TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

530AM NHC TWO

A large tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined surface low
pressure system is generating a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms about 1450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This
system has continued to become better organized this morning...
and a tropical depression could form later today as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave about
1050 miles east of the Windward Islands...and also about 400 miles
west of the developing tropical wave and low pressure system...is
moving westward at about 10 mph. Shower activity has decreased and
further development is unlikely as the system will likely merge
later today with the low pressure system located to the east.

[Thunder44]

New image this could be a TD 11am if visiblie images and QS confirm a closed surface circulation:

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Here is the 00z Euro. I cropped the storm plots from days 4,5,6 so the path can be seen. Pretty far north so maybe fish but not recurving on them days.

[Emmett_Brown]

So, according to the TWO from NHC, these systems are merging. IMO, this means 2 things:

1. It will take more time to organize. Currently the 2 systems are connected by a trough... it will take at least 48 hours IMO for this to consolidate into a single circulation. Until it completes this and a center becomes evident, model runs are not that useful.

2. The overall size of the system/envelop will be larger. There will be ample moisture from this large envelop to allow for strenthening. Large hurricanes sometimes result from such large areas of moisture.

Will it clear the islands? I think it will, but it will be close. High pressure will be firmly in control north of the system in 48 hours. Also note that the GFS below shows the system elongated E to W at that time, meaning it still hasnt got its act together. Weak systems typically track west "Weaker Wester".

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N 37.5W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N39W 14N35W. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS UNLIKELY AS
IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MERGE LATER
TODAY WITH THE 11.5N 42.5W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
11.5N 42.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W NEAR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 56W FROM 10N
TO 20N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

[rnbaida]

Well....This is still going to be a fish... It will get close to the US and then turn N according to the models, but it is still early to tell.

[Noah]

So both invest 98 and invest 90 are going to be fish??

[HURAKAN]

03/1145 UTC 13.4N 38.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

DING DONG, DING DONG. A DEPRESSION IS AT THE DOOR!!!

[ThunderMate]

facts please!!

[rnbaida]

03/1145 UTC 13.4N 38.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

DING DONG, DING DONG. A DEPRESSION IS AT THE DOOR!!!

TD at 11am?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still an Invest on the NRLMRY site so no TD yet, but probably later today during the afternoon hours.

[HURAKAN]

03/1145 UTC 13.4N 38.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

DING DONG, DING DONG. A DEPRESSION IS AT THE DOOR!!!

TD at 11am?

Possibly, but knowing the NHC, I will say they could wait until 5 PM to see more organzation. In a few more hours we will know.

[cheezyWXguy]

wait...wasnt the one farther east supposed to develop? The TWD says the one farther west is supposed to develop while this one merges with that

[HURAKAN]

This looks better than a lot of weak tropical storms we have seen in the past, even this year. It seems that 90L is becoming quickly the dominant circulation and 98L is just being overwhelmed. A TD soon!!! Florence, get ready to shine!!!

[Bane]

Well....This is still going to be a fish... It will get close to the US and then turn N.

You forgot to put in your forecast disclaimer.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,98L is history at NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Refresh it.

This will be Florence,but a longtracker that I like to follow,meaning those systems that not bother any landmasses.(Maybe Bermuda will have to watch it down the road)

[Noah]

This will be Florence,but a longtracker that I like to follow,meaning those systems that not bother any landmasses.(Maybe Bermuda will have to watch it down the road)



Does this mean both 90 and 98 will be fish? Are we so sure here?

[rnbaida]

Looking Good

[perk]

So cycloneye you think this system will recurve.

[HURAKAN]

Does this mean both 90 and 98 will be fish? Are we so sure here?

98L is no more, now the whole system is 90L, or Florence in a few days.