branches in our area that haven't been picked up either.

#123 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:33 am

#124 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:36 am

Ignore the big cane thing E. of FL, 96L in Mexico in 12 days by the CMC. :yayaya:

CHRISTY · #125 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:38 am

the NHC is not sure if its moveing west or west north west i think this one has south florida written all over it! i think people here in mami dade need to pay attention because this is not to far away!

cajungal · #126 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:38 am

cjrciadt wrote:

GFDI looks like it turns it north. I wonder how reliable that model is. We sure don't need another tropical system threatning the gulf coast. Usually storms don't go into Mx/Tx this late in the season. Usually the ridge breaks down enough to allow it turn north. I remember when TWC kept saying Lili was heading for Texas in the beginning. But, my gut instinct on that one said Louisiana.

#127 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:40 am

Kinda scary looking heh cajungal? Hopefully since we're still so far out that the GFDL is wrong.

#128 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:43 am

cjrciadt wrote:

Bad thing is that the NHC likes to split the difference when models are this spread out. Guess where that puts S. FL. :roll:

ronjon · #129 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:45 am

Looks like from the 12Z model suite that the GFDL and BAM Deep are picking up on a more northerly component of flow toward days 4 and 5 of the model runs. Both models slow the system down & intensify 96L into a hurricane by then. Looks like if the system stays weak it passes west near Cuba but if it strenghtens, it gets influenced by a mid-latitude trough and turns more northward into the GOM.

wzrgirl1 · #130 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:46 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

ameriwx2003 · #131 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:47 am

Maybe the GFDL is on to something.. we will see but the ETA seems to possibly lend support. take a look at the 500MB high the ETA starts to retrograde the 500MB high westward.. Interesting to see if this does indeed happen..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

#132 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:55 am

ronjon wrote:Looks like from the 12Z model suite that the GFDL and BAM Deep are picking up on a more northerly component of flow toward days 4 and 5 of the model runs. Both models slow the system down & intensify 96L into a hurricane by then. Looks like if the system stays weak it passes west near Cuba but if it strenghtens, it gets influenced by a mid-latitude trough and turns more northward into the GOM.

bam bams arent good with systems this far north more like systems in deep tropics like our new td not to say they cant be correct but keep on an on the globals instead

wxmann_91 · #133 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:13 am

This was written yesterday by NWS Corpus Christi:

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS ON TROPICAL SYSTEM
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULFMEX. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG TO AFFECT SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COME LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
MOST MODELS EITHER KEEP SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR DO NOT DEVELOP IT
MUCH. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SYSTEM FORMATION...BUT MOVES SYSTEM
ON MEXICAN COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WELL SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE NEAR
TAMPICO. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BECAUSE IF UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND/OR
MOVES MORE EAST THAN PROGGED...SYSTEM COULD MOVE MORE NORTH THAN
PROGGED. RIDGE DOES WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO EXPECT A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

x-y-no · #134 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:14 am

cjrciadt wrote:
Ignore the big cane thing E. of FL, 96L in Mexico in 12 days by the CMC.

Is that like "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"?

:lol:

KatDaddy · #135 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:24 am

I must say this is slightly concerning....the GFS coming out

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_114l.gif

Ridge moving E and invest 96L drifting NW of Yucatan

#136 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:27 am

I know that these models (GFS above, for example) are concerning for those in TX, etc., but can we mention, perhaps, how the model run is getting the system there? For example, in the run above, is it south of FL, or going over the Keys. Those of us in the southern part of the state think that's important too

KatDaddy · #137 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:30 am

Sure Np.

It shows a rather week system but remember this is one model out of many. It could very well be much stronger.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_066l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

Here is the link for the entire model run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

#138 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:30 am

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/prvs.html

Circulation is finally noted at the easternmost part of the convection. Now, the game begins!

x-y-no · #139 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:33 am

Canelaw99 wrote:I know that these models (GFS above, for example) are concerning for those in TX, etc., but can we mention, perhaps, how the model run is getting the system there? For example, in the run above, is it south of FL, or going over the Keys. Those of us in the southern part of the state think that's important too

So far, all the global model guidance except the Canadian keeps it well south of us, either through the straits or even over Cuba.

Derek Ortt · #140 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:33 am

I am more concerned about what may happen here

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